Today we have a loaded midweek College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 50-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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6:30 p.m. ET: Nebraska (-1.5, 149.5) at Penn State

Nebraska (17-9) has won five of their last six and just outlasted Northwestern 68-64, covering as 1.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Penn State (13-13) has dropped seven straight and just came up short against against Washington 75-73, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Nebraska listed as a 1-point road favorite. Sharps have pounced on Nebraska laying short chalk, driving the Cornhuskers up from -1 to -1.5. Some shops have even touched -2 at times. At DraftKings, Nebraska is receiving 63% of spread bets and 64% of spread dollars, signaling one-way Pro and Joe support in their favor.

Ken Pom has Nebraska winning by one point (76-75). With this in mind, wiseguys have quietly preferred to play the Cornhuskers on the moneyline (-120). At Circa, Nebraska is taking in 67% of moneyline bets but a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy smart money on Nebraska to come away with a straight up road victory.

Nebraska has the better offensive efficiency (57th vs 71st), defensive efficiency (36th vs 98th), free-throw shooting (76% vs 75%) and takes better care of the ball (132nd in turnovers compared to 168th for Penn State).

Penn State is just 3-12 in conference play this season.

9 p.m. ET: Alabama at Missouri (-1.5, 171.5)

Alabama (21-4, ranked 4th) just saw their seven-game win streak come to an end, falling to Auburn 94-85 and losing outright as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Missouri (19-6, ranked 15th) has won two straight and just held of Georgia 87-74, covering as 2.5-point road favorites.

This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops even opening Alabama as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this game is a toss up and they’re rushing to the window to back Alabama, who has the far better record and ranking. However, despite Alabama receiving 85% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen this line move to Missouri -1.5 at home. If the public is pounding the Crimson Tide, why would the oddsmakers move the line in the direction of the Tigers? Because pros have sided with the unpopular home team, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of Missouri.

Missouri is only receiving 15% of spread bets at DraftKings, making the Tigers the top “bet against the public” play of the night. At Circa, Missouri is taking in 43% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split.

Ken Pom has Missouri winning by one point (86-85). As a result, savvy wiseguys have leaned heavily on the Tigers moneyline (-120) instead of laying the hook. At Circa, Missouri is receiving 67% of moneyline bets but over 90% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros banking on the Tigers to earn a win on their home court.

Missouri has the better three-point shooting (37% vs 34%) and takes better care of the ball (46th in turnovers compared to 182nd for Alabama). Missouri ranks 28th in forcing turnovers compared to Alabama ranking 354th. The Tigers are only giving up 69 PPG compared to the Crimson Tide allowing 79 PPG.

Missouri is 16-1 at home this season.

When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 166-59 (74%) straight up with an 8% ROI since 2021.

10 p.m. ET: New Mexico at Boise State (-4.5, 152.5)

New Mexico (22-4) has won eight straight and just beat Utah State 82-79 but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Boise State (17-8) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to San Diego State 64-47 and failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Boise State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen Boise State move up from -2.5 to -4.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the action is even and there’s no need for the bookmakers to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that respected sharp action has sided with Boise State at home.

At DraftKings, Boise State is only receiving 47% of spread bets but a hefty 89% of spread dollars. At Circa, Boise State is taking in 50% of spread bets but a whopping 98% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Broncos.

Ken Pom has Boise State winning by two points (77-75). For those looking to follow the sharp move but also protect themselves in the event of a close game, it might be worthwhile to pay up and play the Broncos on the moneyline at -190. At Circa, the Broncos are receiving 25% of moneyline bets but 52% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy pro money playing Boise State to win straight up.

Boise State has the better offensive efficiency (49th vs 72nd), effective field goal percentage (53% vs 52%) and free-throw shooting (77% vs 68%).

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