Tuley: Wednesday Best Bets in NBA, college basketball; Tuesday recaps

126

Wednesday Best Bet, Tuesday Recaps

Tuesday was a day of running some errands (sleep study results, oil change for my car) and mostly handicapping and watching college basketball on the eve of March.
I also had to don my reporting hat and write about Ohio’s impressive first month of legalized sports betting as it became the nation’s second-largest market right out of the gate with $1.1 billion in handle in January. My report is at VSiN.com.
As for my own betting, we won our Best Bet on Lipscomb +2 at Stetson in the Atlantic Sun Tournament as the Bisons pulled away in the second half to win 83-70. I also should have played the Bucknell Bison +5.5 in a 64-59 loss at American in the first round of the Patriot League Tournament (VSiN colleague Pauly Howard pointed out on yesterday’s “Follow the Money” show that Bucknell beat American twice during the regular season but was getting points).
This all reminds me of one of my favorite “Dad Jokes”: My friend Ed Sehon had a boy named Scott. What did he say to him when he dropped him off at Bucknell?
“Bison.”
Anyway, Tuesday wasn’t all a bucket of laughs as we lost our secondary CBB pick on Arkansas +6.5 at Tennessee. The Razorbacks were dominated 75-57, but we had our doubts about this play as they turned out to be very public underdogs as we heard a lot of people touting Arkansas throughout the day. We prefer when our plays are contrarian.

 

We also lost our lone NHL play on the Kings-Jets 1P Under 1.5 +115. It looked good as the game was scoreless for nearly 16 minutes, but then the Jets scored twice within 103 seconds. At least we passed on the No. 1 vs. No. 2 1P Under teams with the Wild playing the Islanders as the books were charging around -125. That was also scoreless for 14 minutes before both teams scored.
Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s (full-game) action in the major team sports and then look for more Best Bets for Wednesday. I don’t have any NHL plays as there aren’t any 1P Over/Unders that I like and no swagger/anti-swagger plays.

Tuesday Recaps

CBB: Iowa routed No. 15 Indiana 90-68 as 5-point road dog & +195 on money line. Boise State beat No. 18 San Diego State 66-60, but it wasn’t an upset as Boise closed as 2.5-point home fave. No. 3 Kansas beat Texas Tech 67-63 but didn’t cover as 8-point home fave.

NBA: Spurs snapped 16-game losing streak with 102-94 win at Jazz. The ViewFromVegas is they were 9.5-point road underdogs and +360 on the money line. Faves still led 6-4 SU and ATS on the night with the other upsets by the Pacers (+8.5 at Mavericks), Wizards (+8 at Hawks) and Timberwolves (+6.5 at Clippers). Road teams led 7-3 SU and ATS. Unders led 6-4.

More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 600-316 SU with 15 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs still lead 453-441-22 (50.7%). Home teams still lead 554-377 SU and 478-433-20 ATS (52.5%). In totals wagering, Overs’ slim lead dipped to 461-456-14 (50.3%).

NHL: Favorites went 6-4 Tuesday with the upsets by the Blue Jackets (+175 in 5-3 win at Sabres), Panthers (+145 in 4-1 win at Lightning), Canadiens (+140 in 3-1 win at Sharks) and Kings (+120 in 6-5 shootout win at Jets after trailing 5-3 entering the 3rd period). Road teams went 7-3. Over/Unders split 5-5.

NBA Best Bet

Hornets +10.5 vs. Suns: I know that Kevin Durant is making his debut for Phoenix tonight, but for me that means that the whole world is going to be on the Suns. Charlotte, which lost LaMelo Ball for the rest of the season with a fractured ankle, is on a 5-game winning streak, so I still think this is too many points for the Suns to be laying on the road, even with Durant. For those expecting the Hornets to tank and improve their lottery chances, let the Spurs’ upset of the Jazz be a warning sign (plus the Hornets are still 4.5 games ahead of the Spurs for the third-worst record in the Association). Again, we don’t need an upset here but just for the Hornets to stay within single digits.

College basketball Best Bet

Auburn +10 at Alabama: We get another double-digit dog in CBB with an unranked team vs. a Top 25 team. There’s obviously a lot of turmoil surrounding the Alabama program and we saw the Crimson Tide fail to cover in their wins over South Carolina and Arkansas last week. Auburn should also put forth a motivated effort as the Tigers are only on the “Last Four Byes” list for the NCAA Tournament by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

XFL Week 3 Best Bet

San Antonio Brahmas +4 at Houston Roughnecks: I gave this out Sunday night/Monday morning and it’s up to +4.5 at BetMGM and Resorts World here in Vegas as well as DraftKIngs in other states, so followers might want to wait and shop around. Houston was middle-of-the-pack in preseason XFL futures but they were made the +350 favorite at Circa Sports after routing Orlando 33-12 in the season-opener and beating Arlington 23-14 on Sunday night. Meanwhile, San Antonio lost only 18-15 to preseason favorite St. Louis in the opener and then nearly beat Orlando (30-12) by as much as Houston did. Road teams are 5-3 ATS so far in the XFL, so I think Houston is being given too much for home-field advantage in a game that I feel should be closer to pick-’em, or at least under a field goal.