UConn vs. South Carolina:
The collision course between Geno Auriemma’s Connecticut Huskies and Dawn Staley’s defending champion South Carolina Gamecocks will come to a head Sunday afternoon in Tampa.
Seemingly destined to play for the title, the matchup is ripe with storylines; Paige Bueckers’ final collegiate game and last chance to secure a title for the legendary program, South Carolina re-loading and potentially going back-to-back, and the rematch factor after UConn made light work of the Gamecocks earlier this year.
Reminder on how to read the projections: If the spread is a positive number, that indicates the team on the left (Home, unless neutral site) is favored by TSI. If the spread is a negative, that indicates the team on the right (Away, unless neutral side) is favored by TSI. TSI total is the projected number of combined points in the game.
UConn (-6.5) vs South Carolina, O/U 132.5 (3 p.m. ET)
UConn is a 6.5-point favorite after demolishing National Defensive Player of the Year, Lauren Betts, and the UCLA Bruins. The Over/Under is set at 132.5. My T Shoe Index favors Connecticut by 6 – in line with the market – but projects a total of 135, indicating some value on the Over. The tricky thing with betting an Over in this game is:
1. It’s these teams’ second game in three days
2. Both teams shot the ball extremely well in the semifinal round, so it’s hard to decide if that’ll be replicated or if some regression is due.
Heading into this game, these teams are actually #1 and #2 in both opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency; they are not here by mistake, that’s for sure. This is a clash of the titans and TSI sees the Huskies cutting down the nets at the Gamecocks’ expense on Sunday. From a betting strategy standpoint, I will trust the numbers and play the Over pregame, but I will be looking for a fast South Carolina start to get a discounted price on Paige and the Huskies.
TSI Score Projection: 71-65 UConn
Bet: Over 132.5 (Play to 134)
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How To Watch UConn vs. South Carolina
How: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
When: Sunday April 6, 3 p.m. ET
Where: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL
