Feast Week continues on the College Basketball hardwood today with roughly 60 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
7 p.m. ET: Pepperdine vs Fresno State (-2, 148.5)
This Acrisure Series tournament matchup will be played in Palm Springs, California.
Pepperdine (3-3) just came up short against Stephen F. Austin 63-60, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Fresno State (5-2) has won three in a row and just took down New Orleans 85-76, covering as 6.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Fresno State listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have quietly sided with Fresno State, as the Bulldogs have moved up from -1.5 to -2, with some shops even inching toward -2.5.
At DraftKings, Fresno State is receiving 63% of spread bets and a hefty 84% of spread dollars, a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing Fresno State on the moneyline at -130.
At DraftKings, Fresno State is taking in 82% of moneyline bets and a hefty 87% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split from both Pros and Joes in favor of a straight up Bulldogs victory.
Ken Pom has Fresno State winning by three points (77-74). He also has the Bulldogs ranked higher (163rd vs 208th).
Fresno State possesses the superior offensive efficiency (182nd vs 234th) and defensive efficiency (164th vs 183rd).
The Bulldogs also have the better effective field goal percentage (86th vs 318th) and three-point shooting (34% vs 28%).
7:30 p.m. ET: Indiana State at Louisiana Tech (-2.5, 142.5)
Indiana State (4-2) has won two straight and just brushed aside Ball State 70-52, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech (2-2) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Indiana State 60-51 and failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Louisiana Tech listed as a 2-point home favorite.
Sharps have jumped on Louisiana Tech to bounce back on their home court, pushing the Bulldogs up from -2 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, Louisiana Tech is receiving 57% of spread bets and a whopping 82% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action in favor of the home chalk.
Ken Pom has Louisiana Tech winning by two points (69-67).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to gain some added cushion by playing the Bulldogs to win straight up on the moneyline at -145.
Louisiana Tech is in a “revenge” spot, having just lost to Indiana State their last time out. The Bulldogs also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on November 19th compared to Indiana State last playing on November 22nd.
The Bulldogs have a notable edge defensively, allowing 55.8 PPG compared to Indiana State giving up 70.5 PPG. Louisiana Tech also averages 46.3 rebounds per game compared to 38 rebounds per game for Indiana State.
Louisiana Tech is 2-0 at home. Indiana State is 1-2 on the road.
9:30 p.m. ET: Gonzaga (-2, 163.5) vs Michigan
This is the Players Era Festival Championship game and it will be played at the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas.
Gonzaga (7-0, ranked 12th) just destroyed Maryland 100-61, easily covering as 14.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Michigan (6-0, ranked 7th) just demolished Auburn 102-71, cruising as 5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em.
The public is happy to back Michigan, who has the better ranking.
However, despite 65% of spread bets taking the Wolverines we’ve actually seen this line move in favor of Gonzaga, pushing the Bulldogs up from a pick’em to a 2-point neutral site favorite, with some shops even approaching -2.5. This signals reverse line movement in favor of the Zags, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public backing the Wolverines.
Gonzaga has notable “fade the trendy dog” contrarian value as they are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a nationally televised primetime game on TNT, which also happens to be the most heavily bet game of the night with the most public participation.
At DraftKings, Gonzaga is receiving 35% of spread bets but 63% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by one point (80-79). He also has Gonzaga ranked higher (1st vs 4th).
As a result, those looking to follow the sharp move but also protect themselves in the event of a close game may prefer a Gonzaga moneyline play at -135.
At DraftKings, Gonzaga is taking in 51% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of smart money in their favor to win straight up.
Sharps have also hammered the over, raising the total from 160.5 to 163.5.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 79% of bets and 92% of dollars, a heavy dose of Pro and Joe action siding toward a higher scoring game.
