Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with nearly 60 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Texas at Kentucky (-6.5, 151.5)
Texas (11-7) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Texas A&M 74-70 and losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Kentucky (12-6) has won three straight and just took down Tennessee 80-78, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 6.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit high and 60% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with the Longhorns.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing Texas we’ve seen Kentucky remain stagnant at -6.5. In fact, most shops are juicing up Kentucky -6.5 (-115) while a few others have even touched as high as -7 or -7.5. We’ve never seen the line drop down to -6.
Reading between the lines, all movement and liability seems to be on the side of the “line freeze” Wildcats, as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their favor despite the public backing the Longhorns.
Kentucky offers rare “fade the trendy dog” contrarian value as an unpopular favorite receiving less than half the tickets in one of the most heavily bet games of the night.
At Circa, Kentucky is only receiving 27% of spread bets but a whopping 76% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the wiseguys in the desert laying the chalk.
Kentucky has the better effective field goal percentage (54th vs 82nd), defensive efficiency (33rd vs 101st) and limits their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (56th vs 96th).
7 p.m. ET: Notre Dame at North Carolina (-12.5, 148.5)
Notre Dame (10-8) has dropped four in a row and just fell to Virginia Tech 89-76, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. Similarly, North Carolina (14-4, ranked 22nd) has lost three of their last four and just came up short against California 84-78, losing outright as 6.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with North Carolina listed as an 11.5-point home favorite.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the big number and have laid the chalk the Tar Heels, steaming North Carolina up from -11.5 to -12.5. Several shops are even inching up to -13 or even -13.5, signaling additional one-way movement and liability toward the Tar Heels.
At DraftKings, North Carolina is taking in 69% of spread bets and a hefty 83% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Tar Heels are receiving 64% of spread bets and a whopping 92% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the home team covering the big chalk.
North Carolina has the better offensive efficiency (33rd vs 103rd) and defensive efficiency (51st vs 60th).
The Tar Heels also enjoy the superior effective field goal percentage (49th vs 110th), offensive rebound percentage (72nd vs 105th) and take better care of the ball, ranking 45th in turnover percentage compared to 250th for the Irish.
North Carolina is a perfect 11-0 at home. Notre Dame is 2-3 on the road.
11 p.m. ET: San Diego State at Grand Canyon (-1.5, 143.5)
San Diego State (13-4) has won seven straight and just held off New Mexico 83-79 but failed to cover as 5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon (11-6) has won three of their last four and just took down Utah State 84-74, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 62% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing the Aztecs on the road.
However, despite San Diego State receiving a majority of tickets we’ve actually seen this line flip in favor of Grand Canyon, pushing the Lopes from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite.
In other words, we are seeing a sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line move in favor of Grand Canyon, as the line has flipped in their direction despite the public backing San Diego State.
Grand Canyon is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Lopes are receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a “fade the trendy dog” heavily bet late game on FS1.
At Circa, Grand Canyon is taking in only 33% of spread bets but hefty 69% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor from the sharps out in the desert.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing the Lopes on the moneyline at -115.
Grand Canyon has the better offensive rebound percentage (113th vs 187th), free-throw shooting (49th vs 121st) and offensive rebound percentage allowed (29th vs 182nd).
