Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball on tap with roughly 30 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: Indiana State (-1.5, 146) at Evansville
Indiana State (9-14) has lost five in a row and just came up short against Valparaiso 76-72 in overtime, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Evansville (5-17) has lost four straight and just fell to Northern Iowa 71-55, failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Indiana State listed as a 1-point road favorite.
Sharps have jumped on Indiana State laying short chalk, pushing the Sycamores up from -1 to -1.5, with several other shops reaching as high as -2 or even -2.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the road favorite.
At DraftKings, Indiana State is taking in 75% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars, a one-way Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the Sycamores minus the points.
Ken Pom has Indiana State winning by one point (72-71). He also has the Sycamores ranked higher (210th vs 287th).
With this in mind, pros may prefer to mitigate some risk and play Indiana State on the moneyline at -135.
At DraftKings, the Sycamores are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and a hefty 93% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of heavy sharp action siding with Indiana State to earn a straight up road victory.
Indiana State has the better offensive efficiency (238th vs 319th), defensive efficiency (175th vs 223rd), effective field goal percentage (143rd vs 301st) and limit their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (111th vs 278th).
Evansville is just 3-7 at home this season, the worst home record in the Missouri Valley Conference.
9 p.m. ET: NC State (-2.5, 160.5) at SMU
NC State (16-6) has won four in a row and just crushed Wake Forest 96-78, easily covering as 5.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, SMU (15-6) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Louisville 88-74 and failing to cover as 9.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with NC State listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public sees two good teams facing off and is leaning toward home dog SMU plus the points.
However, despite 56% of spread bets backing SMU we’ve actually seen the line move further toward NC State -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp contrarian “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the road chalk Wolfpack.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some wiggle room in the event of a close game may prefer a Wolfpack moneyline play at -140.
NC State has the better offensive efficiency (19th vs 21st), defensive efficiency (39th vs 74th), effective field goal percentage (17th vs 38th) and three-point shooting (7th vs 55th).
The Wolfpack also do a better job of not turning it over on offense (13th vs 127th) as well as turning their opponents over on defense (51st vs 122nd).
NC State is 5-1 on the road, the 3rd best road record in the ACC.
11 p.m. ET: UNLV at Fresno State (-1.5, 150.5)
UNLV (10-11) has dropped three straight and just fell to Nevada 89-76, failing to cover as 8-point road dogs. On the other hand, Fresno State (10-11) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 79-62 win over Air Force, easily covering as 9.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Fresno State listed as a 1-point home favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know who to take.
However, despite this roughly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Fresno State creep up from -1 to -1.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, you wouldn’t expect a line to move if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have sided with the Bulldogs at home.
Ken Pom has Fresno State winning by three points (76-73).
Bettors looking to gain some added cushion have also targeted Fresno State on the moneyline at -120.
At DraftKings, Fresno State is receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of heavy pro action siding with a straight up Fresno State victory.
Fresno State has the better scoring defense, allowing 70 PPG compared to 78 PPG allowed by UNLV.
The Bulldogs also have the better defensive efficiency (69th vs 166th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (126th vs 237th), turn their opponents over more often (43rd vs 99th) and have the better free-throw shooting (63rd vs 232rd).
