Alabama vs. Florida State Odds and Picks
In Week 1 of the college football season, we’ll be treated to a meeting between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida State Seminoles at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. These are two massive brands that struggled last season — with Florida State doing so on a much larger scale — but expectations are higher heading into 2025. That said, this is a game that could end up stealing the show in a loaded Week 1 college football schedule. We’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the week all season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 1 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Alabama vs. Florida State
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida
When: Saturday, August 30th at 3:30 pm ET
Channel: ESPN
Alabama vs. Florida State Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, August 27th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alabama -550, Florida State +410
Spread: Alabama -13.5 (-112), Florida State +13.5 (-108)
Total: Over 50.5 (-105), Under 50.5 (-115)
Alabama vs. Florida State Analysis
There isn’t much love for Florida State heading into 2025. Perhaps that’s deserved after a season in which Mike Norvell’s team went 2-10 and only earned victories over Cal and Charleston Southern. But you might want to throw out everything you saw from the Seminoles last year.
Norvell got rid of his offensive and defensive coordinators, replacing them with a pair of prove commodities in Gus Malzahn and Tony White. Florida State also has 16 transfers that are projected to start this year, according to Phil Steele. Most of those players were contributors at Power Four schools, so this is going to be an entirely different team. And in terms of talent, there isn’t much that separates the Seminoles with some of the best teams in the country. They just need to find a way to gel, and doing so should be possible with this coaching staff.
Playing into Florida State’s hands is the fact that the defense should be a strength this year. The Noles are loaded along the defensive line, brought back some playmakers at linebacker and have some serious young talent in the secondary. Also, White has fielded top-25 defense in each of his last four years on the sidelines — and did so with way less talent than he’ll have in the Sunshine State. Florida State’s defense will also be going to work against an Alabama team that has some question marks under center. Ty Simpson was a highly-touted recruit, but it does seem like he’s a bit more of a game manager than a true playmaker. And going on the road and winning in one of the toughest environments in football could be a tough task in his first game as the leader of this storied program.
Of course, the Seminoles will have to score against a Crimson Tide team that allowed only 4.6 yards per play last year (tied for eighth in the nation) and has eight players with starting experience back. But having a player like Thomas Castellanos at quarterback helps. Castellanos isn’t the perfect quarterback, but he’s an electric runner and loves a big stage. And having a player with his ability to extend plays should neutralize the Alabama pass rush a bit — as should an improved Florida State offensive line. The Seminoles also have some explosive running backs to hit holes on the ground, and I like the talent they brought in at the wide receiver position. I say all of that to say that Malzahn has a lot to work with, and he knows how to attack SEC defenses.
Norvell also happens to be 4-3 against the spread as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points with Florida State, and the Noles won and covered their only time playing as a home ‘dog of 7.5 to 14 under him. And last year, the Tide were only 2-3 both SU and ATS as road favorites. Let’s see if that changes in Year 2 of the Kalen DeBoer era.
For what it’s worth, this game did open with Alabama laying 11.5 at DraftKings, so the Tide have taken significant money — according to our VSiN betting splits. Meanwhile, the Over seems to be the popular move with the total, but the number hasn’t really budged.
It’ll be interesting to see how many points are scored. With Ryan Grubb once again calling plays for DeBoer, the expectation is that this Tide team will take off offensively. While Simpson is unproven, the team is stacked at the skill positions — with 18-year-old wide receiver Ryan Williams being the star of the show. There’s also some potential for Florida State to be rather explosive under Malzahn. But early-season games can be a bit ugly, and both of these teams have a desire to run the ball. They also have talent on defense.
Alabama vs. Florida State Prediction
Our Alabama-Florida State matchup page already reveals some picks from our VSiN analysts and guests, and it seems like there’s a lot of love for the Tide. However, I’m a little lower on Alabama than most heading into the year, as I’m not a big believer in Simpson. I also happen to be extremely high on Florida State. That said, with this game being played at Doak Campbell Stadium, I’d be surprised if the Tide roll here. The Seminoles are loaded with impact players on both sides of the ball, they should be hungry after what happened last season and they have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the sport when they’re playing well. I’m playing Florida State to keep this within two scores, but I’m also putting a little something on an alternate line and the moneyline.
Pick: Florida State +14 (-118 – 1.5 units), Florida State Alt +8.5 (+142 – 0.5 units), Florida State ML (+425 – 0.25 units)
