Today have a loaded slate of midweek College Basketball on tap with 54 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:30 p.m. ET: Baylor at Cincinnati (-3.5, 147.5)
Baylor (11-8) has dropped three in a row and just came up short against TCU 97-90, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Cincinnati (10-10) has lost two straight and just fell to Arizona State 82-68, losing outright as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched teams and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this roughly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Cincinnati fall from -4.5 to -3.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, you wouldn’t expect a line to move very much if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread one way or the other.
So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have sided with Baylor plus the points.
At Circa, Baylor is taking in 43% of spread bets but a whopping 95% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split from the wiseguys in the desert in favor of the road dog plus the points.
Ken Pom has Cincinnati winning by two points (75-73), which offers actionable value on the Bears at the current price (+3.5). He also has Baylor ranked higher (52nd vs 61st).
Baylor has the better offensive efficiency (24th vs 203rd), effective field goal percentage (58th vs 272nd), offensive rebound percentage (9th vs 199th), three-point shooting (59th vs 330th) and free-throw shooting (194th vs 349th).
7:30 p.m. ET: Xavier at Seton Hall (-6.5, 144.5)
Xavier (11-9) has lost two straight and just fell to St. John’s 88-83 but managed to cover as 8.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Seton Hall (14-6) has dropped four in a row and just fell to DePaul 67-60, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Seton Hall listed as a 7.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought this opener was a bit high and have jumped on Xavier plus the points, dropping the Musketeers down from +7.5 to +6.5. Several shops are juicing up Xavier +6.5 (-115), signaling further liability and a possible move down to +6.
At DraftKings, Xavier is receiving 66% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. At Circa, Xavier is taking in 67% of spread bets and a hefty 97% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog plus the points.
When two teams in the Big East face off in conference play, the dog is 35-17 ATS (67%) with a 28% ROI this season.
The Musketeers have the better offensive efficiency (90th vs 161st), effective field goal percentage (176th vs 321st), three-point shooting (44th vs 313th) and take better care of the ball, ranking 11th in turnover percentage compared to 132nd for Seton Hall.
8:30 p.m. ET: DePaul at Georgetown (-3.5, 139.5)
DePaul (12-8) has won four of their last six and just took down Seton Hall 67-60, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Georgetown (10-10) just snapped a six-game losing skid with an 81-78 win over Providence, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Georgetown listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with the home chalk Hoyas.
However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Georgetown fall from -4.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor DePaul, as the line has moved toward the Blue Demons despite the public backing the Hoyas.
DePaul offers “bet against the public” value as the Blue Demons are receiving only 39% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet primetime game on FS1.
Meanwhile, Circa is showing 60% of spread bets and a whopping 93% of spread dollars in favor of DePaul, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split out in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Georgetown winning by three points (72-69), which provides actionable value on DePaul at the current price (+3.5).
When two teams in the Big East face off in conference play, the dog is 35-17 ATS (67%) with a 28% ROI this season.
DePaul has the better defensive efficiency (54th vs 109th), three-point shooting (182nd vs 275th), force more turnovers (92nd vs 218th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (57th vs 110th).
