Air Force Falcons:

It is a rebuilding year for Troy Calhoun, but despite the fewest number of returning starters in the conference, Air Force is expected to compete. The Falcons have won 29 games over the last three seasons, much of that due to Calhoun’s coaching. As long as the fourth-longest tenured coach in the country is in Colorado Springs, Air Force will be a threat in the Mountain West.

Air Force’s option attack will always make it one of the deadliest ground games in the country. Still, with so much departing from last season, it will be hard to replicate the output of a unit which finished 36th in EPA per rush.

 

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Offense

The biggest losses for this unit are along the offensive line. Four starters departed, including three All-Mountain West members. In total, the Falcons lost all seven OL who started a game last season. Offensive line play is massive for any team, but especially for an option attack. The fact this team is rebuilding to this point could hold this unit back in a big way.

Dylan Carson is the most experienced rusher returning for the Falcons. The junior fullback ran for 493 yards on 7.3 yards per attempt in 2023. The program’s top three receivers from last season all return as well. Quarterback figures to be a three-way battle, but only John Busha has any experience. Busha appeared in four games last season and played 54 snaps. He figures to be the leader for the job, but will compete with sophomores Quentin Hayes and Josh Johnson for the gig.

Defense

This is the most experienced unit, but only four starters from last season return. Air Force was a veteran group last season, and it showed in the production. The Falcons finished 20th in opponent EPA per play and they allowed just 4.8 yards per play. This season, some slippage should be expected.

The top six tacklers from last season all departed in the offseason. Interior DL Payton Zdroik returns and he was the fourth-highest graded defender for Air Force last season by PFF. Camby Goff returns from a season-ending injury suffered in Week 1 last season as well, so the Falcons do have top-tier defenders to build around, but it is safe to say Air Force will not be as good as it was on defense last season. However – much like its offense – the Falcons defense tends to outperform expectations. It would not be a shock to see better than expected production this season.

Outlook

The market seems to believe Air Force will be fine despite the complete roster overhaul the program is experiencing. DraftKings has the Falcons as the fourth-most probable Mountain West champion, and their win total is 6.5 shaded to the Over. Air Force does have winnable contests with lesser opponents like Merrimack, San Jose State, Navy, New Mexico and Nevada. But, to surpass this win total the Falcons will need to be perfect in those games while also stealing two of the games against stiffer competition. Perhaps it would be foolish to doubt Calhoun, but the turnover is too great to ignore.

Pick: Under 6.5 Wins

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