Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 35 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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9 p.m. ET: USC at Northwestern (-2.5, 140.5)

USC (13-8) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games but just upset Michigan State 70-64, winning outright as 4-point home dogs. On the other hand, Northwestern (12-10) has dropped three straight and just fell to Wisconsin 75-69, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs.

This line opened with Northwestern listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to grab the points with USC, who is coming off a big win and has the better won-loss record. However, despite 60% of spread bets backing USC at DraftKings we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Northwestern -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Northwestern, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.

Pros have specifically targeted Northwestern to win straight up (-145). At DraftKings, the Wildcats are receiving 34% of moneyline bets but a whopping 76% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Northwestern to earn a victory at home. Ken Pom has Northwestern winning by four points (72-68).

Northwestern has the better defensive efficiency (45th vs 77th), offensive rebound percentage (31% vs 27%) and takes better care of the ball (20th in turnover percentage compared to 123rd for USC). Northwestern has buy-low value as an unpopular home favorite on a losing skid against a sell-high popular dog off a big win. The Wildcats are 10-3 at home this season.

10 p.m. ET: Michigan State at UCLA (-3.5, 139)

Michigan State (18-3, ranked 9th) just saw their 13-game win streak come to an end, falling to USC 70-64 and losing outright as 4-point road favorites. Meanwhile, UCLA (16-6) have won five straight games and just crushed Oregon 78-52, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with UCLA listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is UCLA favored if Michigan State has the better record and ranking? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 66% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with Michigan State. However, despite two-thirds of spread bets backing Michigan State we’ve seen UCLA inch up from -2.5 to -3.5. This signals a sharp reverse line movement on UCLA, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.

UCLA is one of the top “fade the trendy dog” contrarian plays of the night as the Bruins are only receiving 34% of spread bets at DraftKings. Meanwhile, Circa is only showing 43% of spread bets but 58% of spread dollars on UCLA, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Those looking to mitigate some risk around a possible close game could instead play UCLA on the moneyline at -160. At DraftKings, UCLA is only receiving 23% of moneyline bets but 46% of moneyline dollars, a wiseguy split in favor of the Bruins winning straight up at home.

Ken Pom has UCLA winning by two points (70-68). UCLA has the better effective field goal percentage (54% vs 52%) and three-point shooting (35% vs 29%). UCLA ranks 5th in the country in forced turnover percentage. Michigan State ranks 207th. The Bruins enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on January 30th while the Spartans last played on February 1st. UCLA is 11-1 at home this season.

11 p.m. ET: Arizona at BYU (-2.5, 152.5)

Arizona (15-6, ranked 20th) has won four straight games and just held off Arizona State 81-72, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. Similarly, BYU (15-6) has also won four in a row and just edged Central Florida 81-75, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with BYU listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen BYU creep up from -1.5 to -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the action is even and the oddsmakers have no need to adjust the number. So, based on the line movement we can infer that the sharper wagers have backed BYU at home.

At DraftKings, BYU is receiving 53% of spread bets but 76% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added security in what might be a close game could target BYU on the moneyline (-145) instead of laying the points. At DraftKings, BYU is taking in 45% of moneyline bets but 76% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of wiseguy money banking on BYU to win straight up. Ken Pom has BYU winning by one point (77-76).

BYU has the better effective field goal percentage (57% vs 53%) and three-point shooting (38% vs 33%). BYU ranks 6th in offensive rebound percentage allowed. Arizona ranks 100th. BYU has fishy buy-low value as an unranked home favorite against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Cougars are 11-1 at home this season.

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