Tuley’s Takes on Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Second-Round Games:
We hope everyone had a great first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday and Friday as we did in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and running around to the sportsbooks here in Vegas as we love when readers/friends from all over the country come to town for March Madness).
As I wrote in Friday’s “takes” column, I thought Thursday could very well be chalky, and it was as favorites went 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS. Those are the games that set up Saturday’s second-round games (aka round of 32) that we’ll start with here and then add Sunday’s “takes” to the end of the file on Saturday.
McNeese State +6 vs. Purdue
Saturday, 12:10 p.m. ET
When we get to the round of 32, I often feel myself pot-committed to back the teams I had going to the Sweet 16 when filling out my brackets. That’s because I’ve already handicapped these potential matchups before the tournament. In this case, I was hoping McNeese State would be facing High Point, which came up just short in covering against Purdue on Thursday after being in the whole game. If anything, I like this bet even more with McNeese State getting 6 points, as I’m even more confident they can hang with Purdue after the impressive upset of No. 5 Clemson. I also like that both teams are ranked low in Adjusted Tempo at kenpom.com, with Purdue ranked No. 303 with 64.9 possession per 40 minutes and McNeese State not expected to push the pace either at No. 278 with 65.6. The points scored in these teams’ first-round games were 136 and 138, with this total opening 145 and getting bet down to 143.5 as of late Friday morning, so it should be relatively low-scoring again, which again favors the underdog with points at a premium. Purdue dominated High Point on the boards and won’t have that much of an advantage here with second-chance points, giving McNeese State a great chance to be the Cinderella team in the Sweet 16 (or at least cover for our purposes here).
Drake +7.5 vs. Texas Tech
Saturday, 6:10 p.m.
I used Drake in nearly all my brackets, so I was thrilled with the 67-57 upset of Missouri. Now, I do have them losing this round to Texas Tech. In fact, if you read the VSiN Betting Guide (which everyone should have!) or my Thursday “takes,” you probably know that I have Texas Tech as my value bet to win the West Regional at +515 and obviously have them advancing in all my brackets. However, the Red Raiders weren’t as impressive as I hoped in their non-covering 82-72 win vs. UNC-Wilmington (as a “dog or pass” player, you know I didn’t bet Texas Tech, but was still cheering for a stronger showing to give me more confidence in them moving forward). I was more enamored with Drake’s performance. The Red Raiders certainly have the right to improve. Call this a hedge if you want, but I’m taking Drake plus the points. Texas Tech still has the better overall team, but I’m not sure it’s by this many points. Besides, Drake’s Bennett Stirtz certainly gives the Bulldogs a shooter’s chance, especially if Texas Tech again has trouble from 3-point territory in Wichita after taking a tournament record 46 treys on Thursday and only hitting 13 (28.3%).
