Army-Navy Game:

One of the greatest sporting events of the year has arrived, as we have the 2024 version of the Army-Navy Game. Under bettors have really loved this game over the years, but it is a celebration of both college football and the United States Military in what is usually a standalone game that has the day all to itself.

This season, there is a bowl game between South Alabama and Western Michigan, plus a HBCU bowl game between Jackson State and South Carolina State. However, Army-Navy kicks off at 3 p.m. ET in Landover, MD and will be the only game in that window.

 

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Let’s break down this year’s version and see if there’s a bet to be made.

Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights (-6.5, 39)

Saturday, 3 p.m. ET

Let’s start with this – the Under in service academy games is 46-11-2 since 2005, which includes quite a run of low-scoring affairs in this game. During the 2022 game, the Over hit for the first time in 17 years. Last year’s game had a total of 28, which is hysterical. More hysterical? The game pushed the closing total with a 17-11 Army win.

We came mere inches away from a second straight Over, as Army stopped Navy on the goal line on fourth down to end the game. This year’s total is quite a bit higher, as we’ve seen some good offense from both of these teams. Navy’s revamped offense under first-year OC Drew Cronic was eighth in total rushing yards per game and 16th in yards per carry, a huge upgrade from last season. The Middies had 5.4 yards per carry this season after posting just 4.3 last season.

As the season went on, though, Navy found less success. In their first four games of the season, they had 6.2 yards per pop. Compare that to 5.4 in three October games and just 4.6 in four November games. QB Blake Horvath missed a game in that span and also rushed for just 145 yards in his final three games. He had four 100+ yard games before that, including a 211-yard effort against Memphis.

Horvath hasn’t played since November 16 and only had one pass attempt and five carries in that game. He should be healthier here, whereas Army’s QB Bryson Daily has played a couple of extra games with the AAC Championship against Tulane and the regular season finale against UTSA, where he threw for a season-high 190 yards.

Daily has rushed for 1,480 yards and 29 touchdowns this season, as Army racked up 5.7 yards per tote and finished sixth in the nation in that department during the regular season. Lead back Kanye Udoh also ran for over 1,000 yards, giving Army two 1,000-yard rushers for the first time since 2012 when Trent Steelman (1,248) and Raymond Johnson-Maples (1,215) did it.

Obviously the familiarity between the two teams, the slow tempo, and the running clock from all the running plays are root causes of the huge Under run in this game. Army has been good on offense throughout the Jeff Monken era, while Navy has had some real bad years on the ground of late. This is their first time over five yards per carry since 2019.

With the total ticking down off the opener of 40.5 and Army up to -6.5 after opening 4 or 4.5, the market seems pretty set here. Circa went to 7 briefly before finding out what they needed to find out. Other books have done the same and found out the same. A line of +7 will get some Navy money with points likely at a premium.

Horvath says he’s good. I’ll take his word for it, but the dynamic duo of Daily and Udoh just has too much upside in my mind.

Pick: Army -6.5

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