Week 11 College Football: App State vs. Coastal Carolina

After two days worth of MACtion, we get treated to a couple different Group of Five conferences. Week 11 rolls on with the AAC and Sun Belt, as we’ll see Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina from the former and App State vs. Coastal Carolina from the latter.

The line implies that App State and Coastal Carolina is a big game, but the two programs have fallen off from where they were a few years ago. East Carolina fired their head coach a few weeks ago and they are over a touchdown favorite against FAU. It could be a rather interesting night to say the least.

 

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We’ll start with that Mountaineers vs. Chanticleers game and then head from South Carolina up to North Carolina.

For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 11 Hub.

App State Mountaineers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-1, 62.5)

8 p.m. ET

Coastal Carolina’s three-game skid has been as ugly as it gets. They were soundly thrashed by James Madison in a game where they had 181 total yards of offense. They gave up 516 yards to Louisiana and followed that up by allowing 511 yards to Troy, including 342 on the ground on 55 carries. The Chanticleers defense has been awful and the offense has turned in two pretty ugly performances in that span as well.

App State scored a nice win last weekend over a surging Old Dominion team, but looks can be deceiving. The Monarchs had four turnovers, all in App State territory, including a fumble inside the 10 on their first possession. It is definitely a skill to force turnovers, but not really one that App State has had. They had five total takeaways prior to that game against ODU.

The App State offense has been pretty hit or miss this season, which is not what I expected with Joey Aguilar at the helm. He posted a 33/10 TD/INT ratio last season and topped 3,700 yards. He’s already thrown 10 picks this season with 18 TD and his completion percentage is down 7% from where it was last year. 

But, Aguilar should catch a break here, as the Chanticleers pass defense has allowed a 17/4 TD/INT ratio and a completion percentage over 60%. They’ve given up over six yards per play.

But that is still way better than App State’s defense, which has given up nearly 6.9 yards per play during what has not been a nice season. Even in conference play, Sun Belt foes have 6.75 yards per play. This defense is down dramatically from past seasons. The Mountaineers are tied for the most plays of 70+ yards allowed and are tied for the second-most plays of 60+ yards allowed.

Coastal has been a big-play offense with 26 plays of 30+ yards to tie for sixth in the nation and 14 plays of 40+ yards to tie for 12th.

I think we’re getting points in this one.

Pick: Over 62.5

Other Thursday Game

FAU Owls at East Carolina Pirates (-7.5, 57.5): Florida Atlantic needs to win out to be considered for a bowl game and that could very well be the last gasp for Tom Herman to keep this job. FAU has been bad on his watch and they come into this week’s game as the only team in the AAC without a conference win. Their only two wins this season are FIU and Wagner.

East Carolina let out some frustration last week on Temple with 56 points in three quarters and 500 yards of offense. Interim head coach Blake Harrell was the defensive coordinator for the past five seasons and is not going to be a finalist for the job in all likelihood, but the team played well last week. They did not play well the week prior against Army in what was a 38-7 game after three quarters.

No play from me here, as ECU obviously deserves to be favored, but maybe not by that much.

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