Today we have a loaded midweek slate of College Hoops on tap with nearly 65 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech (-1.5, 135.5)
New Mexico State (10-11) has lost four in a row and just got rolled by Kennesaw State 76-53, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Louisiana Tech (12-9) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Sam Houston 83-67 and failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em.
Sharps have jumped on Louisiana Tech at a virtual coin-flip price, driving the Bulldogs up to a 1.5-point home favorite, with a few other shops inching up to -2.
At DraftKings, Louisiana Tech is receiving 59% of spread bets and a hefty 78% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor.
Ken Pom has Louisiana Tech winning by one point (68-67).
With this in mind, bettors looking to protect themselves in the event of a close game may prefer a Bulldogs moneyline play at -125.
When two teams in Conference USA face off, the home favorite is 16-6 (73%) straight up with a 3% ROI this season.
Louisiana Tech has the better defensive efficiency (140th vs 228th), offensive rebound percentage (62nd vs 97th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (67th vs 99th).
The Bulldogs are giving up 62 PPG compared to the Aggies allowing 70 PPG.
Louisiana Tech is 11-1 at home this season, the 2nd best home record in Conference USA. New Mexico State is 1-5 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Arizona State at Utah (-1.5, 160.5)
Arizona State (11-11) has dropped 9 of their last 11 and just fell to Arizona 87-74 but managed to cover as 14.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Utah (9-12) has lost 8 of their last 9 and just fell to Oklahoma State 81-69, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Utah listed as a 1-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 62% of spread bets at DraftKings are bcking Arizona State, who has the better won-loss record.
However, despite Arizona State receiving a majority of tickets we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Utah -1 to -1.5.
This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Utah, as the line has moved toward the Utes despite the public backing the Sun Devils.
At DraftKings, Utah is receiving 38% of spread bets but 50% of spread dollars. At Circa, Utah is taking in 67% of spread bets but 88% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Utah in a heavily bet, late night game on CBSSN.
Ken Pom has Utah winning by one point (82-81).
As a result, bettors looking to gain some added cushion may prefer a moneyline play on the Utes (-125).
When two teams from the Big 12 face off in conference play, the home favorite is 35-7 (83%) straight up with a 7% ROI this season.
Utah has the better effective field goal percentage (93rd vs 134th), three-point shooting (44th vs 123rd) and commits fewer turnovers on offense (80th vs 147th).
Utah is 8-4 at home. Arizona State is 1-5 on the road.
11 p.m. ET: Utah State at New Mexico (-1.5, 156.5)
Utah State (18-3) has won three in a row and just brushed aside San Diego State 71-66 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Similarly, New Mexico (18-4) has won four straight and just took down San Jose State 90-80 but failed to cover as 15.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with New Mexico listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on the Lobos laying short chalk at home, as New Mexico is being juiced up -1.5 (-115 or -120) while other books have inched up to -2 or even -2.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the home chalk.
At DraftKings, New Mexico is receiving 80% of spread bets and 95% of spread dollars. At Circa, New Mexico is taking in 75% of spread bets and 97% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the Lobos at home.
Ken Pom has New Mexico winning by three points (78-75).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing the Lobos on the moneyline (-135).
At DraftKings, New Mexico is taking in 74% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline wagers, further evidence of heavy betting in favor of a straight up Lobos victory.
When two teams from the Mountain West face off in conference play, the home favorite is 28-2 (93%) straight up with a 16% ROI this season.
New Mexico has the better free-throw shooting (88th vs 249th), defensive efficiency (26th vs 39th) and does a better job of not turning it over on offense (73rd vs 130th).
New Mexico is 12-0 at home this season, the best home record in the Mountain West.
