Tuley’s Takes on NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Games:
We’re all ready in the Tuley’s Takes home office for the Elite 8 (aka regional title games) on Saturday and Sunday.
We’ve been happy to see underdogs barking more in the last two rounds after chalk was so dominant in the first round. In Thursday’s Sweet 16 games, favorites swept 4-0 straight-up with Texas Tech needing to come back from a 16-point deficit to beat No. 10 Arkansas 85-83 in overtime, but they only split 2-2 ATS as the Red Raiders didn’t cover as 5-point faves and Duke also failed to cover as 9.5-point chalk in a 100-93 win vs. Arizona.
Favorites still lead 28-24 ATS (53.8%) after going 19-13 ATS (59.4%) last Thursday and Friday (note: that means dogs are actually 11-9 ATS, 55%, since the first round).
Also of note, Overs swept 4-0 on Thursday (also thanks to Texas Tech-Arkansas going to OT after the game was tied 72-72 after regulation with a betting total of 148.5). Unders were also dominating early but are now down to a 27-24-1 (52.9%) lead entering Friday night’s games.
Without further ado, let’s get to my “takes” on Saturday’s regional finals and then I’ll add Sunday’s two games to the bottom of this file on Saturday.
Texas Tech +6.5 vs. Florida
Saturday, 6:10 p.m. ET
Regular readers (or VSiN subscribers who checkout the March Madness Betting Guide) know that I picked and bet Texas Tech +515 to win the West Regional as the No. 3. Basically, I already handicapped this potential matchup when the brackets were set as I expected the Red Raiders would have to go through the SEC tournament champion Gators to cash my bet. I felt Texas Tech could score every which way, whether from 3 or pick-and-rolls inside, and match up well with Florida.
I’m sure there are some readers who would suggest that I hedge my bet with a play on the Gators on the money line, but I’m so confident in my original handicapping that I’m betting Tech again plus the points here and will be disappointed if I cash my bet without them winning outright. Granted, I’m kinda playing with house money as I thought we were doomed when the Red Raiders trailed Arkansas by 16, but every champion (or regional champ) usually has a scare along the way. Texas Tech used its balanced offense to chip away at the lead and escape with the OT victory. Both teams have Top 5 offenses, but I also like that Texas Tech is only No. 268 in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) at kenpom.com and can shorten this game, making the points more valuable as we just need them to keep this at a two-possession game to cash the bet.
Alabama +7 vs. Duke
Saturday, 8:50 p.m. ET
Full disclosure here as I lost my Best Bet of the Sweet 16 round with the Alabama-BYU Under 176. I thought I was being clever being contrarian since everyone else seems to be on the Over, but I was pretty much doomed from the start and Alabama ended up putting up an NCAA-tournament record 51 shots from beyond the 3-point arc, making a record breaking 25 of those (nearly 50%!!!) and scoring a record 113 points in its 113-88 rout of BYU. I was impressed.
Now, after doing my stat work, my first thought was that the Over/Under of 173.5 was set too high, but I’m not touching that again. Instead, I’m taking the Crimson Tide plus the points against Duke even though I don’t expect the Tide to come anywhere near those records or for Mark Sears to come close to his 34 points from Thursday night. Still, the team attack (ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency at kenpom.com) is certainly capable of keeping up with No. 1 Duke.
Alabama also has the edge in strength of schedule, battling night in and night out in the ultra-deep SEC, while Duke beat up on a down ACC this season. I have this spread closer to a field goal (I’m jokingly meaning 3 points like in football, though I guess with this Bama team we should just refer to a basketball field goal as 3 points as well). Duke covered its first two games of the tournament, but wasn’t able to put away Arizona until late on Thursday night and failed to cover that big number. This should be a shootout like everyone is expecting. I don’t see a blowout, so taking the points with Bama is the play.
Tennessee vs. Houston (-3, Over/Under 123.5)
Sunday, 2:20 p.m. ET
In Sunday’s last two regional finals, I don’t have a play in the Michigan State-Auburn game after splitting my Big Ten plays in the Sweet 16 on Friday—losing with Michigan +8.5 in the Wolverines’ 78-65 loss to Auburn but winning with Purdue +8.5 in the Boilermakers’ narrow 62-60 loss to Houston. I feel the Michigan State +5 line is too short for me to take against No. 1 overall seed Auburn.
Regular readers of these “takes” columns or the VSiN March Madness Betting Guide may recall that I bet on both Houston (+575) and Tennessee (+2000) to win the NCAA tournament, as I fully expected them to meet in the Midwest Regional final. I also believed the winner would have a better-than-their-odds chance to go all the way and cut down the nets in San Antonio.
As for this game, I initially expected to take Tennessee plus the points, but—just like the Michigan State line—it came up too short for my liking. Normally, I would just pass on the game altogether, but the more I looked at the total, the more I liked the Over.
Houston ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com, and Tennessee ranks No. 3. Plus, both teams play at a slow pace—Tennessee is No. 349 in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes), and Houston is No. 360. So I understand why oddsmakers set the total low. However, 123.5 is just too low. That projects both teams scoring in the very low 60s (63-60 if you go by the spread and total), but I have this game with both teams in the mid-60s. I would set the Over/Under closer to 132.
