Today we have a loaded slate of College Hoops on tap with nearly 60 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Murray State (-3.5, 153.5) at Indiana State

Murray State (6-3) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling in overtime to Western Kentucky 81-76 and pushing as 5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Indiana State (6-4) has won three in a row and just outlasted Missouri State 80-77, winning outright as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Murray State listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sharps have laid the points with Murray State, steaming the Racers up from -2.5 to -3.5. At DraftKings, Murray State is receiving 58% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. At Circa, Murray State is taking in 50% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars. Both books are showing slight public support but also respected smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Ken Pom has Murray State winning by three points (79-76). He also has Murray State ranked much higher (104th vs 195th). Murray State has the superior offensive efficiency (114th vs 125th), defensive efficiency (112th vs 290th) and takes better care of the ball (160th in turnover percentage vs 329th). Murray State is only allowing 65 PPG compared to 77 PPG for Indiana State. Murray State is also a buy-low favorite off a loss against a sell-high home dog off three straight wins. Those looking to protect themselves from a tight win that may not cover the spread could also look to play Murray State on the moneyline at -170.

8 p.m. ET: San Francisco at Bradley (-2, 141)

San Francisco (9-2) has won five straight and just took down Loyola Chicago 76-66, covering as 4-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Bradley (8-2) just saw their seven-game win streak come to an end, falling to Santa Clara 84-74 and failing to cover as 3-point neutral site dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. However, we’ve since seen the line flip to Bradley -2 at home. This signals a sharp “dog to favorite” line move in favor of Bradley, with pros backing the home team. Pros have specifically targeted Bradley to win straight up (-130). At DraftKings, Bradley is receiving 48% of moneyline bets but a hefty 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Bradley is taking in 33% of moneyline bets but a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a massive sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in favor of Bradley to win the game. Ken Pom has Bradley winning by one point (73-72). Bradley has the better offensive efficiency (41st vs 79th), effective field goal percentage (60% vs 57%), three point shooting (45% vs 37%) and free throw shooting (74% vs 70%). Bradley has buy-low value as a short home favorite off a loss against a sell-high dog on a prolonged win streak. Bradley is 4-0 at home. Meanwhile, this is San Francisco’s first true road game of the season.

10 p.m. ET: Montana State at UC Riverside (-2.5, 143.5)

Montana State (5-6) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, getting crushed by USC 89-63 and failing to cover as 9-point road dogs. On the flip side, UC Riverside (7-4) has won three straight and just brushed aside St. Francis Illinois 78-55. This line opened with UC Riverside listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on UC Riverside laying short chalk at home, steaming the Highlanders up from -1.5 to -2.5. This movement is especially notable because only 33% of spread bets are taking UC Riverside at Circa, yet the line moved in their favor. This signals some sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on UC Riverside, with pros backing the unpopular home team. Sharps seem to especially prefer UC Riverside to win straight up (-145), as they are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings. This is also a very low bet, late night game which means it fits the model of an “obscure” line move, which is typically driven by wiseguys who have taken a specific interest in the matchup. Ken Pom has UC Riverside winning by one point (73-72). UC Riverside has the better offensive rebound percentage (29% vs 23%) and defensive efficiency (170th vs 175th). UC Riverside is a perfect 4-0 at home. Montana State is just 1-5 on the road. This is the third straight home game for UC Riverside while Montana State is playing their second straight road game.

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