Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 70 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:15 p.m. ET: Louisville (-3.5, 165.5) at Arkansas
Louisville (7-0, ranked 6th) just demolished NJIT 104-47, covering as 45-point home favorites. On the other hand, Arkansas (5-2, ranked 25th) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to Duke 80-71 but managing to cover as 11-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Louisville listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and they’re happy to lay the points with the undefeated Cardinals, who have the better record and ranking.
However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Louisville remain stagnant at -3.5. In fact, we’ve seen the line drop to Louisville -3 and even -2.5 at times. It has never risen up to -4. On gameday, oddsmakers are juicing up the Arkansas side +3.5 (-115).
Reading between the lines, we are seeing a sharp “line freeze” in favor of Arkansas, as the line has either stayed the same or shown liability in their favor even though the public is backing Louisville.
Arkansas is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Razorbacks are only taking in 39% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the night, a nationally televised primetime tilt on ESPN.
At DraftKings, Arkansas is taking in 39% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
Ken Pom has Louisville winning by three points (74-71), which provides a slight edge on the Razorbacks plus the hook (+3.5).
Arkansas is 5-0 at home. Louisville, on the other hand, is playing their first true road game.
9 p.m. ET: St. Thomas at Montana State (-3.5, 146.5)
St. Thomas (6-3) has won two straight and just crushed Lawrence 87-52. On the other hand, Montana State (3-5) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Utah State 84-81 in overtime.
This line opened with Montana State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening lines speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is a below .500 team favored over a far better above .500 team?
Sharps have embraced the fishy line and gotten down on Montana State, driving the Bobcats up from -2.5 to -3.5.
At DraftKings, Montana State is receiving 64% of spread bets and a whopping 90% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Ken Pom has Montana State winning by four points (74-70).
Those looking to gain some cushion could also entertain Montana State on the moneyline at -155.
At DraftKings, the Bobcats are taking in 58% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of respected sharp action backing a straight up victory for the home team.
Montana State has the better offensive efficiency (178th vs 186th), defensive efficiency (163rd vs 183rd) and offensive rebound percentage (25% vs 18%).
11 p.m. ET: UCLA (-1.5, 142.5) at Washington
UCLA (5-2) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to California 80-72 and losing outright as 8.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Washington (5-2) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to Colorado 81-68 and losing outright as 4.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened at a pick’em.
Sharps have jumped on UCLA at a coin-flip price, driving the Bruins up from a pick’em to a 1.5-point road favorite. Some shops even briefly touched as high as UCLA -2.5. From open to current, all movement and liability has come down in favor of UCLA.
At DraftKings, UCLA is taking in roughly 75% of spread bets and dollars, indicating one-way support from both sharps and the betting public.
Kem Pom has UCLA winning by one point (71-70).
As a result, bettors looking to protect themselves in what might prove to be a close game could elect to play the Bruins on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, UCLA is receiving 89% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in favor of a straight up Bruins victory.
UCLA enjoys a 3-day rest advantage, having last played on November 25th while Washington last played on November 28th.
UCLA has the better offensive efficiency (60th vs 72nd), defensive efficiency (17th vs 52nd) and effective field goal percentage (98th vs 226th).
