Effective College Football Play-by-Play Ratings for Week 7:
In last week’s Effective Play-by-Play Ratings article, I published the full list of games for the first time. Those metrics went 33-25 ATS (56.9%) against their closing numbers, so I’m going to share all 59 games for Week 7 below.
First, I want to address a question I received from a VSiN Pro subscriber who asked me to explain the difference between these Effective Play-by-Play metrics and the Effective Strength Ratings that are published on VSiN.com under the CFB Matchup Ratings link. In short, these calculations are based purely on yards-per-play numbers gauged against each team’s games played thus far. Some people prefer this method over power rating/scoring tabulations because the latter can easily be affected by fluky plays, turnovers, or fourth-down conversions, etc. Both have their value. Perhaps a combination of the various strength gauges is the best alternative. Personally, I think the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings, because of the much larger data sample size, perhaps more accurately portray team strength, particularly in college football, where there can be huge disparities in talent from team to team. Note that all of the strength ratings I am describing are weighted against team schedules and reflect games in which latter parts were non-competitive. They also contain pertinent injury adjustments.
Thank you as well to the readers who pointed out how these ratings did far better than my Best Bets column last week. Yes, I was horrible last week. I am not immune from the mistakes and biases that have plagued sports gamblers since the beginning of the hobby. Hopefully the numbers and data I publish are worth as much or more to you than my opinions. Good luck this week.
1. (159) MASSACHUSETTS at (160) BUFFALO
Actual Line: BUFFALO -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BUFFALO +15.1
Difference: 21.6, Favors – MASSACHUSETTS
2. (213) WASHINGTON STATE at (214) OREGON STATE
Actual Line: OREGON STATE -17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON STATE -35.3
Difference: 17.8, Favors – OREGON STATE
3. (137) TOLEDO at (138) EASTERN MICHIGAN
Actual Line: EASTERN MICHIGAN +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: EASTERN MICHIGAN +24
Difference: 17.5, Favors – TOLEDO
4. (183) WAKE FOREST at (184) CALIFORNIA
Actual Line: CALIFORNIA +9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CALIFORNIA +25.3
Difference: 15.8, Favors – WAKE FOREST
5. (193) KENTUCKY at (194) OKLAHOMA
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA +7.4
Difference: 14.4, Favors – KENTUCKY
6. (107) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (108) SAM HOUSTON STATE
Actual Line: SAM HOUSTON STATE +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAM HOUSTON STATE -12.6
Difference: 14.1, Favors – SAM HOUSTON STATE
7. (129) NORTHWESTERN at (130) MICHIGAN STATE
Actual Line: MICHIGAN STATE +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN STATE +21.4
Difference: 13.9, Favors – NORTHWESTERN
8. (175) ARIZONA STATE at (176) TEXAS TECH
Actual Line: TEXAS TECH -14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS TECH -1
Difference: 13.5, Favors – ARIZONA STATE
9. (115) COLORADO STATE at (116) TEXAS STATE
Actual Line: TEXAS STATE -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS STATE -26.7
Difference: 12.7, Favors – TEXAS STATE
10. (101) DELAWARE at (102) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
Actual Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +14
Difference: 12.5, Favors – DELAWARE
11. (203) VIRGINIA at (204) SMU
Actual Line: SMU -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SMU -20.8
Difference: 11.3, Favors – SMU
12. (205) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (206) LSU
Actual Line: LSU -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LSU -2.9
Difference: 11.1, Favors – MISSISSIPPI STATE
13. (125) LOUISVILLE at (126) SYRACUSE
Actual Line: SYRACUSE +14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SYRACUSE +25.2
Difference: 10.7, Favors – LOUISVILLE
14. (153) NORTH CAROLINA at (154) DUKE
Actual Line: DUKE -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: DUKE +7
Difference: 10, Favors – NORTH CAROLINA
15. (165) CINCINNATI at (166) WEST VIRGINIA
Actual Line: WEST VIRGINIA -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WEST VIRGINIA +8
Difference: 9.5, Favors – CINCINNATI
16. (211) UNLV at (212) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +10.8
Difference: 9.3, Favors – UNLV
17. (131) RUTGERS at (132) MARYLAND
Actual Line: MARYLAND -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARYLAND -15.1
Difference: 9.1, Favors – MARYLAND
18. (199) KANSAS at (200) KANSAS STATE
Actual Line: KANSAS STATE -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS STATE +4.6
Difference: 9.1, Favors – KANSAS
19. (111) GEORGIA SOUTHERN at (112) OLD DOMINION
Actual Line: OLD DOMINION +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION +12.3
Difference: 8.8, Favors – GEORGIA SOUTHERN
20. (121) APPALACHIAN STATE at (122) COASTAL CAROLINA
Actual Line: COASTAL CAROLINA +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: COASTAL CAROLINA +10
Difference: 8.5, Favors – APPALACHIAN STATE
21. (179) NOTRE DAME at (180) BYU
Actual Line: BYU +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BYU +1.8
Difference: 8.2, Favors – BYU
22. (207) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (208) WYOMING
Actual Line: WYOMING -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WYOMING +0.5
Difference: 8, Favors – NORTHERN ILLINOIS
23. (157) GEORGIA STATE at (158) JAMES MADISON
Actual Line: JAMES MADISON -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JAMES MADISON -4.7
Difference: 7.8, Favors – GEORGIA STATE
24. (209) TULSA at (210) RICE
Actual Line: RICE +4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: RICE -3.6
Difference: 7.6, Favors – RICE
25. (217) NEVADA at (218) NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Actual Line: NORTH DAKOTA STATE -15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH DAKOTA STATE -8.3
Difference: 7.2, Favors – NEVADA
26. (169) TCU at (170) BAYLOR
Actual Line: BAYLOR -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BAYLOR +1.1
Difference: 7.1, Favors – TCU
27. (133) GEORGIA TECH at (134) VIRGINIA TECH
Actual Line: VIRGINIA TECH -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA TECH -2.9
Difference: 7.1, Favors – GEORGIA TECH
28. (149) PITTSBURGH at (150) BOSTON COLLEGE
Actual Line: BOSTON COLLEGE +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOSTON COLLEGE -0.2
Difference: 6.7, Favors – BOSTON COLLEGE
29. (163) TROY at (164) LOUISIANA
Actual Line: LOUISIANA -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA -10.8
Difference: 6.3, Favors – LOUISIANA
30. (141) FLORIDA STATE at (142) MIAMI FL
Actual Line: MIAMI FL -21
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIAMI FL -27.1
Difference: 6.1, Favors – MIAMI FL
31. (189) ALABAMA at (190) TENNESSEE
Actual Line: TENNESSEE +8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TENNESSEE +14.5
Difference: 6, Favors – ALABAMA
32. (139) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (140) ARMY
Actual Line: ARMY -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARMY -8.4
Difference: 5.9, Favors – ARMY
33. (155) KENT STATE at (156) SOUTH FLORIDA
Actual Line: SOUTH FLORIDA -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH FLORIDA -14.7
Difference: 5.8, Favors – KENT STATE
34. (119) WASHINGTON at (120) PURDUE
Actual Line: PURDUE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PURDUE -8.8
Difference: 5.3, Favors – PURDUE
35. (167) ARKANSAS STATE at (168) SOUTHERN MISS
Actual Line: SOUTHERN MISS +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTHERN MISS +2
Difference: 5, Favors – SOUTHERN MISS
36. (123) CHARLOTTE at (124) TEMPLE
Actual Line: TEMPLE -21.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEMPLE -17.1
Difference: 4.4, Favors – CHARLOTTE
37. (195) ARKANSAS at (196) VANDERBILT
Actual Line: VANDERBILT -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VANDERBILT -10.4
Difference: 4.4, Favors – VANDERBILT
38. (135) BALL STATE at (136) BOWLING GREEN
Actual Line: BOWLING GREEN -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOWLING GREEN -2.2
Difference: 4.3, Favors – BALL STATE
39. (151) OKLAHOMA STATE at (152) HOUSTON
Actual Line: HOUSTON -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: HOUSTON -0.4
Difference: 4.1, Favors – OKLAHOMA STATE
40. (219) FRESNO STATE at (220) SAN DIEGO STATE
Actual Line: SAN DIEGO STATE +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN DIEGO STATE +11.2
Difference: 3.7, Favors – FRESNO STATE
41. (113) EAST CAROLINA at (114) UAB
Actual Line: UAB +4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UAB +8.1
Difference: 3.6, Favors – EAST CAROLINA
42. (173) FLORIDA at (174) TEXAS
Actual Line: TEXAS -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS -7.1
Difference: 3.4, Favors – FLORIDA
43. (185) WISCONSIN at (186) UCLA
Actual Line: UCLA -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UCLA -5.9
Difference: 3.4, Favors – UCLA
44. (191) AUBURN at (192) GEORGIA
Actual Line: GEORGIA -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA -23.7
Difference: 3.2, Favors – GEORGIA
45. (197) MISSOURI at (198) OLE MISS
Actual Line: OLE MISS -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLE MISS -2.8
Difference: 3.2, Favors – MISSOURI
46. (127) OHIO STATE at (128) INDIANA
Actual Line: INDIANA +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: INDIANA +0.3
Difference: 3.2, Favors – INDIANA
47. (143) AKRON at (144) MIAMI OHIO
Actual Line: MIAMI OHIO -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIAMI OHIO -12.4
Difference: 2.9, Favors – MIAMI OHIO
48. (181) SAN JOSE STATE at (182) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTEP +10.3
Difference: 2.8, Favors – SAN JOSE STATE
49. (177) UTAH at (178) COLORADO
Actual Line: COLORADO +15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: COLORADO +12.8
Difference: 2.7, Favors – COLORADO
50. (171) LOUISIANA TECH at (172) LOUISIANA-MONROE
Actual Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE +15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE +18
Difference: 2.5, Favors – LOUISIANA TECH
51. (105) KENNESAW STATE at (106) MISSOURI STATE
Actual Line: MISSOURI STATE +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MISSOURI STATE +0.5
Difference: 2.5, Favors – MISSOURI STATE
52. (147) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (148) CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Actual Line: CENTRAL MICHIGAN +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CENTRAL MICHIGAN +4.1
Difference: 2.4, Favors – CENTRAL MICHIGAN
53. (161) NAVY at (162) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
Actual Line: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO -8.9
Difference: 2.4, Favors – TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
54. (215) NEW MEXICO at (216) HAWAII
Actual Line: HAWAII +14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: HAWAII +13
Difference: 1.5, Favors – HAWAII
55. (117) MEMPHIS at (118) TULANE
Actual Line: TULANE +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TULANE +5.8
Difference: 1.2, Favors – TULANE
56. (145) PENN STATE at (146) MICHIGAN
Actual Line: MICHIGAN -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN -5.6
Difference: 0.9, Favors – PENN STATE
57. (187) NEBRASKA at (188) OREGON
Actual Line: OREGON -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON -7
Difference: 0.5, Favors – NEBRASKA
58. (201) OHIO U at (202) SACRAMENTO STATE
Actual Line: SACRAMENTO STATE +15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SACRAMENTO STATE +15.3
Difference: 0.2, Favors – SACRAMENTO STATE
59. (103) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at (104) JACKSONVILLE STATE
Actual Line: JACKSONVILLE STATE -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JACKSONVILLE STATE -3
Difference: 0, Favors – NONE
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