Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball action on tap with 54 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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5 p.m. ET: Furman (-2.5, 146.5) at Chattanooga
Furman (10-5) just saw their six-game win streak come to an end, falling to Western Carolina 80-77 in overtime and losing outright as 8.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Chattanooga (6-9) has dropped four of their last five and just came up short against VMI 79-71, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Furman listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have pounced on Furman at a cheap chalk price, steaming the Paladins up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, Furman is receiving 72% of spread bets and 83% of spread dollars. At Circa, Furman is taking in 60% of spread bets and 87% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the short road chalk.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves and mitigate some risk by playing Furman on the moneyline at -140.
At DraftKings, the Paladins are taking in 70% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pro action siding with Furman to earn a straight up victory.
Furman has the better offensive efficiency (163rd vs 211st), defensive efficiency (184th vs 307th) and effective field goal percentage (70th vs 172nd).
7 p.m. ET: Stanford at Virginia Tech (-4.5, 148.5)
Stanford (12-3) just upset Louisville 80-76, winning outright as 8.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech (12-3) just saw their six-game win streak come to an end, losing to Wake Forest 81-78 but managing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Virginia Tech listed as a 5.5-point home favorite.
The public is all over the home chalk with 71% of spread bets laying the points with the Hokies.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Virginia Tech fall from -5.5 to -4.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Hokies to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Stanford plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog.
At DraftKings, Stanford is taking in only 29% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Cardinal.
Stanford has the better offensive rebound percentage (75th vs 145th) and free-throw shooting (172nd vs 241st).
The Cardinal also do a better job is limiting offensive rebounds to the opponents (42nd vs 229th) and turning their opponents over on defense (27th vs 105th).
8 p.m. ET: Iowa State (-4.5, 155.5) at Baylor
Iowa State (14-0, ranked 3rd) just brushed aside West Virginia 80-59, easily covering as 16.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Baylor (10-3) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to TCU 69-63 and failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the undefeated Cyclones.
However, despite receiving 80% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Iowa State fall from -6 to -4.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Baylor plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of the Bears despite the public pounding the Cylones.
Baylor is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Bears are only receiving 20% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet primetime games.
At DraftKings, Baylor is receiving 20% of spread bets and 35% of spread dollars. At Circa, Baylor is taking in 50% of spread bets and a whopping 95% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of the home dog plus the points, especially from the wiseguys out in the desert.
Baylor has buy-low value as an unranked dog off a loss against a sell-high ranked and undefeated opponent.
Home conference dogs with at least a half point of line movement in their favor are 24-19 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Baylor has the superior offensive rebound percentage (4th vs 18th) and free-throw shooting (60th vs 287th).
