Baylor vs. LSU:

Before the Fiesta Bowl between Penn State and Boise State takes center stage, there are four bowl games on Tuesday December 31. The latest of the four is the Kinder’s Texas Bowl between the Baylor Bears and LSU Tigers. Both teams come in with 8-4 records, but only one can improve to 9-4 and end the season with a victory.

The biggest story heading into this bowl game is the extreme shuffling on the LSU offensive line, which is a contributing factor as to why Baylor is favored and why they went from an underdog to a favorite at NRG Stadium in Houston.

 

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Texas Bowl: Baylor Bears (-3.5, 59) vs. LSU Tigers

How To Watch The Texas Bowl

When: Tuesday December 31, 3:30 p.m. ET

How: ESPN

Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, TX

LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier says that he’ll be back in Baton Rouge next season, but we’ll see if he changes his mind after playing behind a patchwork offensive line. The Tigers have one starter projected to play at his normal position in C DJ Chester. Beyond that, the line is projected to be comprised of backups and players out of position. NFL prospects Will Campbell and Emery Jones have opted out, meaning both tackles are out of the lineup and the guards are likely to shift to tackle.

So Nussmeier, who had a big season with 3,739 yards and 26 TD tosses, will have to worry about that, along with the absence of top target Kyren Lacy, who has his sights set on the NFL. Lacy led the team with 58 catches for 866 yards. TE Mason Taylor was second with 55 catches, but he, too, has opted out to avoid injury and work towards being as high of a draft pick as possible.

That likely means a lot of targets for Aaron Anderson, who was second in receiving yards and touchdowns. CJ Daniels has committed to Miami, so LSU will be missing another popular target. The depth at the position is very thin going up against a Bears bunch that was right around the national average in yards per play allowed.

By comparison, Baylor might as well be fully intact here. Safety Corey Gordon tied for the team lead in picks and went portaling. Other than that, the absences are few and far between for Baylor. The most surprising thing about the bowl game for Baylor is that Dave Aranda is coaching it. Not because he was courted by other programs, but because many expected him to not make it through the season. The Bears got off to a rough start with four losses in their first six games, but pulled it together to win out.

Baylor had a 1,000-yard rusher in Bryson Washington and ran for 4.9 yards per carry. Sawyer Robertson put his stamp on the QB position with a 26/7 TD/INT ratio as a junior, so the soon-to-be senior from Lubbock’s development means that the Bears don’t go into next season with questions at the most important position on the field.

Aranda, who was the DC and associate head coach at LSU from 2016-19 under Ed Orgeron, really did a masterful job with a team that seemed to be stuck in neutral most of the season. This is a big game for recruiting purposes, given that LSU loves to look in Texas for talent and with good reason. 

But I don’t love that Baylor only had 23 sacks and gave up over four yards per carry. Maybe they can take advantage of the cobbled together LSU offensive line, but they didn’t generate a ton of negative plays. Instead, I think the Over is the way to look here.

Pick: Over 59

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