Baylor Bears:

Dave Aranda enters his fifth season in Waco squarely on the hot seat. In four years, he is 23-25 with a 47.9% cover rate and one winning season to his name. The former LSU defensive coordinator had one of his most experienced teams back in 2024, which is good for a coach looking to save his job.

Offense

Quarterback has been a position that has troubled Aranda throughout his tenure. This offseason, he elected to fix that through the transfer portal with the addition of Toledo quarterback DeQuan Finn. Finn is a strong dual-threat weapon, and he is coming off a career year as a passer. The sixth-year senior completed a career-high 63.0% of his passes, averaged 8.3 yards per attempt and accounted for 29 touchdowns. He will be an upgrade at the position without a doubt.

 

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The skill positions are loaded with returning production for Baylor as well.

The Bears’ top three wide receivers return from last season, as do their top five rushers. Monaray Baldwin struggled with drops (6), but he is an explosive receiver who averaged 8.1 yards after catch per reception. Ketron Jackson led the team in yards per reception (17.5). They also brought in tight end Michael Trigg to bolster a position that lost its top two from 2023.

Aranda also hired Jake Spavital to be the offensive coordinator. Spavital is the former Texas State head coach who filled the same role at Cal last season. The expectation is that Spavital will have the Bears running a more up-tempo style. In the end, Baylor has a new coordinator, an upgrade at quarterback and experienced skill positions. This unit should be better than it was a year ago.

Defense

Another sign of the pressure Aranda is under is how he is handling his defense this season. 

Matt Powledge will remain the defensive coordinator, but by all accounts, Aranda will handle play-calling. How much Aranda’s coordination will improve this unit remains to be seen, but it cannot be much worse for a team that finished 132nd in opponent EPA per play.

Secondary is the most experienced group on the roster, but Baylor was 133rd in opponent EPA per dropback in 2023. The expectation is that the combination of experience and Aranda’s play-calling could fix this issue, but it is not realistic to expect a leap back to average here.

The defensive line loses both starting defensive ends, but the Bears return good production up the middle at both nose tackle and linebacker. Still, this team finished 114th in opponent EPA per rush. They allowed 5.1 yards per carry. Aranda could improve this unit, but it is more than likely Baylor is a below average defense once again.

Outlook

Baylor has five conference games on the road this season, but only one of them is against a conference favorite (Utah). With Finn at quarterback this team has a real chance to take a big leap on offense. The Bears also face BYU and Houston while also getting winnable games against Colorado, Kansas and TCU. The defense might not be much better, but the offense could do enough to save Aranda’s job.

Pick: Over 5.5 Wins

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