UConn vs. UCLA Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, UConn vs. UCLA is the second-round game on Sunday, March 22 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch UConn vs. UCLA
When: 8:45 pm ET on Sunday, March 22nd
Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Watch: TNT
Odds for UConn vs. UCLA
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: UConn -3.5 (-108), UCLA +3.5 (-112)
Total: Over 139.5 (-110), Under 139.5 (-110)
UConn vs. UCLA Prediction & Preview
UConn didn’t look great in an 82-71 win over Furman, and it took a heroic performance from center Tarris Reed Jr. to get the Huskies to the second round. He had 31 points and 27 rebounds in the game, absolutely owning the paint on both ends of the floor. Still, even with UConn not playing up to standards, it’s a little surprising to see the team laying only 3.5 against UCLA.
There’s a real argument to be made that the Huskies are better than the Bruins on both ends of the floor. KenPom and Bart Torvk both have UConn as the significantly better defensive team, but both give a slight edge to UCLA on offense. However, the Huskies have a higher EFG% (55.3% vs. 53.6%), they create more second chances (36.1% ORB Rate vs. 32.8%), and they’re far more effective inside the 3-point line (57.4% 2PT% vs. 51.8% 2PT%).
UCLA does have the better 3-point shooting numbers, knocking down 37.9% heading into the tournament. That was a top-20 mark in the country. However, UConn isn’t a bad 3-point shooting team, as the Huskies nailed 34.7% from deep before March Madness. They also take more 3s as part of their offense, which helps make up for the slightly lower percentage.
UConn is also an elite defensive team when looking at both 2PT% defense (45.9% allowed) and 3PT% defense (30.5% allowed). On top of that, are we sure Donovan Dent, UCLA’s star guard, is healthy? After getting injured and playing only 10 minutes against Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, Dent shot 4 for 17 from the floor and 0 for 3 from 3 against UCF in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Bad shooting performances happen — especially when postseason pressure kicks in — but Dent is too good to post those numbers. Now, it’ll be interesting to see how he looks against UConn.
The Huskies just seem to be a little more talented than the Bruins, and Dan Hurley has proven to be the best tournament coach in college basketball. All of that is hard to ignore when looking at a 3.5-point spread.
It’s also worth mentioning that UConn isn’t playing too far from home. From Storrs, it’s a quick trip over to Philadelphia, and Huskies fans travel well. I can see UConn having a home-court advantage in this building, adding to the list of reasons to back a program that has won two of the last three NCAA Tournaments.
Estimated Score: Coming soon.
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
