Today we have a loaded slate of postseason College Basketball on tap with 24 Conference Tournament games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
7 p.m. ET: Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech (-2.5, 151.5)
This is the first round of the ACC Tournament.
Wake Forest (16-15) is the 13-seed, has won two of their last three and just took down California 80-73 in their regular season finale, covering as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech (19-12) is the 12-seed, has dropped two of their last three and just came up short against Virginia 76-72 in their regular season finale but managed to cover as 11.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Virginia Tech listed as low as a 2-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have quietly laid the wood with the Hokies, driving Virginia Tech up from -2 to -2.5. Several shops are also juicing up Virginia Tech -2.5 (-115). Essentially, all movement and liability has come down on the Hokies minus the points.
At DraftKings, Virginia Tech is receiving 76% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars. At Circa, Virginia Tech is taking in 71% of spread bets and a whopping 90% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the Hokies.
Ken Pom has Virginia Tech winning by two points (77-75). He also has the Hokies ranked higher (56th vs 75th).
With this in mind, many pros have elected to gain some added protection by playing Virginia Tech on the moneyline at -145.
At DraftKings, Virginia Tech is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Hokies are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Once again, both books are displaying a wiseguy bet discrepancy in favor of a straight up Hokies victory.
Virginia Tech has the better defensive efficiency (61st vs 97th), three-point shooting (85th vs 170th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (131st vs 230th).
9 p.m. ET: Montana at Portland State (-2.5, 144.5)
This is the Big Sky Tournament semifinal.
Montana (17-15) is the 4-seed and just edged Northern Colorado 95-89 in yesterday’s third round matchup, winning outright as 4-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Portland State (20-10) is the 1-seed and just held off Idaho State 85-78 in the second round, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Portland State listed as low as a 2-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have sided with the short chalk, as Portland State has moved from -2 to -2.5 and is now being juiced up -2.5 (-115). Several books have touched as high as -3. We have never seen this line get down to -1.5 or less. Reading between the lines, all movement and liability has been on the side of the top seeded Vikings.
At Circa, Portland State is receiving 20% of spread bets and 54% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split from the wiseguys in the desert.
Ken Pom has Portland State winning by two points (72-70). He also has the Vikings ranked higher (141st vs 182nd).
As a result, bettors looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game may prefer a Vikings moneyline play at -150.
Portland State has the better defensive efficiency (46th vs 162nd), offensive rebound percentage (221st vs 334th), limit their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (48th vs 179th) and force more turnovers on defense (114th vs 316th).
Portland State enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Vikings last played on March 8th while the Grizzlies are playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
This is also a revenge play for the Vikings who went 0-2 against Montana in the regular season, losing 64-60 and 74-68.
11:30 p.m. ET: Idaho (-1.5, 148.5) vs Eastern Washington
This is the Big Sky Tournament semifinal.
Idaho (19-14) is the 7-seed and just edged Montana State 78-74 in the second round, covering as 1.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Eastern Washington (14-18) is the 3-seed and just took down Weber State 84-79 in the third round, covering as 3.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Eastern Washington listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is leaning toward Eastern Washington, who is the higher seeded team.
However, despite the public backing the Eagles we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of Idaho, driving the Vandals from a 1.5-point neutral site dog to a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement on Idaho.
At DraftKings, Idaho is receiving 42% of spread bets but 75% of spread dollars. At Circa, Idaho is taking in 33% of spread bets and over 90% of spread dollars. Both books are displaying a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Vandals.
Ken Pom has Idaho winning by one point (78-77).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to gain some added cushion by playing Idaho on the moneyline at -120.
At DraftKings, Idaho is taking in 46% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy sharp action backing the Vandals to survive and advance.
Idaho has the better defensive efficiency (153rd vs 254th), commit fewer turnovers on offense (87th vs 259th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (148th vs 325th) and allow fewer offensive rebounds to their opponents (6th vs 217th).
Idaho enjoys de-facto home court advantage as this tournament is being played at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise.
The Vandals also enjoy a “rest vs tired” edge as Idaho last played on March 8th while Eastern Washington is playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
