Alabama vs. Missouri Predictions
We’re set for a huge showdown in the SEC on Saturday, October 11, when the Missouri Tigers host the Alabama Crimson Tide at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 7 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Alabama vs. Missouri
Where: Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri
When: Saturday, October 11 at 12:00 pm ET
Channel: ABC
Alabama vs. Missouri Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Thursday, October 9. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alabama -162, Missouri +136
Spread: Alabama -3 (-112), Missouri +3 (-108)
Total: Over 51.5 (-110), Under 51.5 (-110)
Alabama vs. Missouri Analysis
This feels like a brutal spot for Alabama. While the Crimson Tide have never lost to the Tigers — and never beaten them by anything but double digits — it’s almost unfair to expect another win for Kalen DeBoer’s team. Alabama had to go and beat the rival Georgia Bulldogs in Athens two weeks ago, then the team faced a Vanderbilt Commodores team that beat them in 2024. Those were two highly emotional games. A letdown is likely coming at some point in the near future, and it might not even take one for the Tide to lose to the Tigers. Missouri is undefeated, ranked No. 5 in the nation in Net EPA per play (0.42), and playing at home after a bye week.
The best place to start is with the Missouri defense. This team is 17th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.23) and fourth in Pass Defense Success (28.9%). This is a rough matchup for any secondary with the way Ty Simpson is spinning it right now. He has thrown for 1,478 yards with 13 touchdowns and only one pick, and he has lit up the last three opponents he has faced — and all of them have good defenses. But Missouri’s secondary has been great to start this season, and defensive coordinator Corey Batoon has had two weeks to get ready for this vertical passing attack. His defensive backs should be able to hold their own in a bend-don’t-break game plan. And the Tigers, who are tied for 28th in the nation in Havoc (13.9%), should do a decent job of getting bodies in the backfield and making Simpson feel pressure.
On the other side of the ball, Missouri’s running game should get going here. The Tigers are ninth in the nation in Rush EPA per play (0.23), and the Tide are just 63rd in the country in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.04). Alabama is beatable on the ground, so Missouri, with the big boys up front and a good group of rushers, should have a lot of early-down success. Kirby Moore, the Tigers offensive coordinator, has proven to be a clever play caller, too. He should be able to come to this game with some good scripted plays early — especially with the extra week of preparation.
This could also be a game in which Beau Pribula’s legs are a big factor. Not only does Alabama struggle against the run, but the team has had issues with mobile quarterbacks over the last few years. Well, Pribula’s legs are a big strength. He has had two games with at least 65 rushing yards this season, and he could be in line for another productive day on the ground. If he is, that’ll open up some more opportunities for him to make plays with his arm.
DeBoer is also just 2-4 both straight-up and against the spread as a road favorite since arriving in Tuscaloosa. Meanwhile, Eli Drinkwitz is 7-4 both SU and ATS off a bye week with Missouri. The Tigers are also 6-1 both SU and ATS as home underdogs of 7 or fewer under Drinkwitz. They absolutely love these spots.
Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction
With Missouri being fresher and more prepared than Alabama, how can you not like the Tigers to keep this within a field goal — and possibly win outright? This is going to be the biggest game of the Drinkwitz era, and the schedule set the Tigers up very nicely. I expect them to take advantage in one of the loudest environments of this entire college football season.
Bet: Missouri +3.5 (-115) & Missouri ML (+140 – 0.5 units)
