Today we have a loaded Super Tuesday slate of College Basketball on tap with 35 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Wisconsin (-1.5, 146.5) at Minnesota
Wisconsin (11-5) has won two straight and just upset Michigan 91-88, winning outright as 18.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Minnesota (10-6) just saw their five-game win streak come to an end, falling to USC 70-69 in overtime and losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 2-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short, especially after Wisconsin just took down Michigan, and 70% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with the Badgers.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Wisconsin dip down from -2 to -1.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Badgers to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Minnesota plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
Minnesota is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Gophers are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet game.
At DraftKings, Minnesota is taking in 30% of spread bets and 41% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Gophers are receiving 36% of spread bets and a whopping 70% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian discrepancy and further evidence of Pros out in Vegas backing the home dog.
Minnesota has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
The Gophers enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on December 9th at home while the Badgers just played on December 10th and are playing their second straight road game.
Minnesota is 9-1 at home. Wisconsin is 1-2 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Iowa State (-3.5, 151.5) at Kansas
Iowa State (16-0, ranked 2nd) is undefeated and just brushed aside Oklahoma State 83-71 but failed to cover as 18.5-point home favorites. Conversely, Kansas (11-5) has dropped two of their last three and just well to West Virginia 86-75, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 4-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so low and 74% of spread bets at DraftKings are hammering Iowa State minus the points.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Iowa State tick down from -4 to -3.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Kansas plus the points, as the line has moved toward the unpopular Jayhawks despite the overwhelming public love for Iowa State.
Kansas is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Jayhawks are only receiving 26% of spread bets at DraftKings in the most heavily bet, nationally televised game of the night on ESPN.
Kansas has buy-low value as an unranked dog coming off a loss against a sell-high ranked opponent.
The Jayhawks have additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Kansas has a notable edge at the free throw stripe (75%, 83rd compared to 69%, 281st), which could prove crucial in a close game.
9 p.m. ET: Baylor at Oklahoma State (-1.5, 166.5)
Baylor (10-5) has dropped three straight and just got rolled by Houston 77-55, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State (13-3) has lost two of their last three and just fell to Iowa State 83-71 but managed to cover as 18.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Baylor listed as a 2-point road favorite.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Oklahoma State flip from a 2-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the “dog to favorite” line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have sided with the home team.
At DraftKings, Oklahoma State is taking in 51% of spread bets but a hefty 68% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has Oklahoma State winning by one point (86-85). With this in mind, bettors looking to protect themselves may prefer a Cowboys moneyline play at -115.
Oklahoma State has the better defensive efficiency (77th vs 96th), effective field goal percentage (68th vs 81st) and free-throw shooting (62nd vs 151st).
Oklahoma State is 11-0 at home. Baylor is 0-2 on the road.
