SEC CONFERENCE OVERVIEW
The time at the top of the country has seemingly come to an end for the SEC. It has been three years since a member of the conference won a national championship. The Big Ten has dominated the last three seasons, all with different champions. The conversation all offseason has been about the SEC reclaiming its throne, and there is certainly a strong chance the conference can do just that with its depth of championship contenders.
Georgia — the last SEC team to win it all — looks primed to grab its third title of the Kirby Smart era. The Bulldogs have a Heisman Trophy contender in quarterback Gunner Stockton and one of the most experienced rosters in the country.
Texas has the experience as well, and the blue-chip prospect at quarterback in Arch Manning. Steve Sarkisian has some CFP wins under his belt and is dying to add to that this season. Given the additions the Longhorns made in the portal, as well as the returning production throughout the roster, the market believes this team is a true contender.
Then, you get to some of the dark-horse contenders for both a conference title and national championship.
Alabama and Texas A&M both made the CFP last season, but shared similar fates in being dispatched by the eventual participants in the national championship game. The Crimson Tide will have to work in a new quarterback, but they do have a talented roster with a great defense. So too do the Aggies. The difference between the two is the experience Marcel Reed has at quarterback.
Let’s not forget Ole Miss, which finished a drive short of a berth in the final, or Oklahoma, which returns most of the best defense in the country.
The expectations for the SEC are always a national championship. This year is no different, and the conference boasts many potential contenders. The depth of the conference in terms of quality is not on par with the Big Ten, but no one will be shocked if a program from this conference is hoisting a trophy come January.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
After missing out on the College Football Playoff in his first season at the helm, Kalen DeBoer led Alabama to the CFP in 2025. The Crimson Tide were a flawed, one-dimensional offense but managed to dispatch the Sooners before the eventual national champion Hoosiers sent them packing. In Tuscaloosa, that is a disappointing season.
DeBoer must now rebuild the offense after numerous departures, including first-round selection Ty Simpson. Alabama has a young, high-upside quarterback potentially ready to replace him, but can DeBoer meet the lofty expectations set by a rabid fanbase? If everything clicks on offense, this is a Crimson Tide team that has the pieces to bring home its first national title of the DeBoer era.
Who takes over for Ty Simpson at quarterback?
The expectation is that redshirt freshman Keelon Russell will be the starter for Alabama this season, but DeBoer will have a “competition” for the job when fall camp begins. Russell adds an athletic dynamic to the position that Simpson did not, and it is one of many reasons why many expect him to win the job. Russell also fits the RPO offense that DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb want to run. The Tide finished 31st in EPA per play through the air and 21st in success rate when dropping back. Whether it is Russell or senior Austin Mack, both will likely be less efficient than Simpson was a season ago. Bettors can expect more production on the ground from the position, though.
Can Alabama find its rushing attack once again?
There was an immense load on the passing attack’s shoulders last year because Alabama could not run the ball. The Crimson Tide averaged just 3.4 yards per carry and 104 rush yards per game. They finished 132nd in rush success rate (34.5%), placed in the 18th percentile in rush EPA per play and in the sixth percentile in explosive run rate. Leading rusher Jam Miller (520 yards) is gone, and so too are six offensive linemen who started games. Sophomore Michael Carroll — who will start at either right guard or tackle — is the lone returnee. Perhaps that is a good thing for such an anemic rush offense. Either way, finding some semblance of balance with this unit needs to be a priority this season.
Is this team a national championship contender?
If Russell wins the job and is everything most expect, the answer is yes. Many of the questions with the Tide are on the offensive side of the ball. On defense, seven starters are back from one of the better units in college football. The Tide finished 29th in opponent EPA per play and 25th in success rate. In fact, the defense got somewhat unlucky last season, ranking in the 91st percentile in early-down EPA per play but the 51st percentile in late-down success rate. Alabama’s secondary is one of the best in the country, with three starters back and five-star freshman Jorden Edmonds now in the mix. The Tide have what they need on defense. If the offense hits, this team should be able to romp through a manageable schedule and into the College Football Playoff.
Alabama 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 8.5 (+100)
The belief in Alabama rests solely on the shoulders of Russell. Given DeBoer’s track record of developing quarterbacks, it’s a safe bet that Russell will be what most expect him to be. His athleticism should also help turn around an offense that really struggled to run the ball last year. So too should the investments in the offensive line. Defensively, this unit should be just as productive as it was, with seven starters back.
The Tide have an extremely favorable schedule as well. They avoid Texas and Ole Miss. Alabama must face both Georgia and Texas A&M, but it gets to host both. The toughest road trip in conference will be to LSU in November. Oddly enough, it seems the Crimson Tide, of all programs, is flying under the radar. Bettors should invest early — not only in a win total, but in conference odds and national championship odds.
ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
After a 2–0 start to the season, the wheels came off for Arkansas. Sam Pittman lost his job in September, the Razorbacks lost the final 10 games of the season, and the program fell into the cellar of the SEC. In order to right the ship, the athletic department brought in Ryan Silverfield from Memphis. Silverfield never won the AAC in his time at Memphis. In fact, he never made it to the conference title game. But he did win 50 games and four bowls. He is the program builder Arkansas needs.
Arkansas has won nine games just once since its last double-digit win season, which was in 2011. Just getting back to bowl season would be a win for Silverfield in his first season, but the challenge is immense with a new roster and a brutal schedule.
What can KJ Jackson provide as the starting quarterback?
Jackson is allegedly in a battle for the starting job with Memphis transfer AJ Hill when fall camp begins, but it is assumed the sophomore will be under center when Arkansas hosts North Alabama in Week 1. Jackson appeared in five games last season but played at length in the final two against Texas and Missouri. In those contests, he went 27-of-46 (58.7%) for 332 yards and two touchdowns. He added 41 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. The southpaw showed an ability to be a pocket passer with decent touch in his limited time on the field last season. Bettors should expect him to emerge from camp as the starter, but time will tell if his upside hits.
How does the coaching staff replace all the production at the skill positions?
As is usually the case when a coaching staff gets fired, there was an exodus of production from Fayetteville this offseason. The Razorbacks lost their leading rusher and top three receivers. At running back, Braylen Russell (55 attempts, 291 yards) is the lead returnee. CJ Brown (28 receptions, 319 yards) is the top returning receiver. Sutton Smith followed Silverfield from Memphis, and they nabbed Jasper Parker from Michigan to fill out the running back rotation. Wide receiver Jamari Hawkins (38 receptions, 623 yards) transfers in from Memphis as well. It’s unknown how the pecking order will shake out, but Arkansas will be relying on a lot of new faces at the skill positions this season.
How much can this defense improve?
The 2025 season was ugly for this unit. Arkansas gave up 33.8 points per game, 6.3 yards per play and 4.7 yards per carry. The Razorbacks were 134th in adjusted opponent EPA per play and 120th in defensive success rate. There is plenty of hope this group has a better season in it this time around. Defensive end Quincy Rhodes (44 tackles, 8 sacks) elected to return. With him are a litany of transfers, including a nearly rebuilt linebacker group. One of the big wins in the portal was Tulane corner Joker Johnson (42 tackles, 9 pass breakups, 4 interceptions). Rhodes and Johnson are strong cornerstones for this defense. It’s likely this group won’t be among the best in the country, but it has the pieces to creep back toward average under new defensive coordinator Rob Roberts.
Arkansas 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 4.5 (-166)
Silverfield has a good offensive background, which should lead to positive development of Jackson at quarterback and decent production from this offense. However, there is a steep mountain to climb for this defense, and the challenge of an SEC schedule will likely do the Razorbacks in.
Arkansas must travel to Utah, Texas A&M and Texas. It hosts Georgia and LSU. There are some spots on this schedule in which the Razorbacks could steal some victories — home games against Tulsa, Missouri and South Carolina are potential wins. So too are road games at Vanderbilt and Auburn. But at best, those are all coin-flip spots that an Over bettor would need to consistently land on the right side of..
AUBURN TIGERS
Auburn has hit some dark times. The program has not won a bowl game in over eight years. The last winning season came in 2019, in Gus Malzahn’s penultimate season as head coach. The highest place in the AP Poll over the last four seasons came in Week 4 last year at No. 22. A 1-7 SEC campaign — the worst since an 0-8 season in 2012 — seemed to be the lowest point for the program. But it is always darkest before dawn.
The sun rising on the horizon comes in the form of head coach Alex Golesh and transfer quarterback Byrum Brown. The dynamic duo were dominant for South Florida. Now, they come to Auburn with the goal of lifting a once proud program back to prominence.
Can USF win the SEC?
No, that is not a typo. Golesh was hired as head coach this offseason, and to get the ball rolling he decided to essentially bring his entire offense with him. Offensive coordinator Joel Gordon has worked under Golesh the last three years. Brown played for Golesh his entire career, and six wide receiver transfers from South Florida are now in an Auburn uniform. That is all good for continuity, but does the talent level translate to this level of competition? The Tigers must go to Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. They host Florida and LSU. Golesh is a great coach, but last season’s USF team is essentially taking on an SEC schedule. That could be a disaster in Year 1.
Speaking of Byrum Brown, can he be even better?
Brown was incredible for Golesh and USF last season. The signal-caller completed 65.8% of his passes, amassed 4,238 yards both passing and rushing and totaled 42 touchdowns. He is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and he already has a win over an SEC program under his belt, as he led the Bulls to a win over Florida in The Swamp. Brown will have a couple of familiar faces to throw the ball to as well. Jeremiah Koger (38 receptions, 597 yards) and Keshaun Singleton (50 receptions, 877 yards) both followed Golesh to Auburn as well. Running back Jeremiah Cobb — one of the few holdovers from the previous regime — should benefit greatly from the offense and the presence of Brown at quarterback. If Brown just matches his production from last season, this could be a dangerous group that can catch teams sleeping in conference.
How much does retaining DJ Durkin at defensive coordinator help?
One of the savvy moves Golesh made was keeping Durkin around on his staff. A lot of things went wrong for Auburn last season, but the defense was consistent and has been under Durkin. Last year, the Tigers allowed just 20.7 points per game and 2.9 yards per carry. For the first two seasons under Durkin, they have allowed fewer than five yards per play. Only four starters are back, but the returning production is huge. Xavier Atkins, the team’s leader in tackles, sacks and tackles for loss, is back. Sylvester Smith-Reed and Rayshaun Pleasant return as well after combining for 44 tackles, four pass breakups and two interceptions. There are some positions which need production to emerge, but the returning production and continuity at play-caller could help this team exceed expectations.
Auburn 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 6.5 (-115)
Golesh has everything he needs to hit the ground running in his first season at the helm. He’s got one of the best quarterbacks in the country, skill-position talent that has familiarity with the system and a good defense with a strong foundation. There’s hardly a better situation for a new coach to be found.
The Tigers do have some stiff tests on the schedule this season. They have to go to Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama in conference play. But the home schedule is more than manageable, and they avoid both Texas teams this season. Golesh and Brown have already shown an ability to score a big upset. They should be able to handle the winnable opportunities on this schedule and get back to the postseason at the very least. Brown is also a legit threat to contend for the Heisman.
FLORIDA GATORS
It has been a slow, steady decline for Florida over the last four years. Four of the last five seasons have seen the Gators post a losing record. They have just one bowl win since the Orange Bowl victory over Virginia in 2019, and the program has not appeared in the CFP rankings since 2020.
Enter Jon Sumrall.
Sumrall has known nothing but success as a head coach in college football. He enters his fifth season as a head coach at the FBS level looking for a fifth consecutive berth in a conference title game. Everywhere he goes, winning follows. It’s a different beast down south, but the excitement is real in The Swamp, and rightfully so.
Who will lead the Gators’ offense?
The likely answer to this question is Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo. Tramell Jones appeared in two games for Florida last year, but he is not Sumrall’s guy. Philo was not only brought in by Sumrall, but he also played under offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner at Georgia Tech the last two seasons. Philo — a four-star transfer, according to 247 — has some dual-threat ability to his game, but what the Gators will need most is for him to protect the football, as Florida was -1 in turnover differential. He will also need to turn around an offense which finished 116th in EPA per play through the air. There’s nowhere to go but up for this offense after 2025, but signal-caller is a massive question.
Can the defense do its part?
For the past six seasons, Florida’s defense has been shockingly average. In 2025 the Gators allowed 24 points per game and 5.7 yards per play. They finished 67th in the country in adjusted opponent EPA per play and 82nd in success rate. A better offense should help this unit by just giving it more time off the field, but it still needs to be better. Six starters from last season are back, and Sumrall brought in defensive coordinator Brad White, who served under Mike Stoops at Kentucky in the same role. The top two tacklers from last season, Myles Graham and Bryce Thornton, as well as the two leaders in sacks, Jayden Woods and Kamran James, return. The pieces are there for improvement.
Does Sumrall’s magic translate to the SEC?
Sumrall is the college football version of King Midas. Everything he’s touched has turned into gold. He took over a Troy program that went 15-20 in the three previous seasons and went 23-5 while winning the Sun Belt twice. Sumrall then departed for Tulane, led the Green Wave to 20 wins in two seasons and the College Football Playoff. There’s no question that he knows how to build a program, but this is a big leap that many have failed in the past. It is unlikely he can get the Gators to the heights of the CFP — Florida has a daunting schedule — but improving on the four-win season Florida posted last season seems likely given Sumrall’s success at his previous stops.
Florida 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 7.5 (-156)
Sumrall is an insane program builder, but the run of conference title game appearances at new programs has to end at some point. He has all the pieces to turn Florida around this season and get them bowling at the very least, but eight or more wins seems like a difficult task.
The Gators will host Ole Miss and Oklahoma, which is obviously beneficial against foes that some believe can contend for the conference title. They go to Auburn and Texas this season, the latter of which will be extremely difficult, though both are losable contests. Florida also gets the short end of the stick in the annual meeting with Georgia, as it will take place in Atlanta due to renovations at EverBank in Jacksonville. That essentially makes it a road game for the Gators. FAU, Campbell and Florida State could all be wins, but outside of the first two there are hardly any high-probability victories on this schedule. Sumrall will have this team playing much better, but it’s unlikely eight or more wins is in the cards his first season.
GEORGIA BULLDOGS
Since 2017, Georgia has participated in every SEC Championship Game but one, which took place in 2020. The Bulldogs have won the last two and three of the last four. To say an SEC title is the expectation in Athens is an understatement. Georgia has dominated the SEC over the last 10 years. The internal expectation remains the same: Do it again.
The Bulldogs have the horses to get it done for a third consecutive year. Fourteen starters are back from a 12-win team. Gunner Stockton is one of the early expected contenders for the Heisman Trophy, and he has a retooled offensive line in front of him. Kirby Smart has some work to do on a defense that disappointed last season, but his track record tells us he will get that unit right.
Do the Bulldogs have a Heisman contender at quarterback?
Stockton was as clutch as they came last season for Georgia. In the fourth quarter, he completed 83.6% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt and totaled nine touchdowns. The Bulldogs also finished in the 79th percentile in late-down success rate despite placing in the 56th percentile in average third-down distance. That was all in large part due to Stockton’s heroics. The redshirt senior has only one of his top five receivers from last season back, but he has a strong offensive line and a great stable of running backs behind him. Georgia is the favorite at one shop and the second choice at another to win the SEC, and they are one of the highest power-rated teams in the country. The team has the 20th-ranked schedule in terms of strength, but that means Stockon has the opportunity to put forth a strong resume for Heisman voters. At 20-1, there are worse bets to be made.
Will the returning production unlock Georgia’s rushing attack?
On paper, the Georgia run game is set up to have a strong season. Three starters are back along the offensive line, one of them being Fourth Team All-American center Drew Bobo. The Bulldogs also return their top three rushers outside of Stockton. Nate Frazier (958 yards, 5.5 yards per carry) should be a 1,000-yard rusher. However, all of this production is back from an inefficient running game last season. Georgia finished 2025 in the 32nd percentile in explosive run rate and the 54th percentile in early-down success rate. Stockton was largely forced to bail the offense out on long third downs, which is not sustainable. The offensive line is projected to have two sophomores and a freshman starting this season, along with Bobo. Perhaps some new blood will allow this running game to find a gear it could not a season ago.
Can the pass defense bounce back?
Georgia ended the season 48th in opponent EPA per play and 80th in EPA per play through the air. That second mark was good for the 40th percentile. While the secondary could be pointed to as the issue, one could make the argument the front seven was the biggest culprit. The Bulldogs totaled just 20 sacks last season, and they regularly struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Smart tried to address the issue by bringing in Auburn transfer Amaris Williams, but he tore his ACL in the spring. A lot of pressure will be on freshman Khamari Brooks to provide a spark for this pass-rush. Georgia should be able to improve on the 20 sacks from last season, but it must be exponentially better if it wants to achieve national success.
Georgia 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 9.5 (-180)
The pricing on Georgia’s win total makes it somewhat difficult to select a best wager. One could lay 180 on the Over 9.5 wins or lay 190 on Under 10.5 wins. Ten wins seems to be the sweet spot for the Bulldogs, but 10 or more should be the likelier outcome.
Georgia does not have to face Texas or Texas A&M this season. Its toughest road trip is to Tuscaloosa, and the team must also go to Ole Miss, the team that ousted them from the CFP a season ago. Five of their conference foes have win totals of 6.5 or less. The non-conference slate of Tennessee State and Western Kentucky lacks a real challenge. Everything is in place for another dominant regular season for Georgia.
KENTUCKY WILDCATS
Mark Stoops was the college football equivalent of your favorite pair of jeans: consistent but unremarkable. In 13 seasons, Stoops won 82 games, four bowls and achieved two double-digit win seasons. However, his record had been getting consistently worse, bottoming out last season with a paltry two wins. So, the powers that be ditched the jeans and started rocking some slick chinos.
Thirty-six year old Will Stein comes in from Oregon with a deep offensive background. He is the opposite of Stoops in almost every way. It also seems that Kentucky is reaching into its pockets a bit more and providing Stein with the financial backing needed to make a jump in the SEC.
Will Kenny Minchey be everything he was expected to be?
There was no bigger signal that Kentucky was entering a new era than when it managed to flip Minchey from his commitment to Nebraska in a single day. In the era of NIL, we can guess how the program managed it. The win was huge. Minchey comes in from Notre Dame after competing with CJ Carr for the starting gig, and by all accounts he legitimately pushed Carr in camp. Minchey is a former four-star prospect who completed 20-of-26 passes for 196 yards while rushing for 84 yards and a touchdown in spot duty for the Irish. He joins Stein, who has a long track record of developing quarterbacks in his time at Oregon. Minchey is very talented, but his match with Stein could be the equivalent of peanut butter and jelly: an elite combination.
Speaking of Stein, is he Him?
Stein made headlines when he told the press at SEC media days that he would be the reason why Kentucky succeeds. The confidence was refreshing, and it begs the question, is the first-time head coach ready for the job? Stein is the second-youngest Power Four coach in the country. He’s a great offensive mind who spent the last three seasons working under Dan Lanning, and he’s had a hand in developing Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore. Stein called plays for an offense that finished no lower than 13th in the country in scoring. How does that all translate to being the head coach at Kentucky? Can he continue to develop signal-callers when he has so many other duties now? Will he be able to lead an efficient offense in the SEC with less talent than what he had in Eugene? If his confidence is any indicator, the answer is yes.
What happens to the defense?
Kentucky had always been steady and consistent under Stoops. With him out the door, and an offensive mind in Stein at the helm, what does that mean for this side of the ball? Jay Bateman comes in to run the defense from Texas A&M. A defensive mind from the tree of Mike Elko should be a positive addition. The Wildcats also retained six starters from last season’s team, including the team leader in tackles (76) and interceptions (4), Ty Bryant. The defensive line is mostly intact, and it adds six more transfers to a group that had a hand in limiting opponents to 3.7 yards per carry. If Bateman can show some Elko-esque qualities as a play-caller, this group should be able to at least mimic the production from 2025.
Kentucky 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 4.5 (-148)
A bet on the Over is a statement of belief in Stein and his offensive prowess. Minchey should thrive learning under him, and Stein brought in a decent amount of talent to supplement the skill positions and give his new QB a good stable of weapons. If Bateman can get this defense to replicate its production from 2025, then the Wildcats have some potential.
The schedule is not overtly daunting for Kentucky. Yes, it gets Texas A&M and Oklahoma on the road. But, it does not face Georgia, Texas or Ole Miss this season. The Wildcats also get to host Alabama, and have plenty of winnable games against mid-tier SEC foes like Vanderbilt, Tennessee, South Carolina and Missouri.
LSU TIGERS
Lane Kiffin had a LeBron James-esque winter in 2025 when dragged out the drama of leaving Ole Miss in the midst of a playoff chase in order to take the job at LSU. While Pete Golding has no ill-will for Kiffin, plenty both in and out of Oxford do. Winning silences all of those voices, and Kiffin did his part in the offseason to win early and often in Baton Rouge.
The Tigers brought in the best transfer class in the country, and brought key staff members in from Ole Miss. Kiffin is an elite coach, but success on the biggest stage has eluded him. He’s got the resources to get it done at LSU. Now, it’s all on him.
Will Sam Leavitt be healthy and effective?
Landing Leavitt in the transfer portal was a win on par with signing Kiffin for LSU. Leavitt — the top-ranked transfer quarterback, according to 247 — burst onto the scene in his time at Arizona State. In 20 games, Leavitt completed 61.3% of his passes, threw 34 touchdowns to nine interceptions and in 2024 led the Sun Devils to the College Football Playoff. However, his season was cut short in 2025 due to a Lisfranc injury, and his recovery from that injury caused him to miss spring practices for LSU. Kiffin told ESPN that he was not concerned about Leavitt’s health, but about his transition into the offense. Leavitt has just the fall camp to get reps in with this offense, which could lead to a slow start for the unit this season. Bettors should also monitor how effective Leavitt will be coming off an injury like this.
Does landing the best transfer class of 2026 pay off?
Kiffin hit the portal hard for his first season at Baton Rouge. He brought in 41 commits in the portal alone, the sixth-most in the country. Outside of Leavitt, two other five-star transfers made it to Baton Rouge: defensive end Princewill Umanmielen and offensive tackle Jordan Seaton. In total, Kiffin added 107 starts from the portal, according to Phil Steele. Kiffin is clearly trying to jumpstart his time with LSU, but will the quick-fix work? Some of the position groups are being almost entirely rebuilt. For example, Kiffin brought in nine wide receiver transfers alone. Five other defensive linemen join Umanmielen in the class. The rankings say that the talent level is elite, but others have been burned by trying to build the plane while it is flying. Kiffin might be good enough to finish the build, though.
Will Blake Baker continue to work his magic with this defense?
Kiffin’s $91 million contract was the big headline in the offseason, but do not ignore the more than $3 million annually that was handed to the defensive coordinator. Baker enters his third season with the program, now under Kiffin. He has been brilliant in his role. When Baker took over, the Tigers were coming off a season in which they had allowed 28 points and 417 yards per game. Last season, LSU allowed only 19.8 points per contest, 3.7 yards per rush and 5.0 yards per play. It finished eighth in adjusted opponent EPA per play. Six starters are back for Baker, and he also gets some elite new toys. Umanmielen totaled 51 pressures and 11 sacks for Ole Miss last year. TJ Dottery — also an Ole Miss transfer — tied for the sixth-most tackles in the SEC last season. Baker has been brilliant since taking up the defensive play-calling, and with some new talent he will likely continue that trend.
LSU 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
The schedule is going to prove to be a challenge for LSU. While it avoids Georgia, the team gets Alabama, Texas and Texas A&M. All three of those teams make the trip to Death Valley, which is beneficial to the Tigers. LSU must also head to Oxford and face Ole Miss, and it gets Clemson at home to open the season. Conference road trips to Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee will not be circle wins either.
Perhaps the most talented transfer class is enough to push Kiffin to the top of the SEC, but a challenging schedule and a quarterback coming off a serious foot injury are cause for pause. Eight wins is a good season, and that seems to be the most likely outcome here.
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
Mississippi State got off to a promising 4-0 SU and ATS start to the season in 2025, but once the Bulldogs made it to SEC play, the wheels came off. Mississippi State ended the season on a 1-7 SU/4-4 ATS slide, losing the last three contests by a combined 61 points.
Head coach Jeff Lebby enters a new era in his tenure at Starkville. Former four-star prospect KaMario Taylor is taking over at quarterback. Eleven starters are back between offense and defense, and Lebby is looking for just his second SEC win as head coach of the program despite entering his third year. It would seem this is a make-or-break season for the offensive minded coach.
What does the KaMario Taylor era look like?
The hype around Taylor has been building for years. It reached a fever pitch at the end of last year. Taylor had appeared in numerous games last season, but got the start in the last two. Against Ole Miss and Wake Forest, he completed 28-of-53 passes for 419 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He dazzled on the ground, adding 264 yards in the starts and three rushing touchdowns. Taylor is a true dual-threat with an explosive running ability. Blake Shapen could run some, but he was nowhere near the athlete Taylor is. Taylor gives this offense a dynamic it did not have last year, which could unlock a lot more for Lebby’s offense.
Can the running game be better this season?
Mississippi State was a largely average rush offense in 2025. It averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and 158 yards per game. With Taylor now taking the reins, bettors should expect this running game to improve, but it’s not just on him. Fluff Bothwell is back after rushing for 677 yards on 4.8 yards per carry. He was especially effective at the beginning of the season. Ten of his 17 explosive runs came in the first five weeks, he averaged 5.9 yards per carry and 3.75 yards per carry after contact. With a deadly athlete like Taylor lining up with him, Bothwell could get back to that explosive style and could be a strong bet to become a 1,000-yard rusher for the Bulldogs.
Can Lebby’s year-to-year improvement finally translate to the SEC?
The Bulldogs improved from two wins in Lebby’s first season to five last year. However, Mississippi State has yet to be anywhere near successful in conference play. Lebby is 1-15 SU in the SEC in his time at the helm. Bettors should know that he is 9-7 ATS in those games, so he is at least beating market expectations. Still, this is about winning football games, and Lebby needs to start doing that in order to keep his job in Starkville. The Bulldogs don’t have Georgia or Texas A&M on the schedule, but they do face Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Texas and Ole Miss. If Lebby can start winning SEC games, he would score some major upsets in the process.
Mississippi State 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 4.5 (-136)
Can Mississippi State win multiple SEC games this season? If it can, then five wins is something that is likely to occur for the Bulldogs. Miss State is a 29.5-point favorite over ULM in Week 1 and should romp Tennessee Tech when they play in November. Can the Bulldogs steal a non-conference road game against Minnesota? Can it beat two of its SEC opponents?
The bet here says Mississippi State can do just that, or some version of it. Taylor truly is an electric threat on the ground. Lebby should be able to craft an offense that leans on that explosiveness at quarterback. The defense needs to be better than the 30.4 points per game it allowed, and Lebby addressed that by bringing back Zach Arnett as defensive coordinator. It’s a low bar, but achievable.
MISSOURI TIGERS
Missouri has quietly become a consistently good football program under head coach Eliah Drinkwitz. The 2025 season snapped a two-year stretch in which the Tigers won double-digit games consecutively. Drinkwitz has built a foundation; now he has to advance further.
If there was a year and a team, one would be hard-pressed to find a team as ready as the 2026 Mizzou Tigers. The team is experienced on offense, with nine starters back. It boasts an insane attack led by a strong transfer quarterback. The Tigers have averaged 30+ points in two of the last three seasons and won two bowl games. There might be more in store this year.
Is this the best rush offense in the country?
It sounds hyperbolic, but it might not be an unfair question. First and foremost, Missouri has arguably the best running back tandem in the country. Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts combined to rush for 2,402 yards and 22 touchdowns last season. Hardy (1,649 yards) is one of the best backs in the country. He forced 97 missed tackles and averaged 4.6 yards per carry after contact last year. Despite suffering a gunshot wound in May, he will be ready to roll for fall camp. The duo will line up behind a strong offensive line in 2026. Left tackle Cayden Green is back, and the Tigers have a total of 118 career starts in the room. Like last season, this will be the backbone of this offense.
Could Austin Simmons be the steal of the transfer portal?
Simmons was named the starting quarterback for Ole Miss last season and started the first two games of the year before being injured. By the time he was available again, Trinidad Chambliss had taken the starting gig. Simmons now gets a new life at Missouri. It’s rare that a starting-caliber quarterback is available, especially one that didn’t necessarily lose the job due to performance. Having said that, Simmons does need to take better care of the football. In 84 dropbacks last season, he threw five interceptions and posted a 5.7% turnover-worthy play rate. He’s going to have a strong running game to lean on. If he can cut down on putting the ball in danger, he might be one of the best pickups of any team in the transfer portal.
Can Eliah Drinkwitz take the next step as a head coach?
It took three seasons, but Drinkwitz has finally transformed Mizzou into a winning football program. Over the last three seasons, the Tigers are 29-10 SU overall and 15-9 SU in the SEC; 25-14 ATS in totality over that span. But what it doesn’t have is an appearance in the SEC Championship or the College Football Playoff. It’s a difficult season to achieve that goal. Texas and Georgia are primed to get to Atlanta, and there are strong contenders on the fringes like Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Not many of them have the potential on offense that a team like Missouri has, though. Perhaps this is the season Drinkwitz gets through the ceiling.
Missouri 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 6.5 (-136)
It is hard to believe that an offense of this caliber is going to win six or fewer games this season. If Simmons shows the qualities that won him the job over Chambliss at Ole Miss and cuts down on the mistakes, this is one of the offenses in the country. The defense is suspect with only three starters back, but the drop from last season can’t be too dramatic.
Mizzou does draw a challenging schedule. It does not face Alabama, but that’s about as good as it gets. The Tigers have road trips to Ole Miss and Georgia. They host Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma. Still, the schedule has opportunities for wins, and if the offense is as good as it looks on paper, it can steal one or two of the contests against the big boys in the conference.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Brent Venables’ time in Norman has been consistently inconsistent. The Sooners have two 10-win seasons under Venables’ watch, and they have two 6-7 seasons as well. Oklahoma will look for consistency in 2026, coming off a year in which they made the College Football Playoff for the fifth time.
Everything lies on the shoulders of John Mateer and this offense. Mateer’s season was derailed with injury. This season, he’s looking to regain some of the magic he had two seasons ago in Pullman and lead the Sooners to their first CFP win in program history.
Is a healthy John Mateer going to be better?
There is a clear line of demarcation for Mateer’s 2025 season. Through the first four games of the season, Mateer completed 67.6% of his passes, averaged 8.5 yards per attempt and had thrown six touchdowns to three interceptions on an average depth of target 8.5 yards downfield. Then, he broke his throwing hand in the win over Auburn. In the following eight games, Mateer completed only 58.8% of his passes, averaged 6.4 yards per attempt and threw eight touchdowns to eight interceptions. Which Mateer shows up in 2026? It would be short-sighted to dismiss the injury to his throwing hand and subsequent decline in play. However, Mateer could have been a better decision-maker. His 16 turnover-worthy plays over those eight games were third-most among SEC quarterbacks. Mateer needs to be healthy, but he needs to be better with the football too.
Can the Sooners run the football?
Mateer was also nowhere near the runner he was in his final season at Washington State. In 2024, he ran for 1,008 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Last year, he managed just 565 yards on only 15 fewer attempts. But his struggles on the ground were hardly the only ones. Oklahoma as a whole averaged only 3.5 yards per carry for the season. Tory Blaylock led the team with 480 yards on 120 attempts. The Sooners ended the year 127th in EPA per play rushing and 128th in success rate. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle — Mateer’s offensive coordinator at Washington State — has to find a way to get his quarterback and this running attack back to being effective. A couple of new offensive linemen will help, but better play-calling will too.
Will the Sooners be as dominant on defense as they were last year?
The short answer is probably. Seven starters are back for Oklahoma on defense. The Sooners’ top two tacklers — Kip Lewis and Owen Heinecke — are among them. Defensive lineman Taylor Wein (7 sacks, 8 tackles for loss) and defensive tackle David Stone lead a defensive line which had a hand in limiting opponents to 2.4 yards per carry last year. In all, Oklahoma allowed just 15.5 points per game and 4.3 yards per play in 2025. The defensive line is experienced, the linebackers remain in good shape with the presence of Heinecke at middle linebacker and the secondary is largely intact. The Sooners were the third-most efficient defense by EPA standards last season and led the country in success rate. With all of the returning production, Venables will have one of the best units in the country again.
Oklahoma 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 7.5 (-148)
If the defense is anywhere close to what it was a season ago — which it looks like it will be — Oklahoma’s win total floor is extremely high. Can the offense pull its weight? Mateer showed up to the Manning Passing Academy looking bulkier, but told the media he didn’t gain weight, but rather got in better shape. Either way, he needs to be better in both facets of his game if this team is to get back to the College Football Playoff.
The schedule provides challenges, like any SEC slate does, but that extends into the non-conference portion as well. The Sooners have road games against Michigan and Georgia. They must host Ole Miss and Texas A&M while also having the usual dalliance with Texas in October. Oklahoma will have to take one, if not two, of those contests to get Over this number, but the team is good enough to do that and more.
OLE MISS REBELS
Narratively, Ole Miss might be the best team to follow in the SEC this season. The Rebels went on a magical run to the College Football Playoff semifinals, and led Miami with three minutes remaining before folding. But now that the excitement of that run has worn off, it’s time to deal with reality.
Pete Golding is a first-time head coach in charge of maintaining what he achieved in the interim last season. Golding had to replace his offensive staff, retool the skill positions and now has a full offseason as the man. He’s got the quarterback, but does he have the ability to be a successful head coach? Or did he benefit from taking Lane Kiffin’s team on a run?
What can Trinidad Chambliss do for an encore?
Chambliss did not get the starting job until an injury to Austin Simmons, but when he got on the field he did not look back. Chambliss ended up as the third-highest graded passer by PFF in the SEC. For the season, he completed 65.6% of his passes, averaged 8.8 yards per attempt and threw 22 touchdowns to just three interceptions. The stark contrast between him and Simmons’ limited time as the starter was protecting the football. Chambliss’ 2.5% turnover-worthy play rate was the third-best among SEC starters. Now, he enters 2026 as the unquestioned starter and a Heisman candidate. Can he replicate the success he had last season with so much change around so much change in the receiver room?
How much will the offense differ after an offseason of change?
Kiffin left before the CFP run for Ole Miss, but the staff members he chose to take stuck around for the postseason last year. Then offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. was massive in helping lead the Rebels’ offense, but he is officially out the door and on to Baton Rouge. In comes John David Baker — the offensive coordinator at East Carolina in 2025 — to replace Weis, and to some extent, Kiffin. Having a new play-caller means new terminology, and an unknown when it comes to play structure and flow. Chambliss will also have a whole new group of receivers this season. Either through the draft, transfer portal or other means, the top four receivers from last year are gone. Kewan Lacy is a massive piece in the backfield, but the other changes could possibly lead to a huge shift in this unit’s efficiency.
Can Pete Golding prove that he can do it on his own?
It all boils down to this. Golding had Weis to call plays for the offense in the postseason last year. He is gone. Golding had to find a new offensive coordinator, help rebuild position groups like wide receiver and is now in charge of all facets of the program. There is no denying the success Ole Miss had under Golding when he stepped in last season, but this is now extremely different. Golding has never been a head coach before, and must now guide a program with national championship aspirations through a massive season in a brutal conference. He is a defensive mind, but his decision at offensive coordinator will loom over the season, especially if the Rebels’ offense struggles out of the gates.
Ole Miss 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 7.5 (+130)
Ole Miss is an experienced group. The Rebels return 16 starters from a team that was just one drive away from making it to the national championship game. But those that don’t return will have a major impact. The architects of one of the better offenses in the country. Key pieces both on the offensive and defensive lines. All of those absences will likely be felt. Then there’s the challenge of the schedule.
The Rebels have road trips to Florida, Texas and Oklahoma. They must also host LSU in an emotionally charged contest in Week 3, as well as Missouri and Georgia. The season even opens with a challenge against a good Louisville squad in Nashville. Honestly, there is some doubt in Golding as the head ball coach. That, coupled with a taxing schedule, could mean a disappointing season in Oxford.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
Intriguing is the word that most closely associates with the South Carolina football program. The Gamecocks have a talented quarterback in LaNorris Sellers. They have a football coach who has shown the ability to get the most out of a roster. But can it all come together in 2026?
Shane Beamer has nine starters back on offense and a new offensive play-caller. The defense needs to be rebuilt to an extent, but that group has been consistent under Beamer. The sixth-year coach has expectations due to his success here, but whether he can meet those with this roster is a big question in a brutal conference.
Is LaNorris Sellers going to revert back to form as a passer?
Sellers was one of the reasons this offense declined in 2025. He went from completing 64.8% of his passes in 2024 to a 59.8% completion percentage. Sellers threw five fewer touchdown passes on just five fewer attempts. Shockingly, his play from a clean pocket declined as well. On the dropbacks in which he was kept clean, Sellers completed only 67.3% of attempts for 9.3 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns and five interceptions. The season prior, his stat line was 71.0% completion, 8.7 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. The decline from Sellers as a passer was stark. He must return to 2024 form if he’s to make good on the hype.
What does the addition of Kendal Briles do for this offense?
Sellers’ decline not only derailed the season for South Carolina, but it also cost Mike Shula his job as offensive coordinator just nine games into the year. In the offseason, Beamer brought in Kendal Briles to fill the void. Briles has a long track record of good offense under his watch, and he has experience in maximizing signal-callers. How he uses Sellers is going to be fascinating. One facet of the quarterback’s game that fell off in 2025 was running the football. He had just 49 designed rush attempts compared to 79 in 2024. But he averaged 4.64 yards per carry after contact, generated 25 runs of 10 or more yards and averaged 5.3 yards per attempt overall, all of which were on par with his previous season. Briles has to fix Sellers as a passer, but he must also utilize his skill set much more efficiently.
How sturdy is the ground on which Shane Beamer walks?
Beamer signed a contract extension of January 2025 after a nine-win season for South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks followed that up with a 4-8 campaign, the second losing season in three years for Beamer. The program has not won a bowl game since his first season as head coach, and an extremely talented quarterback in Sellers has seemingly regressed under his watch. It might sound foolish to sound the alarm on a coach just barely into a contract extension which locks him in through 2030, but crazier things have happened. If South Carolina struggles again, will Beamer’s seat heat to the point that the Gamecocks become a rudderless ship by season’s end?
South Carolina 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 6.5 (-130)
Six wins still gets South Carolina to a bowl game this season, and that seems to be one of the best outcomes for the program this year. The schedule is a bear for the Gamecocks. Road games against Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma and Clemson will be extremely challenging. They host Texas A&M — which will be coming off a bye week — and Georgia. It leaves little margin of error for the team.
What if the regression of Sellers is legitimate? What if Briles cannot help him reclaim the magic from two years ago? Even if he can, how does this offense truly stack up against a slate of opposing defenses which will rank among the best in the country, let alone the SEC? At least a six-win season is an improvement for South Carolina.
TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS
Two years ago, Josh Heupel and the Volunteers were mercilessly bounced by Ohio State in the College Football Playoff. It was clear Tennessee needed to build to get to the level of national contention, but it was a high point in Heupel’s tenure. The program has not experienced any true lows in the Heupel era, and this year is shaping up to be a perfectly adequate season once again.
Tennessee will be one of the better offenses in the SEC, and the country, once again. The question of who will start at quarterback lingers, but this system is extremely user-friendly. Could the Vols surprise some folks and find themselves in the mix for a spot in the SEC title game? Unlikely, but if the true freshman quarterback hits, this could be a sneaky team with higher upside than most expect.
Do the Volunteers finally have a long-term answer at quarterback?
Heupel has had a new starting quarterback Week 1 of each season in his time at Knoxville. This season will be no different, but the hope is that it will be the first of many seasons for quarterback Faizon Brandon. The true freshman was a five-star prospect and third-best member of the 2026 class. In high school, Brandon took care of the football, throwing an interception once in every 98 attempts. It should be noted that Heupel swears up and down that Brandon is locked in a battle with redshirt freshman George McIntyre for the job. But every expectation is that Brandon will be the full-time starter once Tennessee emerges from the game against Fuman in Week 1 — in which both will more than likely see time. A true freshman will likely have some growing pains, but this is about the future of the program.
Can the offense continue its scoring run?
Since Heupel took the job, Tennessee has averaged at least 31.8 points per game in every season. The musical chairs at quarterback each season has not stalled an offensive system that seems to come with a high floor. A true freshman starting at quarterback threatens to derail that streak, but the pieces on offense might be too good for that to happen. Whoever wins the job will line up behind an offensive line that lost just one starter and will be in contention for the Joe Moore Award. Outside of leading receiver Chris Brazzell, three of the top four receivers from last season are back. So too is leading rusher DeSean Bishop. Heupel is an elite play-caller, and he’s got a deep cupboard of talent. This team is more than capable of surpassing 30+ points per game again.
What becomes of the defense?
The defense took some big hits in the offseason. Tennessee’s defensive line must be completely rebuilt after all four starters and three rotation linemen departed in some form or fashion. In the secondary, the Volunteers lost a pair of starters, one of which was an NFL draft selection. Linebacker is a position of strength on paper, with the return of leading tacklers Edwin Spillman and Arion Carter. Plus, they added Amare Campbell from Penn State, the Nittany Lions’ leading tackler in 2025. Jim Knowles was hired as well to lead this unit, so it does have an elite play-caller at the controls. But this is a team with some big questions up front and behind.
Tennessee 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
Heupel has been remarkably consistent in his time as head coach of Tennessee. He’s won at least eight games in four straight years, and the lone season he failed to reach that mark, the Volunteers still went 7-5 in the regular season. The offensive talent this season is immense, so even with the questions at quarterback there seems to be a firm floor.
Tennessee gets some high-probability wins on the schedule in the shape of Furman, Kennesaw State and Arkansas. They get to go to a rebuilding Vanderbilt team in conference play as well. The Vols will need to get some coinflips — at Georgia Tech, home dates against Auburn and Kentucky — to go their way, but they are more than capable. It will be a sweat, but eight wins is in the cards again for Tennessee.
TEXAS LONGHORNS
The hope for Texas this season is that Steve Sarkisian does not have to embark on another campaign in hopes of getting his team into the College Football Playoff. Instead, the Longhorns are hoping to earn a seat at the table the old-fashioned way: by winning football games.
Texas brings back one of the most experienced rosters in the country. Sixteen starters are back from last season, including quarterback Arch Manning. The team’s biggest weakness — offensive line — has been addressed. Two seasons ago, Sarkisian took Quinn Ewers to the CFP and won two games. It would be shocking if he cannot get this Texas team to the dance in 2026.
Does Arch Manning pick up where he left off?
There were many who were disappointed by the season Manning put together, but over the last six games he looked every bit of the blue-chip prospect he was lauded to be. In those contests, Manning threw 14 touchdowns with a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.2%. He averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and added another five touchdowns on the ground. Texas went 5-1 SU/3-2-1 ATS in those games. For the season, Manning was the eighth-best passer in the conference by PFF standards and barely completed 60% of his passes. But if he can pick up on the form he had by season’s end, this offense could be more explosive.
Will the offensive line improve in both facets?
In part, Manning struggled due to the pressure he faced. Manning was pressured on 35.6% of his dropbacks last season. His 165 dropbacks under pressure were the most in the SEC. In the running game, the issues were clear. Texas averaged 4.2 yards per carry and 138 yards per game in 2025. In order to fix the issues, Sarkisian helped his group by hitting the portal, bringing in a few bodies, but right tackle Melvin Siani from Wake Forest was the crown jewel. Couple that with the return of left tackle Trevor Goosby and center Connor Robertson, and this unit should be able to provide better protection for Manning while also giving more push in the run game.
Can the secondary be a bigger strength?
During SEC media days, the Longhorns got a big win when five-star cornerback — and ESPN’s top-ranked 2027 corner — John Meredith III reclassified into the 2026 cycle in order to enroll for the fall. It’s unknown what role he will play, but a talent like that is never a negative, especially for a unit looking for more. Texas was 66th in defensive success rate against the pass last season and 33rd in opponent EPA per play through the air. Jelani McDonald (80 tackles, 3 pass breakups, 3 interceptions) is back at safety, but the defensive backfield lost three starters. Will Muschamp was also hired to run this defense in the offseason. There should be some improvement with this group overall.
Texas 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 9.5 (+120)
Phil Steele ranks Texas’ schedule as the hardest in the country, and there is obviously some truth to that. The Longhorns must face Ohio State in Week 2, Oklahoma on a neutral site and it must go to both LSU and Texas A&M. However, the devil is in the details for the Longhorns.
Texas leaves the state just once from the beginning of the season until November, when it goes to face Missouri. The meeting with the Buckeyes is a revenge spot in Austin. The yearly meeting with Oklahoma is in Dallas. Sure, the three-week stretch of Oklahoma, Florida and Ole Miss is difficult, but the Longhorns have a bye prior to the Red River Shootout, and the other two will be at home. If this is a true national title contender, 10 wins should be an attainable goal. So too should a national championship.
TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Mike Elko has done a tremendous job as a head coach at both Duke and Texas A&M. At College Station, he’s improved the Aggies’ record each year. This season, he has the 13th-most experienced roster in the country. The retention of talent is huge, but so too is the task at hand.
The Aggies have an extremely difficult schedule. They are breaking in a new offensive play-caller. Elko must manage all of that while trying to get Texas A&M to its first SEC championship, and perhaps, its first national title in the modern era.
Can Marcel Reed improve enough as a passer?
In 2025, Reed completed 61.6% of his passes, averaged 8.3 yards per attempt and threw 25 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Those are all solid numbers, but if Texas A&M is going to move forward he has to improve. Reed ranked 12th among SEC passers in PFF passing grade in 2025. He posted the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate (4.7%) and led the conference in total turnover-worthy plays (22). On throws of 10-19 yards downfield, between the numbers, he completed just 50.8% of passes and threw six touchdowns to five interceptions. He committed nine of his 22 turnover-worthy plays on such attempts. Reed has a new play-caller in Holomon Wiggins this season. Will the change help his development, or will it be more of the same?
Can the defense move into the elite stratosphere?
Elko is known as a defensive mastermind, and almost every one of his teams — either as a coordinator or head coach — have been well above average defensively. This season, Elko has eight starters back, so can they become elite? Texas A&M only allowed 21.0 points per game, 4.2 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per play. Those are all marks placing them inside the top 25 of the country statistically, but what will it take to get the Aggies into the top 10? The defensive line lost three players to the NFL, which is obviously a massive blow. Still, there is talent here. Their leading tackler departed, but Elko added First Team All-AAC linebacker Ray Coney. The secondary remains largely intact as well. Elko always maximizes his defensive talent, but he will have to do more than that to get this defense to a national championship level.
Are we sleeping on Texas A&M’s place in the conference and the country?
All of this begs the question, where does Texas A&M truly stack up in both the SEC and national picture? The Aggies are tied with Alabama at DraftKings in odds to win the SEC (+850). They are 20-1 to win the National Championship, behind eight other teams, three of which are in the SEC. Reed is a good quarterback, but has limitations as a passer. The defense is good but not elite, and it needs to retool a defensive line which lost some talent. But what if Reed takes that step forward as a passer? What if Elko turns the corner with this defense and it joins the table of the elite units in college football? In a season that looks to be loaded with parity, maybe the market is sleeping on what Texas A&M can become.
Texas A&M 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-120)
Potential is one thing, but reality is another. The reality is that Reed has not shown true progress in his areas of weakness. The defense is a good unit, but in comparison with some of its contemporaries in the SEC is not one of the elite defenses in the country. That isn’t to say the sum of those parts is a terrible team. The Aggies can be very good, but it will be a challenge to win nine or more games.
Texas A&M has three extremely high-probability wins against Missouri State, Arkansas and the Citadel. After that, they will likely be favored against Arizona State, Kentucky and even South Carolina, the latter of which is on the road, making it more of a challenge than it initially looks. The Aggies will then have to deal with LSU, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas. Of those, they get to host just the Longhorns. It’s a brutal schedule for a team looking to build on an 11-win season and berth in the CFP.
VANDERBILT COMMODORES
Clark Lea has done what he went to his alma mater to do. Vanderbilt is a quality football program under his watch. The Commodores have won 17 games over the last two seasons, and it won its first bowl game since 2013. Lea must now prove he can do it without a superstar quarterback.
The Commodores are staring a regular season with a true freshman starting quarterback in the face. Lea must rebuild the offensive line and navigate a schedule with both opportunity and potential misfortune. He’s done a great job, but decline — even if for just a season — is on the horizon.
What does the post-Diego Pavia era look like?
It’s always hard to replace a starting quarterback. It’s even harder when that quarterback went 17-9 as a starter, led the program to its first ever 10-win season and finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting his final season. But that is exactly what Lea and the Commodore program have to do. Lea told the media that Vanderbilt will have a competition for the starting job, but it seems that five-star freshman Jared Curtis is the likely starter when the Commodores face Austin Peay to open the season. Curtis was the second-best prospect of his class, according to 247. Early projections have him as a potential first-round pick. He is not exactly a dual-threat, but with a past playing history as a running back, Curtis can extend plays and be potentially dangerous as a designed runner. Still, he is a true freshman taking over a program in the SEC. Equally talented signal-callers have struggled with less demanding circumstances in college football.
Can the offense continue to punish opponents on the ground?
Vanderbilt was a very good rush offense in 2025. The Commodores averaged 176 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. Much of that was due to the presence of Pavia, who led the team with 862 yards rushing. But Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young — the next two leading rushers — are back in the fold, giving Lea something to work with. Alexander averaged 5.5 yards per carry and showed some physicality as a runner by averaging 3.43 yards per carry after contact. Young was explosive. He ran for 414 yards on only 47 carries. He averaged 4.21 yards per carry after contact himself. The talent is there, but is the offensive line? Four starters are gone, and they added just one FBS transfer to the position in the portal. This, coupled with Pavia’s absence, likely means a stark drop-off on the ground.
Will the defense do enough to make up for the potentially declining offense?
Vanderbilt was an underrated group on defense in 2025. The Commodores limited opponents to just 3.7 yards per carry and 22.8 points per game. They finished 23rd in opponent EPA per rush and 49th in success rate on the ground. However, the secondary was a weakness. It ranked 129th in EPA per dropback and 111th in success rate. Seven starters are back, and most reside in the front seven. All eyes will be on the secondary this season. Lea added some bodies in the portal — including former four-star prospect Ricardo Jones from Clemson — but there will be quite a bit of internal promotion on the backend. Can the new faces help improve the defense’s weakness? It will be a necessity considering the obvious growing pains on the horizon for the offense.
Vanderbilt 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 5.5 (+110)
This could be an overly pessimistic view on the 2026 Vanderbilt Commodores, but there are just too many potential issues to overlook. A true freshman starting quarterback behind a completely rebuilt offensive line. A secondary which could be one of the worst in the country yet again. Beyond the front seven, which unit do you truly trust for Vanderbilt heading into the regular season?
The schedule opens with opportunities to stack wins against Austin Peay and Delaware, but it immediately steps up when Vandy hosts N.C. State on Sep. 19. They have road games in conference at Auburn, Georgia and Florida. They host Ole Miss, Alabama and Tennessee. Laying a price to get to six wins does not seem like a prudent play for Vanderbilt bettors.
