Effective College Football Play-by-Play Ratings for Week 6:
My Effective Play-by-Play Ratings articles for college football have drawn some feedback from readers over the last two weeks. One of the questions I got last week was why I didn’t just share all of the game ratings instead of just the top 15.
The reader reasoned that with the ratings having such disparity, wouldn’t some of this be worked into the number already? He surmised that some of the games with lesser, and perhaps less “public,” edges would be where the real value was. I agree to some extent, particularly with the high-profile games.
Unfortunately, after the top 15 games went 12-3 ATS two weeks ago, I contemplated putting all of the game ratings in last week. Regretfully I didn’t. The top 15 last week went 5-9-1 ATS, but the next 20 games were 13-7 ATS.
Thus, for “experimental purposes,” I have decided to share the updated Effective Play-by-Play Ratings disparities for all 58 FBS vs. FBS games for this week. Here they are, listed in order of Rating Line variance from the Actual Line. Know that I will be playing some — not all — of these games and will explain which ones in my Best Bets column on Wednesday.
1. (411) SAN DIEGO STATE at (412) OREGON STATE
Actual Line: OREGON STATE -14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON STATE -36.4
Difference: 21.9, FAVORS – OREGON STATE
2. (391) UCLA at (392) OREGON
Actual Line: OREGON -11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON +9.5
Difference: 21, FAVORS – UCLA
3. (335) BUFFALO at (336) TOLEDO
Actual Line: TOLEDO -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TOLEDO -41.1
Difference: 20.6, FAVORS – TOLEDO
4. (381) TEXAS A&M at (382) MISSOURI
Actual Line: MISSOURI -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MISSOURI -20.9
Difference: 17.4, FAVORS – MISSOURI
5. (355) WAKE FOREST at (356) NC STATE
Actual Line: NC STATE +4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NC STATE +17
Difference: 13, FAVORS – WAKE FOREST
6. (317) FLORIDA STATE at (318) LOUISVILLE
Actual Line: LOUISVILLE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISVILLE -15.9
Difference: 12.4, FAVORS – LOUISVILLE
7. (313) SOUTH ALABAMA at (314) ARKANSAS STATE
Actual Line: ARKANSAS STATE -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS STATE -13.5
Difference: 12, FAVORS – ARKANSAS STATE
8. (415) AIR FORCE at (416) NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Actual Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS -4.5
Difference: 12, FAVORS – NORTHERN ILLINOIS
9. (333) ILLINOIS at (334) MICHIGAN STATE
Actual Line: MICHIGAN STATE +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN STATE +14.1
Difference: 11.6, FAVORS – ILLINOIS
10. (311) MISSOURI STATE at (312) WESTERN KENTUCKY
Actual Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY +8.6
Difference: 11.1, FAVORS – MISSOURI STATE
11. (337) TULANE at (338) ARMY
Actual Line: ARMY -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARMY +7.3
Difference: 10.3, FAVORS – TULANE
12. (323) WASHINGTON STATE at (324) UTAH STATE
Actual Line: UTAH STATE -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH STATE -15.4
Difference: 9.9, FAVORS – UTAH STATE
13. (309) SAM HOUSTON STATE at (310) LIBERTY
Actual Line: LIBERTY -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LIBERTY -4.1
Difference: 9.4, FAVORS – SAM HOUSTON STATE
14. (351) ARIZONA at (352) WEST VIRGINIA
Actual Line: WEST VIRGINIA +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WEST VIRGINIA +11.8
Difference: 8.8, FAVORS – ARIZONA
15. (361) OLD DOMINION at (362) APPALACHIAN STATE
Actual Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -18.3
Difference: 8.8, FAVORS – APPALACHIAN STATE
16. (379) BALL STATE at (380) NORTHWESTERN
Actual Line: NORTHWESTERN -36.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTHWESTERN -45.1
Difference: 8.6, FAVORS – NORTHWESTERN
17. (383) UAB at (384) MEMPHIS
Actual Line: MEMPHIS -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MEMPHIS -22.5
Difference: 8.5, FAVORS – MEMPHIS
18. (353) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (354) AKRON
Actual Line: AKRON +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AKRON -1.2
Difference: 8.2, FAVORS – AKRON
19. (319) IOWA at (320) WASHINGTON
Actual Line: WASHINGTON -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON +5.1
Difference: 8.1, FAVORS – IOWA
20. (357) SYRACUSE at (358) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA -2.3
Difference: 7.2, FAVORS – SYRACUSE
21. (389) HAWAII at (390) ARIZONA STATE
Actual Line: ARIZONA STATE -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA STATE -27.7
Difference: 7.2, FAVORS – ARIZONA STATE
22. (417) BOISE STATE at (418) FRESNO STATE
Actual Line: FRESNO STATE +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FRESNO STATE -0.7
Difference: 7.2, FAVORS – FRESNO STATE
23. (349) LSU at (350) KENTUCKY
Actual Line: KENTUCKY +8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KENTUCKY +1.6
Difference: 6.9, FAVORS – KENTUCKY
24. (401) TULSA at (402) NAVY
Actual Line: NAVY -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NAVY -9.2
Difference: 6.7, FAVORS – NAVY
25. (341) NORTH CAROLINA at (342) PITTSBURGH
Actual Line: PITTSBURGH -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH +2.9
Difference: 6.4, FAVORS – NORTH CAROLINA
26. (321) WYOMING at (322) SAN JOSE STATE
Actual Line: SAN JOSE STATE -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN JOSE STATE -11.6
Difference: 5.6, FAVORS – SAN JOSE STATE
27. (371) MIAMI OHIO at (372) MASSACHUSETTS
Actual Line: MASSACHUSETTS +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MASSACHUSETTS -3.1
Difference: 5.6, FAVORS – MASSACHUSETTS
28. (347) COASTAL CAROLINA at (348) MARSHALL
Actual Line: MARSHALL -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARSHALL +2.5
Difference: 5.5, FAVORS – COASTAL CAROLINA
29. (315) SOUTH FLORIDA at (316) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
Actual Line: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO -11.9
Difference: 4.9, FAVORS – TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
30. (393) VIRGINIA TECH at (394) CALIFORNIA
Actual Line: CALIFORNIA +9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CALIFORNIA +4.6
Difference: 4.9, FAVORS – CALIFORNIA
31. (413) NORTH DAKOTA STATE at (414) UNLV
Actual Line: UNLV +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UNLV -1.9
Difference: 4.9, FAVORS – UNLV
32. (301) SOUTHERN MISS at (302) TROY
Actual Line: TROY -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TROY -5.2
Difference: 4.8, FAVORS – SOUTHERN MISS
33. (395) TEXAS at (396) OKLAHOMA
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA +8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA +4.1
Difference: 4.4, FAVORS – OKLAHOMA
34. (409) STANFORD at (410) NOTRE DAME
Actual Line: NOTRE DAME -38.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NOTRE DAME -34.2
Difference: 4.3, FAVORS – STANFORD
35. (303) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (304) KENNESAW STATE
Actual Line: KENNESAW STATE +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KENNESAW STATE +7.1
Difference: 4.1, FAVORS – JACKSONVILLE STATE
36. (329) SOUTH CAROLINA at (330) FLORIDA
Actual Line: FLORIDA -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA -8.5
Difference: 4, FAVORS – SOUTH CAROLINA
37. (367) MINNESOTA at (368) PURDUE
Actual Line: PURDUE +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PURDUE -1.4
Difference: 3.9, FAVORS – PURDUE
38. (405) CHARLOTTE at (406) NORTH TEXAS
Actual Line: NORTH TEXAS -28.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH TEXAS -25
Difference: 3.5, FAVORS – CHARLOTTE
39. (373) JAMES MADISON at (374) GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Actual Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN +4.4
Difference: 3.1, FAVORS – GEORGIA SOUTHERN
40. (327) INDIANA at (328) NEBRASKA
Actual Line: NEBRASKA +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEBRASKA +10.4
Difference: 2.9, FAVORS – INDIANA
41. (377) LOUISIANA at (378) LOUISIANA TECH
Actual Line: LOUISIANA TECH -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA TECH -5.7
Difference: 2.7, FAVORS – LOUISIANA TECH
42. (343) USC at (344) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PENN STATE -4
Difference: 2.5, FAVORS – PENN STATE
43. (399) TENNESSEE at (400) ARKANSAS
Actual Line: ARKANSAS +13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS +11.1
Difference: 2.4, FAVORS – ARKANSAS
44. (305) NEW MEXICO STATE at (306) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Actual Line: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -8.8
Difference: 2.3, FAVORS – FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
45. (359) CONNECTICUT at (360) TEMPLE
Actual Line: TEMPLE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEMPLE -5.7
Difference: 2.2, FAVORS – TEMPLE
46. (365) DUKE at (366) GEORGIA TECH
Actual Line: GEORGIA TECH +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA TECH +9.1
Difference: 2.1, FAVORS – DUKE
47. (325) IOWA STATE at (326) BYU
Actual Line: BYU -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BYU -12.4
Difference: 1.9, FAVORS – BYU
48. (331) SACRAMENTO STATE at (332) BOWLING GREEN
Actual Line: BOWLING GREEN -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOWLING GREEN -5.8
Difference: 1.7, FAVORS – SACRAMENTO STATE
49. (407) HOUSTON at (408) KANSAS STATE
Actual Line: KANSAS STATE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS STATE -0.9
Difference: 1.6, FAVORS – HOUSTON
50. (363) KENT STATE at (364) WESTERN MICHIGAN
Actual Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN -14.9
Difference: 1.4, FAVORS – WESTERN MICHIGAN
51. (385) NEVADA at (386) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP +9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTEP +10.8
Difference: 1.3, FAVORS – NEVADA
52. (387) KANSAS at (388) UTAH
Actual Line: UTAH -15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH -16.7
Difference: 1.2, FAVORS – UTAH
53. (375) UCF at (376) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA STATE -8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE -7.5
Difference: 1, FAVORS – UCF
54. (339) MARYLAND at (340) OHIO STATE
Actual Line: OHIO STATE -34.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OHIO STATE -33.7
Difference: 0.8, FAVORS – MARYLAND
55. (397) OLE MISS at (398) VANDERBILT
Actual Line: VANDERBILT +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VANDERBILT +10.8
Difference: 0.8, FAVORS – OLE MISS
56. (345) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (346) OHIO U
Actual Line: OHIO U -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OHIO U -2.3
Difference: 0.7, FAVORS – CENTRAL MICHIGAN
57. (369) RICE at (370) EAST CAROLINA
Actual Line: EAST CAROLINA -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: EAST CAROLINA -10.7
Difference: 0.7, FAVORS – EAST CAROLINA
58. (403) GEORGIA at (404) ALABAMA
Actual Line: ALABAMA -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ALABAMA -1.8
Difference: 0.3, FAVORS – ALABAMA
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