Alabama vs. Michigan:

Normally a game between two major brands like Alabama and Michigan would be for higher stakes than a win in the ReliaQuest Bowl, but the Crimson Tide and Wolverines play in what used to be the Outback Bowl on Tuesday December 31.

Alabama has nobody to blame but themselves after getting pummeled by Oklahoma late in the season to fall out of the College Football Playoff Top 12. Michigan simply lost a ton of talent to the NFL from last year’s championship team, plus head coach Jim Harbaugh to the Chargers. A transitional year was expected. A win over Ohio State was not. Now the Wolverines can put an exclamation point on a huge finish to the season with an upset win here.

 

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ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide (-12.5, 43.5) vs. Michigan Wolverines

How To Watch The ReliaQuest Bowl

When: Tuesday December 31, Noon ET

How: ESPN

Where: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL

Most of the speculation surrounding this bowl was about who would play and who would not. Based on the line activity that we’ve seen, it does seem as though potential first-round pick Jalen Milroe will play. Meanwhile, Michigan will be shorthanded, as Will Johnson and Mason Graham won’t play on the defensive side and Colston Loveland, Myles Hinton, and Donovan Edwards won’t play on offense. That means that the Wolverines will be missing their top corner, best defensive player, top offensive player, top offensive lineman, and second-best running back.

This line was around -11 or -11.5 at open and ticked down as low as 10 with the thought that Milroe might skip the game. But, with him in the lineup and several Michigan opt-outs, this line went back up.

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer got a good look at Michigan last year when he lost to them in the National Championship Game. Obviously the personnel is very different, but not a ton has changed with the scheme because Jesse Minter is still the DC and Sherrone Moore went from OC to HC. 

The Michigan defense has remained a formidable unit, though the absence of Graham is a big deal. He was third on the team in tackles and had 3.5 sacks to also rank third. His numbers weren’t eye-popping, but teams absolutely had to gameplan around him. Johnson had two pick-sixes this season, but missed some time and wasn’t on the field for the win over Ohio State, so the Wolverines are accustomed to playing without him.

The bigger loss on defense from a statistical standpoint is likely Josiah Stewart, who led Michigan with 8.5 sacks. Milroe should have time to throw in this game, as most of the Alabama offensive line is intact. He’ll just have to figure out who to throw to beyond starters Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. Those two did combine for 91 catches for 1,571 yards and 10 touchdowns. Nobody else had more than 19 catches, so Milroe is kind of used to it, but that’s a part of the team that DeBoer will need to recruit heavily.

Initially, my handicap on this game was to look at Michigan with the expectation that Milroe wouldn’t play and the Crimson Tide aren’t interested in playing bowl games like this. They expect to be in the 12-team playoff. However, with most of their top players committed to playing, it does make sense why the line ticked back up.

The active leading receiver for Michigan is Semaj Morgan with 23 catches for 134 yards. Kalel Mullings is just 52 yards short of 1,000 and he’ll likely get there, but there probably won’t be much explosiveness from Davis Warren and the Michigan offense.

Instead, I’ll look at the Under here, expecting a somewhat watered-down Alabama effort coupled with Michigan’s complete lack of production on offense.

Pick: Under 43.5

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