Virginia vs. Tennessee Prediction
In the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Virginia vs. Tennessee is the second-round game on Sunday, March 22 with a trip to Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Virginia vs. Tennessee
When: TBD p.m. ET on Sunday, March 22nd
Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Watch: TBD
Odds for Virginia vs. Tennessee
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Tennessee -1.5 (+102), Virginia +1.5 (-122)
Total: Over 136.5 (-110), Under 136.5 (-110)
Virginia vs. Tennessee Prediction & Preview
Virginia narrowly avoided an upset against Wright State in the opening round, winning 82-73 in a game that was a little too close for comfort. Meanwhile, Tennessee pummeled a popular Miami Ohio team, winning 78-56 in a game that really never felt close. Considering the way these two teams looked in the Round of 64, it isn’t surprising to see the Volunteers as short favorites here. Tennessee also happens to come from the SEC, which is rightfully viewed as a superior basketball conference when compared to the ACC. However, taking an entire season’s body of work into consideration, Virginia appears to be getting overlooked here.
Both of these teams can really defend. Heading into March Madness, these were two top-20 groups when looking at Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (95.0 for TEN and 96.9 for UVA). However, one major difference between these squads is 3-point shooting. The Volunteers are 330th in the nation in 3-Point Rate (31.8%), while the Cavaliers are 38th (46.5%). Also, while Tennessee shoots only 33.8% from deep, Virginia shoots 36.3%. Well, the fact that the Cavaliers are more likely to take — and make — a lot more 3s could be what swings this game, and that’s especially true with Virginia being the better team when looking at both 2PT% (55.2% vs. 52.3%) and 2PT% Defense (44.6% vs. 49.2%).
Outside of out-muscling the Cavaliers, I’m just not sure what the Vols are going to be able to do to make UVA uncomfortable. Also, after a game in which Tennessee turned in a wildly efficient performance against Miami Ohio, the team is simply in for a rude awakening. Miami Ohio is just barely inside the top 150 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (107.7). The RedHawks are a bad defensive team, while the Cavaliers are a good one. And the Vols looked stuck in the mud offensively when facing good defensive teams this year.
There’s also a real chance that Thijs De Ridder will be the best player on the floor here. The Belgian can do a bit of everything as a scorer, and he should be the biggest matchup nightmare out there.
On top of everything else, we all know Rick Barnes is one of college basketball’s least reliable coaches in March. His teams consistently poop the bed at this time of year. You can’t really say the same about Ryan Odom, who led a 16th-seeded UMBC team to a win over Virginia back in 2018. People are expecting big things out of him now that he’s somewhere with stronger resources — and a better talent pool to recruit from.
Estimated Score: TBD
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