Arizona State vs. Duke
This year’s Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl features the Arizona State Sun Devils taking on the Duke Blue Devils in El Paso, Texas. Injuries derailed Arizona State’s season, but the team still finished a respectable 8-4. Now, with head coach Kenny Dillingham having inked a new contract, the Sun Devils will be looking to finish the year on a positive note. However, the Blue Devils, who won the ACC Championship Game, will be eager to themselves. And it’s Duke that enters this game with a bigger chunk of contributors. Let’s dive into how this one might play out in our Arizona State vs. Duke betting preview.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 27, 2:00 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke (-3, 49.5)
Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2:00 pm ET (CBS)
Michigan was hot for Dillingham, but the ASU alum was able to use it to get a raise. Dillingham is now hoping that he can build another contender in Tempe, utilizing some improved resources to pay assistants and bring in some better players. However, the short-term situation with the Sun Devils doesn’t look great. Star quarterback Sam Leavitt, who was already out for the year with an injury, left the program. ASU will also be without star wideout Jordyn Tyson, who should be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. But it doesn’t stop there. The list of Sun Devils opt-outs also includes Xavion Alford, Keith Abney II, Raleek Brown, Max Iheanachor, Keyshaun Elliott, and Chamon Metayer. Dillingham could also lose a few more players by the time this game rolls around.
For Duke, Manny Diaz says that he’ll be without only Brian Parker II, Chandler Rivers, and Vincent Anthony Jr. Of course, those are some great players, but the majority of the Blue Devils starters will be out there. That includes quarterback Darian Mensah, who “re-signed” with Duke after the season. Mensah is a much better quarterback than Jeff Sims, who is expected to start for Arizona State. And while talented freshman Cam Dyer is expected to get some reps for the Sun Devils, he can’t be expected to match the production of Mensah here.
It’s just hard not to feel like none of Arizona State’s numbers matter. The Sun Devils are 38th in the nation in Rush EPA per play (0.057) and 36th in Dropback EPA per play (0.091), but they’re missing so many of the key pieces that made the offense special. That means it could be hard for ASU to take advantage of a Duke defense that was pretty mediocre by Diaz’s standards. They’re also missing some big-time contributors for a good defense.
The Sun Devils were also 130th in the nation in net field position (-4.43) this year, while the Blue Devils were 18th (3.46). That’s something that could make a big difference in this game.
If Duke can just avoid making costly mistakes, the team really should win this game comfortably. That’s not exactly a given with the Blue Devils having turned in some ugly performances this year. Diaz has, however, been very trustworthy in these spots. Duke is 8-3 straight-up in games with lines between +3 and -3 since he became head coach.
Arizona State vs. Duke Sun Bowl Prediction
Dillingham is one of the best coaches in college football, but it’s going to be hard for him to overcome the roster turnover Arizona State is dealing with. The Sun Devils are in as bad of shape as anyone when looking at injuries, opt-outs, and transfers. So, while I think Arizona State will be prepared here, I do think the mismatch in talent will be a little too big.
Pick: Duke ML (-145 – 2 units)
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