Final Four Picks:
Much like the men’s NCAA tournament, there are not a ton of surprises with the four teams who made the Final Four on the women’s side. All four teams have been near the top of the TSI ratings all year, and although you could make a case for USC with a healthy Juju Watkins, I don’t think there’s any dispute these are the best teams in the sport. Both spreads are single digits and both totals are under 140, so the market is expecting some grind-it-out, playoff-level basketball.
Reminder on how to read the projections: If the spread is a positive number, that indicates the team on the left (Home, unless neutral site) is favored by TSI. If the spread is a negative, that indicates the team on the right (Away, unless neutral side) is favored by TSI. TSI total is the projected number of combined points in the game.
Here are my women’s Final Four projections for Friday April 4:
South Carolina (-5) vs Texas, O/U 124.5 (7 p.m. ET)
Dawn Staley has her team back in contention for a championship, riding veterans like Chloe Kitts with the infusion of young talent like MiLaysia Fulwiley and Joyce Edwards back to the Final Four. The Gamecocks are taking on a Texas squad that did beat them earlier in the season at Texas, but whom they destroyed thoroughly in the SEC championship game (which I attended, and Texas had no chance at any point in that game).
Texas is led by SEC player of the year, Madison Booker, and are able to throw athleticism at you from the guard spots and a ton of size in the paint. Texas’s path to victory has to be to ugly the game up and take care of the ball. South Carolina isn’t a tremendous shooting team, but they thrive off turnovers and make you pay for defensive lapses.
TSI score projection: 64-59 South Carolina.
Bet: Under 124.5 (Play to 123.5)
UConn (-7.5) vs UCLA, O/U 135.5 (9 p.m. ET)
I’ll be the first to admit, Geno Auriemma has UConn improving its game faster than TSI has been able to adjust. Paige Bueckers is a household name in the sport and deservedly so, dropping 40 in their Elite Eight win last week. UCLA boasts national Defensive Player of the Year, Lauren Betts, as a dominating presence in the paint, which creates an interesting matchup dynamic in this game with Bueckers on the outside for the Huskies and Betts pounding it inside for the Bruins.
Oddly enough, UCLA actually plays at a faster pace than UConn, but UConn’s offensive efficiency is the best in the nation at 118 points per 100 possessions, although UCLA’s stifling defense has only allowed 81 points per 100 possessions. Again, a fascinating contrast of effectiveness.
TSI score projection: 76-65 UConn.
Bet: UConn -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
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