Arizona vs. SMU
In one of the most underrated matchups of the entire bowl season, we’ll see the Arizona Wildcats face the SMU Mustangs in the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl on Friday, January 2. This game will be played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California, and it features two exciting teams. Arizona finished the season with a 9-3 record, and a 10-win season would be a major accomplishment after Brent Brennan went 4-8 in Year 1. So, the Wildcats should be locked in here. Meanwhile, the Mustangs have an opportunity to win nine games, which would be a nice follow-up to last year’s College Football Playoff appearance. That said, keep reading for our thoughts on how Arizona vs. SMU will go.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 30, 3:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl: Arizona (-2.5, 52.5) vs. SMU
Friday, January 2, 8:00 pm ET (FOX)
When looking at CFB Graphs’ numbers, it’s hard not to feel like Arizona is a much better team than SMU. The Mustangs’ calling card is their explosive offense, led by talented dual-threat quarterback Kevin Jennings. However, SMU’s EPA per play of 0.074 is actually a little worse than Arizona’s 0.077. Game On Paper also has Arizona with a slightly higher success rate on offense (42.3% vs. 41.9%) than SMU. Well, that’s pretty hard to ignore when looking at this game, as it’s the Wildcats that are much better on defense. Game On Paper has Arizona at No. 3 in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.11), while CFB Graphs has Brennan’s team at 13th (-0.150). This was a big-time defense during the regular season, while SMU wasn’t even a top-50 defensive unit when looking at several rankings.
Another major advantage that Arizona has over SMU is the battle in field position. The Wildcats were the No. 2 team in the nation (6.45) at CFB Graphs in net field position. Well, the Mustangs are just 92nd in the nation (-1.45) there. That’s the type of thing that could really tilt the scales in Arizona’s favor. If the special teams battle significantly favors one team, that team is going to have a much easier time winning the game.
Rhett Lashlee is also 9-10 straight-up in non-conference games with SMU, and he’s 1-6 when facing Big 12 opponents. On top of that, the Mustangs are 0-2 SU in neutral-field games with totals between 49.5 and 56 — and 0-3 SU in neutral-field games overall. Well, under Brennan, the Wildcats are 10-4 SU as favorites. They’re also 4-0 SU in non-conference games.
This just feels like a pretty straightforward game with Arizona looking like the right side. However, the opt-outs and transfers make things interesting. It already looks like the Wildcats will be without Michael Wooten, Keyan Burnett, Treydan Stukes, and Genesis Smith. Also, Brennan flat-out noted that he’s expecting a lot more opt-outs, but he’s trying to hide them so that he doesn’t give SMU a competitive advantage. That makes this a little harder to handicap.
Arizona vs. SMU Holiday Bowl Prediction
If there was a little more certainty with Arizona’s bowl game depth chart, I’d be going a little heavier on a moneyline play on the Wildcats. They were a better team than the Mustangs this year, and I think this game means a little more to Arizona. However, without knowing exactly who is playing, I’m keeping it light and taking this to win a single unit.
Pick: Arizona ML (-140)
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