Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball on tap with nearly 40 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Arkansas (-2.5, 166.5) at Oklahoma
Arkansas (15-5, ranked 15th) has won two straight and just outlasted LSU 85-81 but failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Oklahoma (11-9) has dropped six in a row and just came up short against Missouri 88-87 in overtime but managed to covedr as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Arkansas listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 86% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with the Razorbacks.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Arkansas remain stagnant at -2.5.
Normally, if a team is garnering such heavy support you would expect to see them rise up from -2.5 to -3 or -3.5. The fact that this line has stayed right where it’s at despite the public pounding Arkansas signals a sharp “line freeze” in favor of Oklahoma plus the points.
Oklahoma is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Sooners are only receiving less than 20% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet nationally televised games of the night on ESPN.
At DraftKings, Oklahoma is taking in only 14% of spread bets but 39% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
The Sooners have buy-low value as an unranked home dog on a losing streak against a sell-high ranked opponent on a winning streak.
Oklahoma is 8-2 at home this season. Arkansas is 1-3 on the road.
10:30 p.m. ET: Grand Canyon at Nevada (-3.5, 141.5)
Grand Canyon (13-6) has won three in a row and just dismissed Fresno State 68-57, covering as 4.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Nevada (14-6) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to New Mexico 80-73 but managing to cover as 8.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Nevada listed as a 4-point home favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with the Wolf Pack at home.
However, despite receiving 58% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Nevada dip down from -4 to -3.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Grand Canyon plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite the public backing Nevada.
The Lopes offer “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 42% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet late night game on FS1.
Grand Canyon has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
At Circa, Grand Canyon is taking in 25% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Lopes from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Grand Canyon has the better defensive efficiency (27th vs 105th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (42nd vs 152nd) and do a better job of limiting offensive rebounds to their opponents (26th vs 116th).
11 p.m. ET: New Mexico (-4.5, 155.5) at UNLV
New Mexico (16-4) has won two in a row and just held off Nevada 80-73 but failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, UNLV (10-9) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to San Diego State 82-71 and failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with New Mexico listed as a 5-point road favorite.
The public sees an easy win and cover for New Mexico, who has the far better won-loss record.
However, despite receiving 74% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen New Mexico fall from -5 to -4.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering New Mexico to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with UNLV plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.
UNLV offers notable contrarian value as the Rebels are only receiving 26% of spread bets in the most heavily bet late game of the night on CBSSN.
Conference home dogs with at least a half point of line movement in their favor are 56-46 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season.
UNLV is 6-4 at home this season. New Mexico is 3-3 on the road.
