ACC CONFERENCE OVERVIEW
From a College Football Playoff standpoint, the ACC had grown accustomed to leaving the party early until Miami showed up in a big way this past season. Clemson was a major player in the late 2010s, including two National Championships, but their one appearance in the last five seasons was a one-and-done as the No. 12 team in 2024. Florida State had a cameo appearance back in 2014 and relative newcomer SMU, who joined the conference in 2024, had a very short-lived appearance that same season.
The Hurricanes were unable to finish the job and lost to Indiana, but Mario Cristobal was able to flip the proverbial bird to the doubters and haters with wins over Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss before the 27-21 loss to the Hoosiers. The question now is whether or not Miami can piggyback off of that success. Because if they can’t, it looks like another season in which the ACC will be represented in the CFP simply by virtue of being a major conference with an automatic bid and having a seat at the table tall enough to get a team in the field.
Incredibly, Miami didn’t even play in the ACC Championship Game last season, as that was between Duke and Virginia. The Blue Devils upset the Cavaliers, which kept Virginia out of the CFP. In the end, it worked out and the conference’s best team made the biggest statement in December and January.
Despite some extremely heavy personnel losses, especially on defense, the Hurricanes (-136) still seem to have the inside track in the conference as a very clear odds-on favorite to celebrate in Charlotte on December 5. With SMU (7-1) and Louisville (8-1) as the only other teams lined in single digits to win the ACC at time of publish, it sure looks like the door is open for somebody to step up and challenge Miami. After all, five teams went 6-2 in conference play and five more went 4-4 last season. I’ll be nice and call it parity. Really, this just isn’t a very good conference top to bottom.
BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES
Bill O’Brien has spent a big chunk of his coaching career working with quarterbacks and that has to be his primary focus for this season. Dylan Lonergan and Grayson James split time last season, collectively posting a 19/10 TD/INT ratio, but this was a very poor football team. O’Brien was 7-6 in his first season, but the Eagles fell to 2-10 in Year 2 and didn’t have nearly enough offensive firepower to overcome a defense that ranked 132nd in the nation in yards per play allowed.
He has virtually no D-I experience at the QB position heading into this season and very little in the way of returning production, but a team that went 2-10 needs an overhaul anyway and that’s precisely what has happened in Chestnut Hill, as the program looks to bounce back from its worst season since 2012. If there is no bounce back, it could very well be O’Brien’s last season at the helm.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can O’Brien find a quarterback?
The early leader in the clubhouse looks to be Saginaw Valley State transfer Mason McKenzie, who had zero FBS offers coming out of high school. He’s billed as a dual-threat guy with nearly 6,000 yards of total offense and nearly 50 touchdowns to his name, but this is a serious step up from playing Division II football. At least Grayson Wilson was offered by multiple FBS teams and ultimately enrolled at Arkansas. The North Little Rock native didn’t play, so he gets a clean slate now. O’Brien, who will serve as his own OC, also has a freshman in Femi Babalola to consider, as he had several D-I offers and might be the best long-term option.
Will Ted raise the Roof?
In hopes of fixing the putrid defense, O’Brien has gone to a longtime friend in Ted Roof. The two worked together at Georgia Tech in the ‘90s and again at Duke when Roof was the head coach from 2003-07, which is the only time he has ever been a head coach. He went 6-45 with the Blue Devils, which is probably why he’s only been a DC and a position coach ever since. Roof was semi-retired after getting dismissed by UCF in October 2024, but O’Brien coaxed him off the couch to help a unit that allowed over 6.5 yards per play overall and almost 470 yards per game in ACC play. Roof has a mostly blank slate with leading tackler KP Price back, but his goal will be to find sacks, as BC only had 17 last season.
How much will the growing pains hurt?
In terms of skill-position production, the Eagles have basically none of what they got last season. Leading WR Lewis Bond had 88 catches for 993 yards and he’s gone, along with the other two top receivers. The top returnee is actually TE Kaelan Chudzinski, son of former Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski. Not only is the WR room a ghost town when it comes to statistics, but the team’s top two leading rushers, who accumulated 13 TD and over 1,100 yards, are also gone. Liberty transfer Evan Dickens and holdover true sophomore Bo MacCormack may have to help in the passing game given all the unproven wideouts. If nothing else, Dickens ran for 1,339 yards for the Flames.
Boston College 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 3.5 Wins
The Eagles don’t play in the best conference, but the only clear favorite role will be at home against Maine in Week 3. Road trips to Cincinnati, SMU, Georgia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, and Miami all look like clear losses, which accounts for half of their scheduled games. In their five FBS home games, they’ll face a talent disadvantage and two of them – Rutgers and Virginia Tech – come so early in the season with a brand new roster that they’re likely to get off to a very poor start and this isn’t the kind of team or schedule you want to be chasing with, as my projections call for 3.42 wins.
CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS
The boosters in Berkeley were ready to make a change and that’s precisely what happened, as first-time HC Tosh Lupoi has taken over at his alma mater. The Walnut Creek native played at Cal from 2000-05 and also got his coaching career underway there in 2008. For Lupoi, who has coached under some pretty esteemed mentors, this isn’t a total teardown and rebuild because of the presence of QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, but he will have a mostly blank slate to work with on defense.
Cal has co-OCs and co-DCs, so we’ll see if everybody can work in harmony and raise the ceiling of this program. Being in the ACC presents a lot of logistical challenges and some rough travel, so depth is a priority with this program and it could take some time to build that up. That’s especially true given some of the academic requirements to call Berkeley home.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will it work out better this time?
It is wild to think that Cal had No. 1 overall pick and National Championship winner Fernando Mendoza for two seasons and went just 6-7 both times. For the most part, Justin Wilcox did what he was expected to do defensively, as the Golden Bears held opponents under 28 PPG in six of the last seven seasons. But, it was the offense that never really seemed to be able to get it going, despite a good amount of returning starters and returning production. Hiring another defensive-minded HC in Lupoi might work out, but the onus is really on Jordan Somerville and former NFL WR Ike Hilliard to find some more explosiveness on that side of the ball. Somerville is just 30 years old, but his one year as an offensive assistant with Oregon in 2022 was enough for Lupoi to want him as a co-worker again.
Is JKS going to be a sophomore sensation?
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is a mouthful, but the ‘Ewa Beach, HI native might be a name everybody has to learn to pronounce this season. He was originally committed to Oregon, but transferred to Cal to get a better opportunity prior to his freshman season. He got the keys to this offense and posted over 3,400 passing yards with an 18/9 TD/INT ratio and a 64.2% completion rate as a true freshman. He’ll have to learn a new scheme and will have to develop a rapport with some new WRs, as Jacob De Jesus and Trond Grizzell combined for 163 catches and over 1,800 yards prior to leaving. Hilliard’s presence should really help here, especially with 1,000-yard Ohio standout Chase Henderson and big-bodied Rutgers transfer Ian Strong. With a lot of starting experience on the OL, JKS could have a monster season.
Can the defense turn positives into negatives?
Michael Hutchings and Lupoi didn’t really cross paths at Oregon, as Lupoi came in as the DC in 2022 and Hutchings had moved from Eugene to Bowling Green, coaching up linebackers at Western Kentucky. That was also a one-year stop, as the now 31-year-old spent the last three seasons coaching defensive backs with the Vikings. Cal only had 21 sacks last season and 13 takeaways. Of course there is a big talent gap between Cal and Oregon, but Lupoi’s defense tied for 26th in takeaways with 21 in 15 games and racked up 30 sacks. Cal allowed 4.7 yards per carry and a 61.7% completion rate. Only three starters are back on defense, but that’s probably a good thing.
Cal 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 6.5 Wins
Even though Cal may not match last season’s seven-win total, there’s a very good chance that they are a much more aesthetically-pleasing football team this season. JKS has the chance to grow and this should be a much more innovative squad on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, with a completely new coaching staff, Cal doesn’t have a bye until early November and, while they avoid Miami, Florida State, Louisville, and Georgia Tech, growing pains are inevitable and I like this bet with a projection of 5.74 wins.
CLEMSON TIGERS
Sports are a “what have you done for me lately” business. Is it fair to wonder if Dabo Swinney has built up enough goodwill to withstand another disappointing season? The bar at Clemson is making the College Football Playoff and being a National Championship contender. Going 7-6 while under some scrutiny for being slow to react to the current landscape of college football and the transfer portal doesn’t sit well with a lot of deep-pocketed folks.
On the other hand, as Dabo begins his 19th season at the helm, his Tigers had won at least 10 games in 13 of the previous 14 seasons, going 9-4 in the other one. With scapegoat Garrett Riley gone and old friend Chad Morris back in the mix as OC, is a bounce back season imminent?
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What is the ceiling for the offense?
Normally the loss of a three-year starter and 10,000-yard passer would seem like a big blow. Cade Klubnik had about as underwhelming a senior season as you could have, posting just a 16/6 TD/INT ratio one season after 43 total touchdowns. Injuries didn’t help, as the Tigers lost Bryant Wesco midway through the season and Antonio Williams never seemed fully healthy. Also, it seemed like Swinney was at odds with Riley on a weekly basis, even throwing him directly under the team’s charter bus more than once. To be honest, even though Christopher Vizzina is light on experience with just 105 pass attempts, the return of Morris and a new voice in the huddle will probably help.
Who will better the backfield?
It wasn’t all on Klubnik last season. The Tigers collectively ran for just 3.9 yards per carry, a significant drop from 5.1 YPC the year prior. In 2023, both Phil Mafah and Will Shipley ran for better than five yards per tote. As the sole feature back in 2024, Mafah ran for over 1,100 yards. This past season, Adam Randall had 4.8 yards per pop, but Klubnik’s lack of success running the ball hurt the team’s per-carry metrics. Randall is gone, so we’ll have to wait and see who emerges as the primary ball-carrier. Chris Johnson had over seven yards per carry at SMU and Gideon Davidson was a four-star recruit and top-five RB in the 2025 class per 247.
Could this be a top-10 defense?
Last season’s defensive improvements were overshadowed by offensive regression. Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen did some great things in Year 1 as the DC, as the team was dramatically better against the run and held opponents to just 20.5 PPG. The secondary wasn’t great and the loss of second-round pick Avieon Terrell won’t help, but three of the top four tacklers are back, including the team’s top sack man in Will Heldt. Year 2 in this scheme paired with an offensive uptick and we could be looking at a Clemson team that more closely resembles what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. That would be beneficial, given that Vizzina has to grow into the QB1 role on offense.
Clemson 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
We’ll find out very quickly how Clemson looks for this season with the opener against LSU, but I have to think Swinney is beyond relieved to have Morris back, his OC from 2011-14. It was painfully clear that he and Riley were oil and water and I have to think that had a lot to do with how Klubnik’s Clemson career ended. The defense was extremely good last season and it shouldn’t take much for the offense to improve with the pipeline of talent Dabo has established. Vizzina was a top-10 QB in his 2023 class per 247 and this is an excellent WR room. The Tigers are worthy of a look at 14-1 to win the ACC. My projection is 7.88 wins.
DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Having success at a program like Duke is more and more impressive with each passing season. Not only does the school have some stronger academic requirements than most in that part of the nation, players that come in and have success wind up wanting a bigger stage in the SEC, ACC, or elsewhere. For the third straight season, head coach Manny Diaz had to hit the transfer portal to find a QB, eventually going with San Jose State’s Walker Eget to replace Darian Mensah, who had a strong 34/6 TD/INT ratio last season.
The Blue Devils return their 1,100-yard rusher, but lose their QB, top three pass-catchers, and Diaz has to mostly retool the defense with a handful of returnees, but only a couple of impact starters. Of course, while his old employer went to the National Championship Game out of the ACC, it is Diaz’s Duke team that is the reigning conference champs.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Who does what Darian did?
Mensah was really good for Duke after transferring in from Tulane and now he’s leveled up again as the expected starting QB for, ironically, Miami. He completed over two-thirds of his passes and nearly passed for 4,000 yards while leading the conference in pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. Eget played extensively with the Spartans and had over 5,500 yards, but only 30 TD against 19 INT. It might be up to redshirt freshman Dan Mahan, who got all the spring opportunities he could handle with Eget hurt. OC Jonathan Brewer saw his group improve by a full yard per play and 8.3 PPG in Year 2, but he’s mostly starting from scratch in Year 3.
Should the show run through Sheppard?
Nate Sheppard ran for 1,132 yards and 11 TD with 5.7 yards per pop as a true freshman last season. Despite the loss of an NFL-caliber lineman in the April draft, the Blue Devils are still big and experienced up front. While Eget or Mahan have an intriguing transfer in Penn’s 1,000-yard WR Jared Richardson, their other two primary receivers for this season look like 5-foot-8 Jayden Moore and 5-foot-9 Javen Nicholas, a Charlotte transfer. While Duke’s offensive numbers improved, the defensive numbers got significantly worse in Diaz’s second year, so a ground-and-pound type of approach might be a good way to go at least early on, perhaps leading to some value on Unders.
Can Manny find the manpower on defense?
As an offense, Duke had 6.2 YPP, 285 passing yards per game, and a 66.4% completion percentage. Opponents had 6.3 YPP, 277 passing yards per game, and a 67.2% completion rate. In other words, the Blue Devils were rather fortunate that Mensah played as well as he did and that the team finished +10 in TO margin. Duke was comfortably outgained on a per-play basis in ACC action. The Blue Devils also went from 43 sacks down to 26. Across the board, the defensive numbers were worse, including a 1.3-yard spike in YPP allowed that is hard to overlook given the offensive losses. With Diaz so accomplished on the defensive side, it’s time for that unit to step up.
Duke 2026 Season Win Total – Under 5.5 Wins
Portal poaching for these mid-tier, Power Four schools is hard to overcome annually and I can’t help but wonder if this is the season it hits hard. Duke is 18-9 with two nine-win seasons under Diaz, but the market’s position on Duke seems to say a lot. The schedule is a little tougher with Miami on the conference slate and the talent level of the program definitely seems to have dropped. Even before Diaz, Mike Elko and David Cutcliffe were overachieving in Durham, but the new college football landscape is a lot to overcome year in and year out. My projection, however, is for 5.94 wins.
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
Letting go of the head coach has gotten increasingly expensive in recent years, as agents have been doing one heck of a job securing buyouts for their clients. In some cases, it doesn’t matter and the school and the boosters come together and raise the necessary cash. Other times, the chopping block finds assistants and position coaches as they wear the blame and the shame for things going wrong. In Tallahassee, it seems to be the latter, as Mike Norvell is still employed, but with a new special teams coordinator, a new OC after Gus Malzahn retired, and a second-year DC.
With Norvell’s buyout still sitting north of $50 million at the conclusion of this season, it will be interesting to see if a third straight season of non-contention and not even a bowl game appearance will be tolerated by the decision-makers. After all, Florida State has never had a head coach with three straight losing seasons. That dark cloud could hang over the program throughout the course of the season, especially with a slow start.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will the luck level out?
The Seminoles were 0-5 on the road last season and 2-6 overall in conference play. Don’t let their full-season stats fool you because they completely slaughtered East Texas A&M 77-3 and Kent State 66-10. In those two games, they were +1,101 yards, so their per-play stats and total stats look as though they deserved a far better fate than 5-7. That being said, they were still +0.84 YPP in ACC games, losing with a yardage edge to Virginia, Miami, Stanford, Clemson, and NC State. Is that bad luck or is that bad coaching? Even with more production on both sides of the ball, the Seminoles were still -5 in TO margin and only mustered 14 takeaways in 12 games. However, they also only recovered two of the 14 fumbles they forced, so that weirdly-shaped ball simply didn’t bounce their way.
Is Ashton Daniels the missing piece?
Duce Robinson, the 6-foot-6 one-time No. 1 TE recruit in the nation, had his breakout season with 56 catches for 1,081 yards and freshman Micahi Danzy had over 21 yards per reception. Ousmane Kromah had 5.7 yards per carry on 72 attempts and Samuel Singleton had over seven yards per pop on 51 totes. The majority of those passes and handoffs came from Tommy Castellanos, the Boston College transfer who led the team in rushing with just 557 yards and had a 15/9 TD/INT ratio. Daniels, who had flashes at Stanford, only started three games at Auburn, but now he’s on this roster. It sure seems like Norvell’s albatross buyout is holding the program hostage financially, as Daniels and redshirt freshman Kevin Sperry are not the types of QBs programs like FSU should have given the current landscape. Frankly, neither was Castellanos.
What are the biggest concerns on defense?
First-year DC Tony White fashioned a really good unit. While the Seminoles did get shredded by Florida in the finale and also gave up 46 points to Virginia, most of their data points were really solid. In all, White shaved 6.0 PPG, 1.0 YPC, and 0.8 YPP off of the team’s stat sheet year over year. Only one player had more than 50 tackles and, while he’s gone, the team’s sack leader, tackles for loss leader, and a 133-tackle monster from Southern Miss give White and his assistants a good foundation to build off of and one that they’re likely to need.
Florida State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 6.5 Wins
This isn’t a bet due to the cost-prohibitive vig and the fact that the Seminoles do project to have a good defense. Even if Daniels is an average QB, they can find their way into 7-5 or so, but I do think that the floor is lower than the ceiling is high. With roadies at Alabama, Miami, and Louisville plus home games against SMU, Clemson, and Florida, it’s a tough-looking slate that leaves minimal margin for error. My projection is 6.35 wins.
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS
With three straight losses to end the season, Georgia Tech’s last 10-win season moved another year back in the rearview mirror, but Brent Key got very close in his fourth full season at the helm. The Yellow Jackets actually started the season 8-0 and had a clear path to the College Football Playoff, but inexplicably ran out of gas late in the year, dropping three of their last four and also the bowl game to BYU.
Key and the coaches had success with Texas A&M transfer Haynes King and they’ve turned to the portal again for Alberto Mendoza, the younger brother of Fernando Mendoza, the reigning National Championship QB and No. 1 overall pick. We have no idea what to expect from him since Curt Cignetti rarely took his foot off the gas at Indiana and he didn’t play very much.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How coordinated will Georgia Tech be to start the season?
There are a lot of new faces. Only one player with at least six receptions is back among the WR and TE rooms. Justice Haynes transferred in from Michigan and looks to be the starter at RB in front of Malachi Hosley, who is easily the most productive skill player back for the Yellow Jackets, even though King led the team in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Three starting offensive lineman and the OL coach are also gone. OC Buster Faulkner took the same role at Florida and DC Blake Gideon went back to Texas. So, to summarize – new QB, new feature back, all new WR, two new, albeit very productive, transfer TEs, and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Key has done a magnificent job and turnover is nothing new, but this is a lot.
Did Key make the right hires?
There are silver linings on both sides of the ball, though. New DC Jason Semore has spent the last three seasons with Charles Huff, first at Marshall and then at Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles had 29 takeaways last season, which was the fourth-most in FBS, and 23 of those were interceptions, which led the nation. New OC George Godsey, who played QB for Georgia Tech from 1998-2001, heads back to his alma mater after four seasons as the Ravens’ TE coach. Given that a couple of Tech’s best portal pulls were tight ends, Godsey might be an excellent fit. From a schematic standpoint, I’d look more of a ball-control offense from the Yellow Jackets. GT was 97th in average time of possession last season. Expect a jump there.
Is this the year?
Georgia Tech should enter the season believing that they can be in contention for the College Football Playoff, since the ACC is the weakest of the Power Four conferences and the schedule, with Tennessee at home early in the season, gives them a chance to be in that discussion as the first CFP rankings come out. But, what I’m talking about is whether or not this is the year that Georgia Tech beats Georgia. Regardless of how the ACC and the CFP shake out, that would be a monumental achievement for Key and the program. The Bees last won in 2016, but they’ve come very close, losing in eight overtimes two seasons ago and losing 16-9 in a total rock fight last season. They’ve covered every Georgia game under Key, but this one is back on the road.
Georgia Tech 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 6.5 Wins
The schedule isn’t overly kind to the Yellow Jackets, especially late in the season. If James Franklin has Virginia Tech going in the right direction, the year ends with the Hokies, Pitt, Louisville, Clemson, Wake Forest, and Georgia. Getting to seven wins will be a task. But, given what Key has done thus far, the caliber of coordinators he has hired, and how well the program has done in the portal, I see more reasons for optimism than pessimism, even with a projection of 6.02 wins.
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
Getting to the next level is what Jeff Brohm needs to do at Louisville. Since coming back in 2023, the Cardinals have won 10, 9, and 9 games, but have only made the ACC Title Game one time and have played in the Holiday, Sun, and Boca Raton Bowls. For all of the wins and the strong players that have gone through the program, Brohm has lost as a touchdown or better favorite at least twice in each of the last three seasons. To be fair, one of the 2024 losses in that role was to SMU, who wound up being a surprise CFP team. The others? Pitt, Kentucky, Stanford, Virginia, and Cal.
Those devastating losses illustrate the slim wiggle room for Louisville because Brohm has also led upset wins over Miami, Clemson, and Notre Dame in the last three seasons, with last year’s win over the runner-up Hurricanes in Coral Gables when they were No. 2 in the nation. It is remarkable how consistent Brohm has been in three seasons, not just with the overall record, but also with the path taken to get there.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is Kienholz the missing “Linc”?
Miller Moss turned out not to be the answer, as the USC transfer took over for Tyler Shough and put up some pretty pedestrian numbers last season, falling short of 3,000 yards with just 16 TD passes. But, at least Moss had a lot of collegiate experience and so did Shough when he came over from Texas Tech. This time, Brohm has gone the portal route again, but with Ohio State’s Lincoln Kienholz. The multi-sport star athlete out of South Dakota only threw 36 passes over three seasons in Columbus. The talent should be there, and Brohm does have a more experienced option in two-year West Georgia starter Davin Wydner, but getting the QB position right would be a huge start for the Cardinals.
What can Brown do for Louisville?
That’s actually the law offices of Brown & Brown, as Isaac and Keyjuan (no relation) racked up just shy of 1,600 yards on the ground and 13 touchdowns. Isaac couldn’t live up to his freshman season with 1,173 rushing yards, but he also missed a handful of games. Given that he had 8.8 yards per carry, who knows what he would have done with better health fortunes. Keyjuan had over seven yards per carry. Given that Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy, who had 132 of the team’s 268 receptions and over 54% of the team’s receiving yards, are both gone, Kienholz as a runner and the two Browns are the keys to offsetting a brand-new WR corps.
Does the defensive dominance continue?
Lost in the fact that Brohm always loses a game or two that he shouldn’t is that the Cardinals have had a stellar defense on his watch. Co-DCs Ron English and Mark Hagen are gone, with English stepping away for his son’s senior season at Navy. Brohm kept things internal and promoted LB coach Mark Ivey, who was a holdover from Scott Satterfield’s staff, and DB coach Steve Ellis. Louisville has allowed slightly over 21 PPG in two of Brohm’s three seasons and slightly over 24 PPG in the other. The Cardinals haven’t allowed more than 3.7 yards per carry under Brohm and even allowed just 4.7 YPP last season, finishing 15th in that department. With only one of the top six tacklers back, it could be a struggle to keep the bar that high, but they’ve come out strong from major losses in Brohm’s other seasons.
Louisville 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 8.5 Wins
The conference schedule does not have Miami or Clemson and the games against SMU and Pitt are at home. The season opener against Mississippi in Nashville will be a good litmus test for both teams, especially since the Rebels bid a not-so-fond farewell to Lane Kiffin prior to last year’s CFP. Brohm always finds ways to make the passing game work and this might be his first 200-yards-per-game rushing attack. If Brohm can cut two of his trademark losses down to one, I think this gets home at a nice plus-money price, even though my projection is 8.02 wins.
MIAMI HURRICANES
Clemson finally has some company. No, Miami didn’t finish the job and become the second champion from the ACC in the College Football Playoff era, but at least they were able to make a run. The Tigers have played 11 CFP games. The other ACC teams were Florida State in 2014 and SMU in 2024 prior to the Hurricanes’ run last season. In other words, it took a decade for an ACC team other than Clemson to play more than one CFP game.
Ultimately, winning the last game of the season is what matters, but the Hurricanes did make some conference history and much-maligned head coach Mario Cristobal exterminated some demons, which was good to see given that those demons were once again present in the regular season with two losses as a double-digit favorite. With some raised expectations as the odds-on conference favorite, we’ll see if he can avoid those bumps in the road.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How do we evaluate last season?
A lot of things have to go right to legitimately contend for a championship and that did happen for Miami, as they saved some of their best football for the CFP. Carson Beck was excellent, the defense was ferocious, both coordinators were outstanding, and the Hurricanes beat Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss before falling to Indiana. Here’s the thing – even in a 10-win season two years ago, Miami lost to Georgia Tech and Syracuse in big favorite roles. Cristobal lost to Georgia Tech as a 20-point favorite in 2023. A month-long perfect storm came at the right time, but Miami also got a little bit fortunate to backdoor into the CFP as an at-large after not even playing in the ACC Title Game. Which Miami was the real one?
Is the Miami offense even better?
Beck posted a 30/12 TD/INT ratio, with four of those interceptions coming in the regular-season loss to Louisville. He ultimately threw for over 3,800 yards and completed over 70% of his passes, but you have to wonder if Shannon Dawson’s offense has another gear with an objectively more talented QB. Darian Mensah had a 34/6 TD/INT ratio last season at Duke after a strong season at Tulane. He’s been extremely well-coached throughout his career and enters a great situation here with Mark Fletcher & Co. all back at RB and 1,200-yard WR Malachi Toney back to lead a rebuilt group that includes Mensah’s Duke teammate Cooper Barkate, who had 1,100 yards himself. Dawson impressed me a lot in the CFP and this offense looks loaded.
But, how much will the defense drop off?
Corey Hetherman, another stellar coordinator, got a ton of production out of last season’s defense. Unfortunately, most of that production is gone. While leading tackler Mohamed Toure is back, it won’t be easy to replace 22 combined sacks from Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain. Jakobe Thomas was second in tackles and first in interceptions and he was drafted by the Vikings, while Keionte Scott was taken in the fourth round by the Bucs. This is and has always been a strong recruiting pipeline, especially on defense. Truth be told, offensive losses would concern me way more than defensive ones based on the program’s reputation. But, Hetherman will need to find new go-to guys pretty quickly.
Miami 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 10.5 Wins
Road games at Clemson and Notre Dame absolutely stand out here because of Cristobal’s penchant for losing a game that he shouldn’t as a big favorite. If the ‘Canes drop one of those two, then they have to run the table otherwise for this bet to go through because season win total wagers don’t include conference title games or the playoff. Miami should be in both, but that doesn’t mean Over 10.5 is the way to go here, though this looks like an excellent team on paper. My projection is for 10.62 wins.
NC STATE WOLFPACK
In a college football world where the longtime head coaches are riding off into the sunset or can’t seem to keep up with how frantic the offseason is nowadays, Dave Doeren is starting his 14th season at NC State. While the ceiling in Raleigh doesn’t seem to be very high, the floor certainly is, as the Wolfpack have gone bowling in each of the last six seasons (the 2021 Holiday Bowl was canceled) and all but two seasons under Doeren, one of which was his first year with the program.
However, the Wolfpack haven’t won more than nine games since 2002 and, even in a lackluster ACC, haven’t really been a College Football Playoff contender. With arguably the softest conference schedule, one missing Miami, Clemson, Pitt, SMU, and Georgia Tech, perhaps this could be the season in which the bar gets raised. There are worse preseason bets than NC State at 22-1 to win the ACC where you can hedge in the title game if they get there and face one of those five teams not on the regular season schedule or have a rematch with Louisville or Virginia, as the regular-season opener against the Cavaliers is not considered a conference game.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Who are the impact players on offense?
QB CJ Bailey had 31 total touchdowns and threw for over 3,100 yards last season while adding 215 more on the ground, but he’s without his five top receivers from last season and leading rusher Hollywood Smothers, who had 5.9 yards per carry. Backup QB Will Wilson is still around, as he was a short-yardage ball carrier with 10 touchdowns, but he only threw five passes, which means Coastal Carolina transfer Tad Hudson is the backup. While nobody had more than 629 receiving yards, four players had 430+ receiving yards and seven players had 37+ receptions. The top returnee is Keenan Jackson, who started 13 games and only had 28 catches for 281 yards. Maybe Buffalo transfer Victor Snow and Miami transfer Joshisa Trader, along with holdover RB Jayden Scott, can stand out instead of last season’s by-committee approach.
Who are the impact players on defense?
The obvious follow-up question, but the same concerns with the offense carry over to this side of the ball, too. Leading tackler Caden Fordham had 143 stops with 3.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. His 3.5 sacks tied for second with Travali Price, who is also gone, and right behind Tra Thomas with four. Guess what? He’s gone as well. So is top pass rusher Cain Sloane, who had 16 QB hits, and Sabastian Harsh, who had 13 QB hits. Devon Marshall had 16 pass breakups. He’s also gone. So, second-year OC Kurt Roper and second-year DC DJ Eliot have a lot of work to do with a lot of younger players and a ton of transfers.
How can Doeren’s team raise the ceiling?
As mentioned, there are a lot of impact players gone on both sides of the ball, but even then, this was a slightly above average offense, a pretty average defense, and a team that lacked explosiveness. The Wolfpack had 20 sacks, which was tied for 107th, and just nine interceptions. They were 128th in third-down defense and 51st in third-down offense. They were second TD% in the red zone, so that was one area where they stood out. Conversely, they gave up over 200 plays of 10+ yards. While that’s just a one-year sample size, only the 2021 season was special from a stats standpoint, as the team was +11.4 in PPG and +1.2 in YPP. That team also went just 9-4.
NC State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
The schedule is the primary reason to buy stock in NC State for this season. Avoiding most of the projected top ACC teams is a huge help. The road trip to Stanford is out of a bye week and Cal comes across the country the following week. The non-conference game at Vanderbilt is a tough one, but App State is a winnable non-con game at home. Again, this has been a high-floor program under Doeren and the floor is even higher this season with the friendly schedule, even though my projection is for 7.09 wins.
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
On the whole, the Bill Belichick experiment looked like a failure in Year 1. The program’s PR department was hard at work thanks to Bill’s grad-student-aged girlfriend and the play on the field was about as messy. That said, Belichick has long been known as a defensive genius and the Tar Heels did have their best unit on that side of the ball in quite some time. They only allowed 4.9 yards per play, just 3.5 yards per carry, and just 24.5 PPG, including just 25 PPG to conference opponents.
But, the offense was putrid, a shocking contrast to what we’ve come to expect UNC football to display. Largely because of the offense, the Tar Heels fell short of bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018 and sent OC Freddie Kitchens packing, bringing in Bobby Petrino for that role. Now that UNC seems to have settled into the Belichick era, are better days ahead?
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Does Billy Edwards start all season long? Or at all?
Edwards committed to Wake Forest in 2020 and enrolled in 2021. Since then, he’s been at Maryland, Wisconsin, and now North Carolina, as he only started two games last season and didn’t really look the part before suffering a season-ending injury. It was said that Wisconsin paid about $1 million in total NIL compensation to Edwards. Perhaps UNC got a deal given that he needed a medical waiver to be eligible for this season and did virtually nothing last season. Would UNC be better off with 6-foot-5 Miles O’Neill or 6-foot-4 freshman Travis Burgess? O’Neill was a Petrino recruit to Texas A&M and Burgess is a dual-threat four-star and the No. 9 QB in the class for 247. It sure seems like the Tar Heels should bet on upside and not on Edwards, who was a mediocre starter for the Terps two seasons ago.
Did the Tar Heels prioritize the right players?
The QB position looks to be in flux, but the Tar Heels kept their leading rusher, leading receiver, and leading sack man even though there was a mass exodus to the transfer portal. It sure seems like Belichick and his staff isolated the in-house players they were willing to pay to stay and those they were willing to pay to come to Chapel Bill. RB Demon June only had 464 yards, as the team only ran for 3.7 yards per carry, but he was clearly the best of the backs. WR Jordan Shipp easily paced the team with 60 receptions for 671 yards and June was actually third in receiving yards. Melkart Abou-Jaoude had 10.5 sacks. Kaleb Cost and Jaiden Patterson were also holdovers at defensive back. It’s a solid core. Now we’ll see how the coaches and recruiting coordinators did to bolster it.
What is the perception of the program?
There was certainly a lot of coverage early about North Carolina football with the hiring of Belichick and all of the off-the-field stuff with his girlfriend and others around the program. From the outside, the optics weren’t great. However, the Tar Heels pulled in the 19th-ranked recruiting class of incoming freshmen and over 40 recruits, so whatever the school is selling, some players certainly seem to be buying. Only West Virginia got more class of 2026 commits. We know Belichick can identify talent and the players that fit what he wants to do. A case could be made that there’s a lot of hope this season.
North Carolina 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 4.5 Wins
The schedule is definitely rough with an overseas opener in Dublin against TCU, a road game at Clemson, Miami, Louisville, and Notre Dame at home, and two September bye weeks. That said, the talent level seems greatly improved. I’ll like the Tar Heels more if they go with O’Neill or Burgess at QB over Edwards, but Belichick looks closer to having this whole thing work out. They will need to pull some upsets, though, something they didn’t really do last season. My projection is 4.81 wins.
PITT PANTHERS
The 2025 season for Pitt might as well have been sponsored by nearby Kennywood Amusement Park. It was almost as if the Panthers borrowed a roller coaster and transported it roughly 20 miles up the road to Acrisure Stadium. When the hills, drops, barrel rolls, and inverted loops finished, the Pitt Train rolled into the station with an 8-5 record. In their eight wins, they scored 61, 45, 48, 34, 30, 53, 35, and 42. You never really knew week in and week out which Pitt offense would show up.
We have a pretty good idea this season, as Mason Heintschel officially has the job because Eli Holstein is now with Virginia. Heintschel was solid as a true freshman in his nine starts. He’ll have to develop a rapport with a bunch of new receivers, but knowing what Pat Narduzzi is capable of on defense, the Panthers may be able to take advantage of a friendly schedule and put themselves on the CFP radar.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What should we think about the perplexing Pitt offense?
The Panthers had some big scoring barrages, but this was an offense that was 20th in PPG while sitting just 67th in yards per play and 120th in third-down conversion rate. They allowed 44 sacks, which was the fifth-most in the nation. Collectively, the ball carriers mustered just 3.5 yards per carry. It should be noted here that Pitt had four pick-sixes out of their 15 interceptions, plus a couple of punt return touchdowns. In fact, Pitt special teams played a huge role in their field position, racking up four kick returns of 40+ yards. It was actually a similar story for Pitt in 2024, as they were 30th in scoring offense and 69th in YPP. So, what should we think? I honestly don’t know, but their special teams prowess has a lot to do with it.
Will the special teams be special again?
Well, that’s another big question because special teams coordinator Jacob Bronowski now holds that position at Auburn. In his place, Pitt hired Mike Priefer, who was fired from the same role at North Carolina last season. The Panthers have a new kicker after Trey Butkowski went 20-of-23 on field goals and 43-of-44 on extra points. Sam Hunsaker was only 15-of-22 on field goals at Northern Arizona with a long of 50, a place where the elevation is up over 7,000 feet. Acrisure Stadium/Heinz Field can be very tough for kickers. Pitt also has a new punter and new kick/punt returners. It is an underrated facet of the game, but one that seemed to help Pitt a lot last season and that may not be the case this season.
Can anybody find the block button?
Some publications and previews are talking up the Pitt offensive line because of their experience. Well, those who have been around the last two years have experience in letting defenders get to the QB. Pitt has allowed 87 sacks over the last two seasons. While Heintschel will have new blind side protection from Penn transfer Netinho Olivieri, a lot of guys are back who contributed to the 44 sacks and the 3.5 YPC that ranked 119th in the nation. Perhaps it does get better in Year 3 of the Kade Bell offense, but it is yet another reason to look at last season’s point output with some skepticism.
Pitt 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
The schedule is favorable, there’s no denying that and why the vig on Over 7.5 is what it is. Pitt avoids Clemson and SMU, plus they do not face Notre Dame this season, but there is a very strong possibility that Virginia Tech is markedly better under James Franklin and that teams like North Carolina and Florida State are much better than what we saw last season. Pitt has a late bye with a lot of new faces and will play five of the last eight games on the road, including a trip to Berkeley, another team that could greatly improve, to finish the regular season. My projection is 7.43 wins.
SMU MUSTANGS
It is fair to wonder if this will be the last season in Dallas for Rhett Lashlee. He inherited a decent foundation from Sonny Dykes, but he has taken the Mustangs to a new level, posting two 11-win seasons in 2023 and 2024 and another successful campaign in 2025. While the Mustangs didn’t reach the CFP like they did the previous season, they were still lumped into the five-way tie for second place and beat Miami, but the tiebreakers didn’t fall in their favor after doing themselves no favors in the loss at Cal to end the regular season.
Lashlee is 38-16 here and senior QB Kevin Jennings will run out of eligibility after this season, barring major injury and a potential waiver, so there’s a good chance that suitors will come a-callin’ and he’ll have some tough decisions to make. For now, he has another premier ACC contender in the Lone Star State.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Has SMU done enough to reload on offense?
Jennings posted a 26/13 TD/INT ratio last season and did virtually nothing as a runner, which was the biggest difference from 2024 to 2025. Jennings wasn’t a prolific runner by any means, but he had 300 more rushing yards in ‘24 compared to ‘25. As a guy with double-digit interceptions in each of the last two seasons, offsetting those with production in other ways is important. But, he heads into this season without his two top receivers in yardage from last season and four of the top five, plus leading rushers TJ Harden and Chris Johnson both moved on. SMU went portal shopping for RB Kendrick Raphael, who is at his third ACC school now, and some help at WR and TE. Lashlee is his own OC, but did lose right-hand man Casey Woods to the HC job at Missouri State. As a reminder of how old we’re all getting, D’Eriq King is one of the co-OCs.
Is the defense the bigger worry?
The Mustangs have surpassed six yards per play on offense in each of Lashlee’s four seasons at the helm and last year’s 32.2 PPG were the lowest in that span. But, the defense has been the separator from Lashlee’s first year record of 7-6 to the 31-10 over the last three seasons. Last year’s unit was 0.5 YPP worse than the previous one, but allowed 1.6 fewer PPG. Over the last three seasons, SMU has racked up 125 sacks, and last season, even with Jennings’ interception issue, the Mustangs were +9 in TO margin with 28 takeaways. Former DC Scott Symons is still in Dallas, but now with the Cowboys. Lashlee kept it in-house and promoted from within, but five of the top seven tackles are gone, including leading sack man Isaiah Smith. Per 247Sports, SMU brought in the sixth-ranked transfer portal class in the 17-team ACC with a lot of needs at impact positions on both sides of the ball.
Let’s talk more about sacks, shall we?
Some handicappers I respect greatly look at sack differential as a major tenet of their handicapping. SMU was +16 last season, a decrease from +25 the season prior and +31 the year before that. While Jennings has had some issues taking care of the football, this is a pass-first offense and he has only been sacked 33 times on well over 800 dropbacks. While he’s not an explosive runner, he has 171 carries over the past two seasons that have turned potential negative plays into slightly positive or at least not completely detrimental plays. On the other side, it will be interesting to see if new DC Maurice Crum and holdover co-DC Ricky Hunley Jr. can keep up the pressure on defense, considering all four Mustangs with at least five sacks have moved on.
SMU 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 8.5 Wins
While I don’t expect Lashlee’s team to regress too much, especially with the consistency in their metrics over the last three seasons, we’ll find out a lot about them right away with road games against Florida State and Louisville in September. A road trip to South Bend is also on the slate this season. They’ll catch Virginia Tech and new HC James Franklin on November 7 with a rest disadvantage. Last year’s team was 8-4 in the regular season and beat Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. I could see a similar season this year, though my projection is 8.66 wins.
STANFORD CARDINAL
Armed with a $50 million donation to the NIL collective, Stanford will go into the season with Davis Warren at QB and a first-time head coach. Time will tell if Andrew Luck will get this program going in the right direction, as the Cardinal haven’t won more than four games since 2018. But, the roster looks underwhelming again this season and Tavita Pritchard will have his hands full with a whole lot of travel and a first-time offensive coordinator – er, excuse me, “Andrew Luck Director of Offense”.
Life in the ACC is not easy and Stanford will play roadies at Duke, Wake Forest, Louisville, and Virginia Tech, as well as a road trip to South Bend in mid-October to take on Notre Dame. With high academic requirements, the portal isn’t as much of a shopping spree for Stanford as it is for other schools and that looks like it will hold the program back once again.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will Stanford finally protect the football?
The Cardinal only played six games during the 2020 COVID season and were +2 in turnover margin. Since then, they are -33 over the last five seasons combined. Ben Gulbranson, who got the bulk of the passing reps, had more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (9) and the team collectively posted a 14/12 TD/INT ratio. Warren, who missed last season with a torn ACL, had a 7/9 TD/INT ratio at Michigan. UCF transfer Dylan Rizk could be an option or true freshman Mike Mitchell, who originally committed to Vanderbilt, may get some looks. If nothing else with Pritchard, he’s been working with Jayden Daniels over the last couple of seasons and had five seasons as the Commanders OC, so he may find success with one of the QBs.
Will there be more protection in Palo Alto?
First-time OC Terry Heffernan has spent a lot of time as an offensive line coach in his career and that can only be a good thing for this team. Over the last five seasons, along with turning the ball over too much and not forcing enough turnovers, the Cardinal have allowed 31, 41, 41, 39, and 41 sacks, while only getting 15, 23, 23, 26, and 23 of their own. Whether it is Warren, Rizk, or Mitchell, all three are more mobile than their predecessors, so that should also help the cause. The sack differential isn’t the only reason why Stanford has struggled, but being -83 over the last five seasons sure isn’t helping.
Can Kris Richard fix the defense?
The offensive shortcomings of the program have certainly been on display, but this defense has really taken a turn for the worst as well. Last year’s defense was the first since 2019 to allow fewer than 30 PPG, not that 29.2 PPG is that much better. It was also the first defense to allow under 6.0 YPP since 2018. Richard, the longtime NFL DC and DB coach, has been named the “David Shaw Director of Defense” and this will be his first time at the collegiate level since he was a grad assistant at USC in 2008-09. Fortunately, Stanford has a lot of smart kids, so they should be able to grasp a complex NFL-caliber scheme. There aren’t many returnees on defense, but one of them is Matt Rose, who had nearly twice as many tackles as any other player.
Stanford 2026 Season Win Total – Under 3.5 Wins
Last year’s team was pretty awful in a lot of ways and still got to four wins, even after starting 0-2. But, the schedule is very worrisome, especially with all the travel, plus Stanford faces NC State and Louisville with both of those teams off of their byes. In their four wins last season, Stanford was +10, -43, -151, and -15 in yardage differential, so they got fortunate to win the games that they did. Realistically, the product on the field will probably look better, but that doesn’t mean it will translate into victories. My projection is 3.65 wins.
SYRACUSE ORANGE
There may not have been a more impactful injury for a team than the loss of Steve Angeli for Syracuse. The Orange were off to a 3-1 start and beat Clemson as a 17-point underdog, but the Notre Dame transfer was lost for the season and the bottom completely fell out. Angeli posted a 10/2 TD/INT ratio and was thriving in OC Jeff Nixon’s system, but then the others who took over posted a 7/13 TD/INT ratio and the Orange lost eight straight games by 35, 13, 17, 25, 17, 28, 63, and 22 points.
Going from a stunning 10-3 record in 2024, as Fran Brown brought in a spectacular transfer portal class, to 3-9 was one of the biggest declines in the nation. That will happen with a -13 TO margin and a -17 sack margin. Also, Syracuse was a regression candidate after going 10-3 with just a +4.9 PPG differential the season prior, including two overtime wins. It seems very, very likely that the 2026 season falls somewhere in the middle.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will the real Steve Angeli please stand up?
Angeli only threw 80 passes at Notre Dame, though he did have a 10/1 TD/INT ratio with a 72.5% completion rate. He was a real spark plug for the Orange offense with over 1,300 yards in his four starts before the injury robbed him, and potentially Syracuse, of what looked to be a special season. Maybe Angeli, who was a three-star incoming freshman per 247Sports in 2022, and a three-star transfer per the same outlet in 2025, was simply going to thrive with his first real shot at starting. If the clock strikes midnight and he turns into a pumpkin, Amari Odom started at Kennesaw State and Malachi Nelson is on his fourth team after being one of the top recruits in his class several years ago. Angeli does have a brand-new crop of WRs, as the top returnee caught eight passes last season.
Does the defense set the ceiling for the season?
Let’s assume that Angeli comes back fine, develops a rapport with his new wideouts, and the offense is humming. Angeli’s absence and a lot of carelessness with the football really hurt the defense, as they allowed 34.9 PPG and 6.5 YPP. Even when the Orange went 1-10 during the 2020 COVID season, they only allowed 32.7 PPG. Over the final eight games, the Orange allowed 30+ points seven times and also allowed Notre Dame to drop 70 on them. The hire of Vince Kehres may be one of the best DC hires of this coaching cycle. The former Mount Union head coach went 95-6 at the D-III level with two National Championships before spending the last six seasons as Toledo’s DC. In that span, the Rockets allowed between 13.3 PPG (last season) and 25.1 PPG, while allowing over 5.0 YPP just once.
Are too many people sleeping on Syracuse?
Angeli back. Kehres hired. Brown also went to the MAC and grabbed special teams coordinator Alex Bayer from Bowling Green. Per Phil Steele’s special teams rankings, Syracuse has been 131st and 100th in the Brown era, though Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings had Syracuse 35th, so that is a massive discrepancy between the two. In any event, the Orange were 83rd in kick return average and 106th in punt return average. Better field position with a healthy offense and an improved defense means that Syracuse could truly be better in all three facets of the game.
Syracuse 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 4.5 Wins
The schedule is the main thing to hold against the Orange. They open with New Hampshire and Cal and then play their first road game at Pitt on a short week. The early bye followed by nine straight games is not easy, but the Orange do avoid any long road trips. In fact, all six road games are in the Eastern Time Zone and their toughest games on paper – Louisville, SMU, Clemson, Notre Dame – are at home. Even though they’ll be an underdog a lot, this might be one of my favorite win total bets in the ACC, despite my projection of just 4.68 wins.
VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
After three underwhelming seasons in Charlottesville, Tony Elliott struck gold last season. Investment into the offensive line paid tremendous dividends, as the Cavaliers went from 47 sacks down to 18 and from 3.7 yards per carry up to 4.6. With those improvements, the offense jumped up 8.1 PPG and the defense improved by 9.2 PPG, all leading to an 11-3 season and a spot in the ACC Championship Game as the conference’s only team to go 7-1 in league play.
But, the obvious, burning question is whether or not that was a one-year flash in the pan or something more. Elliott won 11 games combined in his first three seasons at the helm. Even though the OL remains mostly intact and provides a really good foundation for the offense, virtually everybody else on that side of the ball is new and that is the major area of concern going into the 2026 season.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is the offense sustainable?
Simple question. Complex answer. Even in UVA’s three losses last season, they were +98, +124, and +11 yards, only getting outgained three times, which, ironically, all came in wins. But, the losses are really heavy at the skill positions. Veteran QB Chandler Morris is gone after throwing for 3,000 yards and a 16/9 TD/INT ratio. More importantly, J’Mari Taylor is gone after rushing for over 1,000 yards with 14 TDs. He was also fourth in receptions and receiving yards. Everybody who finished ahead of him is also gone. So, this will be a brand new offense in that regard with Penn State/Missouri transfer Beau Pribula and also Pitt transfer Eli Holstein at QB. 247Sports has Virginia with the eighth-ranked transfer class in the ACC, which includes those two, plus RB Peyton Lewis and WR Da’Shawn Martin.
Is the defense sustainable?
The obvious follow-up question. In the other seasons under Elliott, the defense allowed 24.0, 33.8, and 28.8 points before last season’s 19.6 PPG. Four of the top six tacklers are back and Virginia’s portal haul on defense seems more proven than their portal haul on offense. Last season’s uptick came under second-year DC John Rudzinski, so maybe it was just a matter of players knowing the scheme and thriving within it. Top pass rushers Daniel Rickert and Mitchell Melton are both gone, along with leading tackler Devin Neal. It’s entirely possible that Rudzinski’s third year will live up to last season, but it seems unlikely. UVA had 31 sacks last season after racking up 30 over the previous two seasons combined.
“Cluster Luck” or scheme?
I was first introduced to the term “Cluster Luck” in Joe Peta’s book, Trading Bases. Essentially, the root of the concept is that performance with runners in scoring position, both offensively and defensively, dictates a large chunk of what happens during the season. Because performance with RISP is volatile from season to season, it isn’t really a stat to rely on for projecting future results. To bring it back to Virginia football, the Cavaliers were 11th in third-down conversion rate on offense and second on defense. UVA had nearly twice as many offensive third-down conversions than their opponents and 35 more in conference games. The Cavaliers ran 163 more plays than their opponents. Will they achieve something similar this season?
Virginia 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
This isn’t a bet for me, but just a pick for the Guide. The truth is that it depends on what you think about teams like North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Florida State because the Cavaliers avoid Clemson and Miami yet again. They do play at SMU and play West Virginia in Charlotte, so the schedule is harder overall. While 8-4 is the most likely outcome, that feels closer to the ceiling for this team with the harder schedule and some regression signs, even though my projection is 7.79 wins.
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
This won’t be the best team in the ACC, but could very well be the most compelling. James Franklin gets a fresh start in Blacksburg and the program is in the midst of a badly needed refresh. Of course, the likeliest scenario given what we saw Franklin do for years at Penn State is that the Hokies go 9-3 while losing to Clemson, SMU, and Miami. Kidding aside, that would be a huge year for Virginia Tech as they try to get back to the standards that they had under Frank Beamer and for a little bit under Justin Fuente.
Those three aforementioned games are all on the road, so that does limit the ceiling for the Hokies in Year 1, but the schedule is set up to get the hype machine moving quickly. Franklin’s hiring should add just a little more juice to the Enter Sandman entrance at Lane Stadium and elevate the talent level of the program in a hurry.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How talented are the Hokies?
Per 247Sports, VT brought in the fourth-ranked transfer portal class in the conference, which is a list that includes Penn State QB Ethan Grunkemeyer, UNC QB Bryce Baker, WR Que’Sean Brown. The 5-foot-8 Brown had over 1,200 yards at Duke. Grunkemeyer wound up starting seven games for the Nittany Lions last season and has some chemistry with new TE Luke Reynolds. Marcellous Hawkins had over six yards per carry and should be featured more prominently without a running threat like Kyron Drones at QB. The offense only mustered 21.4 PPG, but had 4.9 YPC, even with Drones bringing the average down, so Franklin was able to focus on the skill spots instead of rebuilding the OL.
Can you quantify continuity?
Probably not directly, but Franklin likely gained some trust from the players and respect from the athletic department by keeping Brent Pry within the program as the DC. Franklin and Pry do go way back, so it was just a perfect-storm situation, but one that should ease the transition of leadership. The defense didn’t experience a mass exodus, as four of the top six tacklers returned and a lot of guys who played in some capacity last season. With Pry able to focus more on the defense, he brought in Jaquez White from Troy to fill a need at corner. Also, several Penn State players followed Franklin. The defense was uncharacteristically bad last season with over 30 PPG allowed, but improvement seems imminent.
Is Virginia Tech this year’s Virginia?
The Cavaliers won 11 games over three seasons before going 11-3 last season with an appearance in the ACC Title Game. It’s entirely possible, as the Hokies hit the portal for passers and the talent level has been elevated with virtually each position group. The biggest difference between VT and UVA is that the Cavaliers didn’t have to play SMU, Clemson, or Miami and the Hokies do. The Commonwealth Clash at the end of the season could be a really intriguing game if Franklin can flip the script from his Penn State days of losing to Ohio State and Michigan as the class of the conference.
Virginia Tech 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 6.5 Wins
The juice is somewhat pricey here, but the Hokies getting off to a 5-0 start prior to a trip out west to Cal is very much on the table. The latter portion of the schedule is where things really ramp up, but that may also be about the time Franklin finds a groove with his team. The talent pipeline in the DMV and the old stomping grounds for Franklin in Pennsylvania should really elevate the baseline for this team in short order, probably as soon as this season. The thing about Franklin is that he doesn’t often lose games he should win, something that trips up nearly every other ACC program. My projection is 7.1 wins.
WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS
One of the more surprising performances from a first-year head coach came out of Winston-Salem, where Jake Dickert led the Demon Deacons to a 9-4 record. The hire was met with mixed feelings when Dave Clawson amicably parted ways with the program, but Dickert came over from Washington State and immediately had success. Sustaining that success will be a chore, though.
There are a ton of new faces here, even though Wake Forest has been doing some pretty good fundraising of late for their NIL budget. The offense is basically brand new aside from leading receiver Carlos Hernandez. The defense has a fair number of holdovers and DC Scottie Hazelton did an outstanding job with that group last season. With a much more difficult schedule, we’ll see how Dickert does in Year 2.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Should Wake Forest have aimed higher at QB?
Robby Ashford and Deshawn Purdie gave the Demon Deacons probably more than they were expecting with an 18/11 TD/INT ratio and Ashford’s nine rushing scores with 554 yards. There was no clear-cut No. 1 for a while, as Ashford, who was originally at Auburn and then South Carolina, eventually settled in as the starter. Because of his mobility, Wake Forest only allowed 17 sacks after surrendering 91 over the two previous seasons and at least 35 in each of the last four seasons. Southpaw slinger Gio Lopez isn’t that same type of player and this is a rebuilt offensive line. Lopez only had a 10/5 TD/INT ratio at nearby North Carolina and seems like a very underwhelming addition for co-OCs Rob Ezell and Dan Enos.
Can the defense orchestrate a repeat performance?
Hazelton’s unit was truly stellar. The Demon Deacons shaved off over 10 PPG and 1.4 YPP year over year with the new coaching staff. In fact, Wake Forest was ninth in YPP nationally and had a top-10 red zone defense. Leading tackler Nick Anderson is gone, but top pass rusher Langston Hardy is back after he had seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Safety Davaughn Patterson couldn’t declare for the NFL Draft, but he’ll be in it this upcoming April. The strength of the returnees on defense, coupled with some plug-and-play transfers, brings me back to the first question. It doesn’t seem like Wake Forest had to shell out a lot to keep the defense intact, so why not shoot higher on offense?
Have you seen the Regression Monster?
If you haven’t, you’re about to. Wake Forest beat Virginia Tech, SMU, and Virginia in underdog roles last season. The defense was spectacular in the red zone, but they seemed to bend a lot up until that point, as the Deacs were tied for 119th in red zone attempts against, but tied for 57th in red zone TDs allowed and finished 10th in red zone TD%. Similarly, the offense was tied for 86th in red zone attempts and tied for 104th in red zone TDs. They tied with Texas State for the most plays of 60+ yards with 11 and tied for second in plays of 50+ yards with 15. I strongly question their ability to keep up those types of situational numbers.
Wake Forest 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
I think Dickert is a good coach and I thought that at Washington State, too, but there are a lot of red flags blowing violently in the breeze with this team coming off of last season. Obviously that’s been accounted for in the market number here, but the road schedule is tough, plus Miami and then the two (for better or worse) ACC Championship Game teams in Virginia and Duke at home. Even the non-conference roadie at Purdue could be a tricky one. With one of the worst portal hauls in the conference and a lot of lost production on offense, a downturn should be expected, even though my projection is 6.01 wins.
