Arizona Wildcats:
Arizona was a surprise last season. It went 10-3 SU/11-2 ATS and won a bowl against Oklahoma to end the year. Jedd Fisch departed for Washington in the offseason, but most of the production remained in Tucson, including quarterback Noah Fifita. Brent Brennan comes in from San José State with a loaded team and expectations of competing for a conference title in the program’s first season in the Big 12.
Offense
Fifita did not start until Week 5 last season, but once he grabbed the starting job he instantly became one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-12. As a starter Fifita completed 71.3% of his passes and threw 25 touchdowns to six interceptions. Only Bo Nix was a higher graded passer by PFF in the Pac-12 after Fifita took the job.
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Brennan hired Dino Babers as his offensive coordinator, a hire that should make Arizona one of the better-coordinated offenses in the Big 12. Babers has a plethora of weapons at his disposal this season.
Tetairoa McMillan opted to return after a strong season in which he caught 90 passes for 1,396 yards and 10 touchdowns. New Mexico transfer Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran for 1,190 yards and averaged 6.3 yards last season. The offensive line only loses one starter – albeit a massive one – in first-round draft pick Jordan Morgan.
Defense
Arizona was extremely strong up front last season. The Wildcats allowed just 3.6 yards per carry and 118.2 yards per contest. That led to a ton of success on early downs, and as a result, they were 30th in opponent EPA on early downs. The defensive line was a driving force behind that success, but the unit is being essentially rebuilt this season.
Four starters depart from the line, and in their place are a litany of transfers from San José State, Syracuse, Stanford and USC. Their run defense figures to regress this season, but the Wildcats’ secondary—which finished 40th in opponent EPA per dropback—figures to be a strength once again as the Wildcats return a ton of production.
Their linebacker room remains mostly intact from last season, led by leading tackler and First Team All-Pac 12 middle linebacker Jacob Manu. Defensive back Tecario Davis was their highest-graded corner in coverage by PFF (87.5). He had 12 pass breakups and an interception, and he was charged with three other dropped picks last season.
Outlook
Brent Brennan has an absolutely loaded roster for his first season in Tucson, and he has a great staff around him. Arizona must make road trips to Kansas State and Utah, as well as play host to Texas Tech and West Virginia. To get to nine wins, the Wildcats will have to pull off a road upset while being essentially perfect in games in which they are favored. That is a tough ask in a conference rife with parity.
Pick: Under 8 Wins
