Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners:
In the 8 vs. 9 matchup of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff, the Oklahoma Sooners host the Alabama Crimson Tide in Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma. The winner of this game will take on the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl. Keep reading for thoughts on how this game might play out.
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College Football Playoff: Alabama Crimson Tide (-1.5, 40.5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Friday, December 19th, 8:00 pm ET
Does Alabama deserve to be in the College Football Playoff? While that debate isn’t as hot as Miami versus Notre Dame, some people did argue the Crimson Tide weren’t worthy of a spot — especially after a 28-7 thrashing at the hands of Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. However, Alabama had only two losses during the regular season, plus Kalen DeBoer’s team earned impressive wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. Also, the Crimson Tide had CFB Graphs’ eighth-highest EPA margin (+0.351) on the season, so the team’s advanced stats profile definitely stacked up well compared to the rest of the nation’s top teams.
What makes this game very interesting is that Oklahoma was one of the teams that dealt Alabama a loss. The Sooners also did so in Tuscaloosa, and they did it in a game in which their offense really didn’t show up. John Mateer, one of the nation’s most electric dual-threat quarterbacks, threw for 138 yards and rushed for only 23. Oklahoma also rushed for a total of 74 yards as a team. Nothing about the box score would suggest the Sooners should have won that game, but the Tide coughed the ball up three times. That ended up doing them in. Now, Alabama will be hoping to play a much cleaner game, though the team will need to do so in one of the most difficult environments in sports.
There will probably be some bettors that look to simply back the Sooners at home, thinking they must be the better team if they beat the Tide on the road. However, that couldn’t be further from the truth. The way that game played out actually did more to suggest that Alabama was the better team. DeBoer’s group just didn’t execute when things mattered most. Well, with some extra time to prepare, it’s hard not to like the Tide to figure things out.
The big thing to watch here is the Oklahoma offense versus the Alabama defense. For as good as Mateer has looked at times, the Sooners are just 47th in the nation in EPA per play (0.054). That’s going to be the worst unit on the field, by far. And there’s a real chance Alabama comes out and really stifles this team. Oklahoma gets next to nothing on the ground, putting a lot on Mateer as a thrower. Well, Mateer struggled to move the ball through the air against this secondary in the first meeting. Things might look better with him now playing in more comfortable surroundings, but the Tide can still get pressure on him and they have a good group of defensive backs to blanket the Sooners wideouts.
Alabama is also 12th in the nation in EPA per play (0.176) on offense, so it’s hard to imagine the Oklahoma defense keeping Ty Simpson and Co. down for too long. I know the Sooners have a top-five EPA per play defense (-0.269) in the country, but great offenses tend to win out against great defenses. And that feels even more likely to happen with Ryan Grubb being one of the best play-callers in the country — and having extra time to look at the film and put together a script.
DeBoer has also been a good bet as a road favorite throughout his career, going 8-2 straight-up when laying points on the road. He’s also 5-0 SU and 4-1 against the spread with Alabama when coming off an upset loss. That says a lot about his mental fortitude, as losing a game with the Tide means having your job security questioned. It should also be pointed out that the Sooners are 0-2 SU and ATS when playing as home underdogs of 7 or fewer points under Brent Venables.
Pick: Alabama ML (-108 – 2 units)
For all of our bowl season college football insights, refer to our College Football Bowl Games Hub.
