On Thursday, December 26th, we’ll see the Arkansas State Red Wolves against the Bowling Green Falcons in the 68 Ventures Bowl. This is the third of three games on the schedule for Thursday, and it’ll be interesting to see if the night is capped off with a good one. With that in mind, keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.

68 Ventures Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Bowling Green Falcons

How To Watch Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green

Where: Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama
When: 9:00 pm ET on Thursday, December 26th
Channel: ESPN

 

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Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Odds

Moneyline: Bowling Green -270, Arkansas State +220
Spread: Bowling Green -7.5 (-105), Arkansas State +7.5 (-115)
Total: Over 51 (-108), Under 51 (-112)

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Shop around for the best prices!

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Prediction

Both of these teams have some starters in the transfer portal, and Bowling Green actually has two that are on their way to good schools. Right tackle Alex Wollschlaeger is going to Kentucky and linebacker Joseph Sipp is off to Kansas. However, it does seem like star tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who looks like a potential weapon at the NFL level, is going to play. And overall, a good amount of the starters will be out there. That includes quarterback Connor Bazelak, who threw for 2,654 yards and 15 touchdowns this year. Bazelak has started games for both Missouri and Indiana, so it’s likely you’ve heard his name before. And realistically, his presence makes it hard not to like the Falcons here.

Neither one of these teams is all that good at anything, but Bowling Green is at least a top-75 team when it comes to both Dropback EPA per play (-0.006) and Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.007). And considering the Falcons also have the stronger rushing offense and rushing defense, they should win this game.

It also doesn’t help that Arkansas State hasn’t taken advantage of extra preparation and rest under head coach Butch Jones. The team is just 2-4 both straight-up and against the spread after bye weeks, which is more or less what this has been. However, Scot Loeffler hasn’t been much better with Bowling Green. The Falcons are just 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS after byes under him. Also, while Bowling Green is 6-1 SU as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, the team is just 3-4 ATS in those games. The Falcons are also 0-2 ATS in bowl games under Loeffler, making it difficult to fully trust Bowling Green to cover the number.

I actually like the Over in this game. Arkansas State just played a 40-32 game against Old Dominion before beginning bowl prep, and the team has gone Over in four of its last six games. Bowling Green has also scored at least 31 points in three of its last five games, and there’s no reason that Bazelak can’t get the passing game going here.

I know I mentioned Bazelak as a reason to lean towards the Falcons here, but Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor is good enough to lead some successful drives — especially if Arkansas State falls behind and gets to throw against a prevent defense. Raynor has actually thrown for six touchdowns and only one pick over the last two games. He’s also a good runner. His abilities as a dual-threat quarterback make it pretty easy to get on board with this turning into a shootout.

Pick: Over 50.5 (-115)

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