Tuley’s Takes on NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Games:
Even though the NCAA tournament has been pretty chalky and there’s no real Cinderellas in the Big Dance, we’re still excited about the Sweet 16 in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
When I wrote the last two weeks how I’ve usually had more success with my “dog or pass” plays in the conference tournament undercards even more than the so-called main event, I was certainly proud when our Best Bets did well in the conference tourneys (especially the 10-1 run with Unders in the Missouri Valley), but I wasn’t hoping for the second part to be a self-fulfilling prophecy as chalk dominated the first round last Thursday and Friday at 25-7 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%).
Favorites went 11-5 SU in the second round on Saturday and Sunday, but at least underdogs bounced back a little by leading 9-7 ATS as four dogs covered in losses (Gonzaga +5.5 vs. Houston, UConn +9.5 vs. Florida, Colorado State +8 vs. Maryland and Oregon +4.5 vs. Arizona).
Fortunately, I was on UConn on Sunday, and even though my New Mexico +7 came up short in the Lobos’ 71-63 loss to Michigan State, I went 2-1 on Sunday to close out the weekend thanks to hitting my top play of the second round on the New Mexico-Michigan State total staying comfortably Under 148 points by two touchdowns (for those who like to mix metaphors).
If you had asked me before the tournament if I would rather win my early bets and lose late or lose early and win late, I would clearly have chosen the latter, Regular bettors (read: degenerates?) will know what I mean.
But enough looking back, except to help us with future wagers. Let’s get to Thursday and Friday’s Sweet 16 matchups.
BYU vs. Alabama -5 (Under 176)
Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET
Before we get to my “dog or pass” plays, let’s go with another Under after hitting my Best Bet on Sunday. For those interested, Unders dominated 21-11 (65.6%) in the first round. Overs led 9-6-1 in the second round, but Unders still lead 27-20-1 (57.4%) overall. We’ll see how the players and teams fared with the shooting backgrounds in the areas for the regional semifinals and finals, starting with this game at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Now, I fully understand this is a contrarian play (which regular readers know I love!) as Alabama is the No. 4 offensive team in the country, according to kenpom.com, and BYU isn’t too shabby at No. 9. This opened as low as 171.5 at DraftKings and 172.5 at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. I wasn’t looking to bet it when the odds were posted on Sunday, but I don’t think I woulda passed (luckily, I’m glad I didn’t see it until it was a consensus 176). We’re definitely fading the line move and the majority of bettors as 67% of wagers and 89% of money has been on the Over at Circa Sports, according to our VSiN Betting Splits page as of Tuesday afternoon. While BYU could run with Bama, I’m expecting the Cougars to try to slow down the pace like St. Mary’s did on Sunday. In that game, Alabama only scored but seemed content to win comfortably – and for our purposes that would work, too.
Maryland +7 vs. Florida
Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET
We get our first (hopefully) live dog in the second game of the night. Two of the biggest stories of the opening weekend were the success of the SEC (seven teams in the Sweet 16) and the Big Ten (four in the Sweet 16, plus for our purposes here an even more impressive 12-4 ATS). I successfully faded Florida with UConn +9.5 in the Gators’ narrow 77-75 win on Sunday and, while the SEC tournament champs are certainly talented and the No. 1 scoring team in the nation, While UConn was the two-time defending national champs and I’m not saying the Maryland program is at that level, the Terrapins are certainly battle-tested enough from playing all season in the Big Ten and should give them another big test. Maryland is a better defensive team than UConn, ranked No. 6 at kenpom.com, and the Huskies were able to keep Florida in the 70s. I look for this game to play out much the same way. I almost played the Under here as well (and I still might), but feel the dog is still the better bet. I wouldn’t want to lose a bet because Maryland pushed the pace and got hot offensively.
Michigan +8.5 vs. Auburn
Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET
You might notice a Big Ten trend here – but please don’t accuse me of Midwest bias as I have had a lot of success fading the Big Ten over the years, so I’m not just being a homer (and I went to NIU in the MAC anyway!). Yes, I know Auburn is the No. 1 overall seed, but I’ve felt all along that Michigan was underseeded (probably locked into a No. 5 seed by the committee before the Wolverines won the Big Ten conference tournament on Selection Sunday), and this line is set too high. Besides, let’s not forget that Auburn is trying to become the first team to win the national title after losing three of its last four games before the tournament. I realize the Tigers could have been coasting and not motivated since they knew they were going to be a No. 1 seed regardless, but I’ll still take the team in better form. In addition, Auburn failed to cover its first-round game as a 32-point favorite in an 83-63 win vs. No. 16 seed Alabama State and then trailed Creighton at halftime before pulling away to cover as a 9-point favorite in the round of 32, so the Tigers have still been letting teams stick around.
Purdue +8 vs. Houston
Friday, 10:09 p.m. ET
I fully admit I underestimated the Boilermakers coming into the tourney as I took High Point plus the points against them in the first round and then McNeese State against them in the second round. This is another case of the Big Ten 10 getting too many points to pass up, Now, regular readers will recall I have Houston (and Tennessee) futures to cut down the nets in San Antonio, so maybe this is a bit of a hedge bet, but Purdue is No. 7 in offensive efficiency to Houston’s No. 10 and should be in this game throughout. I also like that Purdue has a potential home(state)-court advantage with just an hour bus ride from West Lafayette, Ind., to Indianapolis (where the Big Ten tourney is also played). Playing in familiar surroundings should also help Purdue match 3-point shooting with Houston. And last, but not least, both teams don’t push the pace that much with Purdue at No. 299 in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) at kenpom.com and Houston even slower at No. 359, so that should lead to a lower-scoring game (set too low for me to bet the Under at 132), which puts points more at a premium and dog bettors love that.
