Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball action on tap with 29 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: Iowa (-5.5, 129.5) at Minnesota
Iowa (12-2, ranked 19th) has won four straight and just brushed aside UCLA 74-61, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Minnesota (9-5) has also won four in a row and just upset Northwestern 84-78, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Iowa listed as a 6.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 76% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with Iowa, who has the better won-loss record and ranking.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Iowa tumble from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Minnesota plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Gophers despite the public hammering the Hawkeyes.
Minnesota is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Gophers are only receiving roughly one-quarter of tickets in one of the most heavily bet games of the night.
At DraftKings, Minnesota is only taking in 24% of spread bets but 43% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split on the home dog.
The Gophers have buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.
Minnesota has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
When two teams in the Big Ten face off in conference play, the home dog is 7-5 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI this season and 98-72 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI since 2021.
Minnesota is 8-0 at home this season. Iowa is 0-2 on the road.
10 p.m. ET: Fresno State at San Jose State (-1.5, 146.5)
Fresno State (6-8) has dropped six straight and just came up short against Nevada 66-65 but managed to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, San Jose State (5-9) has lost four in a row and just fell to Utah State 96-78 but covered as 21.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Fresno State listed as a 1-point road favorite.
Sharps have pounced on San Jose State, moving the Spartans from a 1-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Spartans at home.
At DraftKings, San Jose State is taking in 61% of spread bets and a whopping 93% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money in favor of the home chalk.
Those looking to protect themselves in the event of a close game have also targeted the Spartans on the moneyline at -120.
At DraftKings, San Jose State is receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, a wiseguy split in favor of a straight up Spartans victory.
When two teams in the Mountain West face off in conference play, the home favorite is 9-1 (90%) straight up with an 8% ROI this season and 320-81 (80%) straight up with a 3% ROI since 2019.
San Jose State has the better offensive efficiency (136th vs 221st), offensive rebound percentage (80th vs 203rd), three-point shooting (106th vs 251st) and free-throw shooting (68th vs 118th).
San Jose State is 4-3 at home this season. Fresno State is 0-2 on the road.
11 p.m. ET: San Diego State at Nevada (-1.5, 142.5)
San Diego State (9-4) has won three in a row and just outlasted Boise State 110-107 in triple overtime but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Nevada (11-3) has won seven straight and just held off Fresno State 66-65 but failed to cover as 4.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Nevada listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Pros have quietly leaned toward the home chalk, as Nevada is being juiced up -1.5 (-115) across the market, while Circa, which caters to sharp bettors, has ticked up to Nevada -2.
At DraftKings, Nevada is taking in 66% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. At Circa, Nevada is receiving 70% of spread bets and 77% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the short home chalk.
Many pros have looked to gain some added cushion by targeting the Wolf Pack on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, Nevada is receiving 65% of moneyline bets and a hefty 95% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of big smart money backing the Wolf Pack to earn a straight up victory on their home court.
When two teams in the Mountain West face off in conference play, the home favorite is 9-1 (90%) straight up with an 8% ROI this season and 320-81 (80%) straight up with a 3% ROI since 2019.
Nevada takes better care of the ball, ranking 5th in turnover percentage compared to 257th for San Diego State.
The Wolf Pack are 7-1 at home this season.
