Heisman Trophy Race: Is Michael Penix Jr. running away with it heading into Week 8?
Caleb Williams was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy before the 2023 season began, but Michael Penix Jr. has moved way out in front entering Week 8. Penix Jr. has had a huge year for Washington, and people seem hungry to see a new winner emerge. Meanwhile, Williams threw three interceptions in a loss last week, so his buzz has really worn off. But there’s still a lot of football to be played. Each week, I’ll dive into the prices and analyze how I’d play this market for the remainder of the season. It’s important to see what type of stats a player has racked up already, but how will they do the rest of the way? I’ll get into that — and a lot more — here!
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Heisman Trophy Candidates
Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. -130 (was +210)
Last week, I wrote that whoever won the Oregon-Washington game would have the Heisman frontrunner. Well, Penix Jr. threw for 302 yards with four touchdowns in that game, giving him 2,301 yards, 20 touchdowns and only three picks this season. Now, Penix Jr. is the heavy favorite to win the Heisman, and it’s hard to argue with that. However, I don’t think this thing is over just yet. Washington still has to play USC, Utah and Oregon State this season, so there’s no guarantee the Huskies will finish the year unbeaten. In fact, I still think there’s a chance they’ll lose two games. With that in mind, I’d be happy if I had a Penix Jr. ticket from earlier in the season. However, I don’t think anybody should be backing him now. If you aren’t yet in on the market, I think you’re better off spraying the board a little.
Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel +1000 (was +1200)
I have been pushing Gabriel as a Heisman candidate since we released our 2023 VSiN College Football Betting Guide. Now, the lefty is second on the odds board and Oklahoma is sixth in the AP Top 25. Gabriel has thrown for 1,878 yards with 16 touchdowns and only two picks this year, and he has also rushed for 208 yards and five touchdowns. He just continues to play well for the Sooners, and I think he has a few more huge performances left in him. Oklahoma plays some bad defenses in the second half of the season. Another thing to love about Gabriel is that the Sooners really should win out. Oklahoma does have road games against Kansas and Oklahoma State coming up, but those games aren’t nearly as daunting as some of the ones Washington will have to play. And if Gabriel and the Sooners have an undefeated season and Penix Jr. doesn’t, this award could very well be returning to Norman.
RELATED: Check out our Week 8 Betting Hub for best bets and stories for the week ahead
Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy +1000 (was +2500)
I have been neglecting McCarthy quite a bit in this market, as I believe the Michigan defense and running game deserves most of the credit for the team’s perfect record. However, McCarthy continues to rise on the odds board, despite the fact that he has thrown for less than 300 yards in all seven of the games the Wolverines have played. I personally wouldn’t touch him in this market, especially with Michigan having a road game against Penn State and a home game against Ohio State coming towards the end of the year. However, I will say that McCarthy appears to be a much better quarterback than he was a year ago. And he’s a big part of the reason Michigan is looking like the favorite to win the College Football Playoff.
Florida State QB Jordan Travis +1200 (was +1600)
Last week, Travis threw for 284 yards with a touchdown and no picks against Syracuse, and he also rushed for two touchdowns in the game. Travis is going to need more performances like that moving forward, and he might even need to do better than that with the way Penix Jr. is capable of lighting up the scoreboard. But Travis is fully capable of posting big numbers and I imagine he’ll have a few more big performances this season. And the Seminoles have a very good chance of finishing the season undefeated and making the College Football Playoff, and that alone would give Travis a shot at the award. So, he’s not quite out of this race yet. But it’s very likely he needs a big outing against Duke, Miami or Florida to put himself back on the map.
LSU QB Jayden Daniels +1400 (was +3500)
I noted last week that Daniels’ odds seemed a little too long, and he’s now looking like a serious threat to win this again. Last week, Daniels threw for 325 yards with three touchdowns in a win over Auburn, and he also rushed for 93 yards in that game. From a numbers standpoint, nobody on the planet can come close to matching Daniels’ production. The only issue with him is that LSU is sitting on two losses this season. And if the Tigers don’t win out, it’s going to be nearly impossible for voters to pick Daniels — even if he does have the individual statistics. That said, keep an eye on LSU’s meeting with Alabama on November 4. If the Tigers win that game, you just might see Daniels neck and neck with Penix Jr. and the other favorites heading into the final weeks of the year.
North Carolina QB Drake Maye +1800 (was +1800)
I’m a little surprised that Maye’s odds didn’t move at all after last week. The star sophomore threw for 273 yards with four touchdowns and no picks in a win over a good Miami team. He has now thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two weeks, and the Tar Heels are looking a lot more dangerous now that Tez Walker is back to lead the wide receiver group. North Carolina is suddenly looking like a team that could make it to the ACC Championship Game. The only things standing in the way of that are a home game against Duke and a road game against Clemson. But the Tar Heels really feel like they have a chance to go undefeated, so I like taking a shot on Maye at these odds.
Oregon QB Bo Nix +2000 (was +600)
Nix feels like he is dangerously close to being eliminated in this race. The Oregon quarterback threw for 337 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against Washington last week, but his team didn’t pull out the win there. That put him way behind Penix Jr. and the Ducks will now need to win out in order for Nix to play his way back into this. And that’s not going to be easy with games against Utah, USC and Oregon State coming down the pipeline. But it all starts with that game in Utah. If Nix can perform at a high level in a win against that elite defense, he’ll still have a shot. So, he’s not completely out of this yet.
USC QB Caleb Williams +2000 (was +230)
Like Nix, Williams isn’t dead just yet. After all, he’s the most popular quarterback in college football, so there are people that legitimately want to see him win this thing for a second year in a row. But Williams was absolutely miserable against Notre Dame in last week’s loss, as he threw three interceptions in that one. And USC could have another loss or two remaining on the schedule, as the team has to play Utah, Washington, Oregon and UCLA. That makes it hard for me to believe he’ll win this award, making him a player to avoid the rest of the way.
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