Today we have a loaded slate of College Hoops on tap with roughly 35 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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9 p.m. ET: SMU (-1, 158.5) at Wake Forest
SMU (13-5) has dropped three of their last four and just fell to Virginia 72-68, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Wake Forest (11-7) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 69-68 win over Florida State but failed to cover as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with SMU listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so low and 71% of spread bets are laying the short chalk with the Mustangs.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen SMU dip down from -1.5 to -1, with some shops even down to a pick’em or showing Wake Forest a slight 1-point home favorite.
This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Demon Deacons, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public pounding the Mustangs.
At DraftKings, Wake Forest is taking in only 29% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars. At Circa, Wake Forest is receiving 50% of spread bets but a whopping 95% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a heightened “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home team.
Home conference dogs with a line move in their favor are 50-35 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Wake Forest has the better defensive efficiency (47th vs 83rd) and forces a higher percentage of turnovers (12th vs 89th).
Wake Forest is 8-3 at home this season. SMU is 1-3 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Georgia at Missouri (-1, 164.5)
Georgia (15-3, ranked 21st) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just dominated Arkansas 90-76, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Missouri (13-5) has dropped two of their last three and just came up short against LSU 78-70, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Missouri listed as a 1-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is Georgia the dog if they have the far better won-loss record and ranking?
The public says “the wrong team is favored” and 62% of spread bets are backing the Bulldogs.
However, despite Georgia receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Missouri remain steady at -1 and even touch -1.5 at some shops. In other words, we are seeing a bit of a wiseguy “line freeze” in favor of the Tigers at home, as the line has pretty much stayed the same despite the public backing the Bulldogs.
At DraftKings, Missouri is receiving 38% of spread bets and 48% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split. The Tigers are also one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as they are receiving less than 40% of tickets in one of the most heavily bet games of the night.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing Missouri on the moneyline at -115.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in 35% of moneyline bets and a whopping 70% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of respected pro money banking on a straight up Missouri victory.
Missouri has buy-low value as an unpopular unranked home team against a sell-high ranked and trendy road team.
Missouri is a perfect 11-0 at home this season.
11 p.m. ET: Kansas (-4.5, 156.5) at Colorado
Kansas (13-5, ranked 19th) has won two straight and just brushed aside Baylor 80-62, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Colorado (12-6) has dropped three in a row and just fell to West Virginia 72-61, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Kansas listed as a 5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 84% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Jayhawks.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Kansas fall from -5 to -4.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Kansas to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Colorado plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.
Colorado is the top “bet against the public” play of the night as the Buffaloes are only receiving 16% of spread bets in a nationally televised late-night tilt on ESPN.
The Buffaloes have additional betting system value as a buy-low unranked home dog on a losing skid against a sell-high ranked opponent on a winning streak.
Colorado has the better effective field goal percentage (73rd vs 82nd), turnover percentage (37th vs 52nd), offensive rebound percentage (87th vs 250th) and free-throw shooting (20th vs 61st).
Colorado is 9-2 at home. Kansas is 1-3 on the road.
Kansas will be without head coach Bill Self, who is currently hospitalized with an undisclosed illness.
