The College Football Playoff rankings came out earlier this week. I found it interesting to compare these rankings with the AP Top 25 and my own personal power ratings.
Here are the top 10 (in order) on each list:
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College Football Playoff: Tennessee, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Michigan, Alabama, TCU, Oregon, USC, LSU
AP Top 25: Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, Alabama, TCU, Oregon, USC, UCLA
My personal power ratings: Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Michigan, Clemson … now these next four are kind of jumbled; you can almost put them in any order … Utah, Oregon, Texas, USC. I was surprised to see Texas so high on my list, but that’s where my grading system has them.
This really is a good looking card this week. Here are some of the key games, in official Nevada rotation order.
No. 17 North Carolina (-7, 60.5) at Virginia
We opened Carolina -9.5. They took the 9.5, they took the 9, I mean they walked me all the way down, 9.5, 9, 8.5, 8, and they took 7.5 too, so now I’m down to 7 on the game. Action on Virginia all the way down the ladder. Nothing on the total.
No. 20 Wake Forest (-4, 54) at No. 21 North Carolina State
We opened Wake Forest -4.5. They took 4.5 and we’re down to 4 but they’re even taking the 4, just not enough yet to get me to 3.5. No action on the total whatsoever.
Florida State (-7.5, 53) at Miami
We opened Florida State -8.5. They took 8.5, they took 8. They’re taking the 7.5 but again, like the game prior, not enough to get me to 7, but it is definitely dog money coming in on this one. Nothing at all on the total.
Iowa at Purdue (-3.5, 38.5)
We opened Purdue -5. They took the 5, took 4.5, took the 4, and we’re down to 3.5. Another case of both the wise guys and the public walking me all the way down here. We opened the total 41. They bet me Under and I went to 40. They bet me Under that and I went all the way to 38.5. There are still 39s out there but I went to 38.5 for now.
No. 22 Syracuse at Pittsburgh (-3.5, 48)
We opened Pittsburgh -3.5. The public seems to be on Syracuse plus the 3.5 but we’ve never moved the number. There are some 4s out there but I don’t have enough Pitt business to go to 4. Nothing on the total.
No. 18 Oklahoma State at Kansas (-1, 63.5)
Here’s an interesting one. We opened Oklahoma State -3.5. They took the 3.5, they took 3. I went to 2 after that and they took the 2, so I went to 1. Now I’m hearing that there may be an issue with Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders and that Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels might be back this week. So now I’m at Kansas -1. All the money is definitely on Kansas in this one.
Texas (-2.5, 54.5) at No. 13 Kansas State
We opened Texas -2. They laid me the 2 and we’re at 2.5 right now. They’re still laying me the 2.5, both recreational and sharp players, but I have some Kansas State money too. I actually think this is a really good game that is a little bit under the radar. Nothing on the total.
Kentucky at Missouri (Pick’em, 40.5)
We opened Kentucky -2. They took 2, they took 1.5. After they took the 1.5, I went straight to Pick and that’s where I’m at right now. I still see Kentucky -1 out there but I’m at Pick because one of the guys who bet me at +1.5 is a pretty sharp player. They also played me Missouri on the moneyline. They took +110 and +105, so that is another reason I’m at Pick.
Florida at Texas A&M (-3, 55.5)
We opened A&M -3. They laid me the 3 and I went to 3.5. They took the 3.5 and I am back to 3 with the game. We opened the total 54, they bet me and I went all the way to 55.5 on one bet.
No. 2 Tennessee at No. 1 Georgia (-8, 66.5)
We opened Georgia -8 and we haven’t moved it. The ticket count is about 2 to 1 in favor of Tennessee. It seems like the sharper players are on the favorite in this one but I’m not so sure. I think the back door is going to be wide open here. Gun to my head, I think I would play the dog. I opened the total 66, they bet me Over and I went to 66.5. They’re still betting me Over. I do see a 67 out there but we’re still at 66.5.
Texas Tech at No. 7 TCU (-8.5, 69)
This is another good game. We opened TCU -9.5. They took the 9.5, took the 9, and I’m now at 8.5. Ticket count is way in favor of TCU, about 6 to 1 I would say, but the sharp money is definitely on the dog. Nothing on this total.
No. 25 Central Florida (-3.5, 58.5) at Memphis
Another good one. We opened UCF -3.5 and we’re getting played on the dog but not enough to move it yet. This is another one where there is some sharp money on the underdog but the ticket count is highly in favor of Central Florida — about 4 to 1. No action on the total.
No. 6 Alabama (-13, 56.5) at No. 15 LSU
Geez, yet another good one. There are some really good games this week. We opened 13, haven’t moved it. A lot of business both ways. No sharp money yet. I think they’re waiting. I do see 12.5 in the market and 13.5 but I’m at 13. When they bet me, I’ll move it but until then, good two-way action, good ticket count.
No. 5 Clemson (-4, 44) at Notre Dame
We opened Clemson -3.5. They laid me the 3.5 and we went to 4. We’re getting good two-way business at the 4. I see it lower in some spots but we’re still getting good two-way action, plenty of +4 and plenty of -4, so 4 looks like a good number for me right now. We opened the total 44 and haven’t moved it yet. Good action both ways.
Chris Andrews is the sportsbook director at South Point in Las Vegas. He has been a Nevada bookmaker for over 40 years and is a member of the Sports Betting Hall of Fame.
