Alabama vs. Georgia Predictions
On Saturday, September 27th, the two biggest brands in college football will clash, as the Georgia Bulldogs host the Alabama Crimson Tide. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 5 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Alabama vs. Georgia
Where: Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia
When: Saturday, September 27th at 7:30 pm ET
Channel: ABC
Alabama vs. Georgia Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 24th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Georgia -155, Alabama +130
Spread: Georgia -3 (-112), Alabama +3 (-108)
Total: Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)
Alabama vs. Georgia Analysis
Everybody jumped down Kalen DeBoer’s throat after Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1, but the Seminoles look like one of the best teams in college football. Florida State is currently third in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play (+0.46), making that loss look less embarrassing a few weeks later. Losing to a good Florida State team at Doak Campbell Stadium isn’t a reason to sound the alarms. And this definitely looks like a good Florida State team.
Since that loss, Alabama has also done some good things. DeBoer’s group outscored Louisiana Monroe and Wisconsin by a total of 97 points, and Ty Simpson has found his groove in Ryan Grubb’s system. Alabama is into the top-10 in EPA per dropback (0.43) and Simpson is up to 862 passing yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Tide also got Ryan Williams rolling against the Badgers, as he had five catches for 165 yards and two scores. Slowly but surely, the Alabama defense is also starting to look good when looking at advanced stats. The Tide are up to 24th in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play allowed (-0.15), which actually puts them well ahead of the Bulldogs (tied for 74th at -0.01).
Just looking at the metrics, Alabama looks like a better team on both sides of the ball. We just noted the Adjusted EPA per play against, but the Tide also have a slight edge in Adjusted EPA per play (0.24 vs. 0.16).
Of course, Georgia does have a high-profile win over Tennessee on the resume. That’ll lead to a lot of bets on the Dawgs — along with the fact that this game is going to be played in Athens. But don’t forget that the Vols lost that game because of a missed 43-yard field goal. Georgia was lucky to escape with a win.
One thing that should be a big factor in this game is early-down work. Alabama is 15th in the nation in early-down EPA (0.252) on offense, and Georgia is just 93rd in early-down EPA allowed (0.108) on defense. The Tide could have some success running the ball in this one, setting Simpson up for manageable third-down situations. On the other side, Georgia is just 48th in early-down EPA (0.085), and Alabama is 21st in early-down EPA allowed (-0.173). That could mean that Gunner Stockton, who has been unimpressive in his time as the Bulldogs starting quarterback, will need to make some big throws. I’m not sure he can be trusted to do that consistently — at least against these corners.
DeBoer is also 4-1 against the spread as a road underdog in his career. He’s also 2-0 both SU and ATS in games with lines of +3 to -3 with the Tide. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are just 19-34-1 ATS as home favorites under Kirby Smart.
Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction
If you look at our VSiN betting splits page, it’s clear everybody wants a piece of Georgia in this game. Nearly 80% of the tickets have come in on the Dawgs at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, the spread has gone from Georgia -4.5 to Georgia -3, so there’s some sharp reverse line movement favoring Alabama. As somebody that enjoys being on the sharper side, that pleases me. Plus, I generally think the Tide are a better team on both sides of the ball, and I’m almost happy they lost to the Noles in Week 1. We’re getting some great game-by-game prices on Alabama, and I was able to grab the Tide at +725 to win the SEC. I wouldn’t have been able to do the latter without them planting some seeds of doubt.
Bet: Alabama +3 (-110)
