Tuley’s Takes on NCAA Tournament Final Four Games:
We’re finally down to the Final Four of the NCAA tournament, and it can’t come quick enough for us here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, as we’ve suffered through the chalkiest NCAA tournament any of us can remember.
I’m sure you all know by now that this is the first time since 2008 that all four No. 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four. Overall in the tourney, favorites are 48-12 straight-up (80%) but just 33-27 against the spread (55%) as there have been 15 instances with underdogs covering in losses. Unders have actually been a better bet overall at 34-25-1 (57.6%) and are only below 60% because Overs went 4-0 in last Thursday’s Sweet 16 games.
As for my personal bets, it’s been a struggle and even when I won with No, 3 seed Texas Tech +7 vs. Florida last Saturday, it felt like a loss as I had two tickets (+515 and +500) on the Red Raiders to win the West Regional (and in 90% of my brackets, which would have separated me from all the brackets using all No. 1s). That was a Bad Beat as Tech led by 10 points only to lose 84-79.
But enough looking back. The good news is that with all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, someone has to be the underdog and give “dog or pass” bettors like yours truly hope. There’s been a lot of speculation about why chalk has dominated so much in this year’s tournament, and I’m kinda buying into how NIL deals have skewed the CBB landscape with the rich getting richer and gutting mid-major programs. At least we know this weekend that we have truly elite dogs to consider.
Auburn vs. Florida (-2.5, Over/Under 160)
Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET
The SEC has two of the No. 1 seeds with Auburn (the regular-season champ) and Florida (the conference tourney champ) having to face each other. They didn’t meet in the SEC title game as Auburn lost to Tennessee in the semis and limped to the finish line (losing three of four) to get ready for the Big Dance. Both teams are peaking at the right time and obviously 4-0 in the tournament with Auburn 3-1 ATS, though Florida is only 1-3 ATS. It’s tempting to take Auburn as the underdog, but the line is too short for me.
I’m also not thrilled with the fact that Auburn was favored by 11 points at home in the only regular-season meeting and Florida pulled the 90-81 outright upset (beating the spread by 20 points). I usually jump on a dog with this much of a line adjustment, but just can’t pull the trigger here. I prefer taking the Under here. Hopefully you grabbed Under 161.5, but I have this total in the lower 150s, so I think there’s still value despite the 171 points scored in the first meeting. Florida does play faster (No. 59 in Adjusted Tempo with 69.8 possessions per 40 minutes, according to kenpom.com) and is 4-0 with Overs in the tourney, but Auburn is No. 136 in Adjusted Tempo and have been slowing things down at 3-1 with the Under in the tourney. I’ll take the Under (and pray for no overtime).
Houston +5 vs. Duke
Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET
While I lost my Texas Tech futures, I still have Houston at +575 to cut down the final nets on Monday night (and win two bracket pools). When I was filling out my brackets, I took a long look at this matchup and decided the better chance to win was with Houston as the overlooked No, 1 seed, so I definitely like getting points here in case the Cougars don’t pull the outright upset (just like we did with Texas Tech, even though that was a disappointing consolation prize).
A lot of people were obviously high on Duke and felt the Blue Devils should have been the overall No. 1 seed with Cooper Flagg and a loaded roster. However, this is a case we often see with a “team of individuals” and a “team playing as a team” and I’ll go with the Cougars, who are the No. 1 defensive team according to kenpom.com and we all know the old adage about “defense wins championship” – or at least cover the spread! These teams also play at a slow pace, with Houston at No. 360 in Adjusted Tempo at kenpom.com and Duke at No. 268. That’s reflected in the low Over/Under of 136, which also helps the dog cover with points at such a premium.
