Miami vs. Indiana
Mitch Moss
Miami +8.5
I’ll step in front of the Indiana train and take +8.5 with Miami. I have heard “Miami has as much talent as any team in the country” over and over again since before they officially made the playoffs. I continued to hear it after the wins over Ohio State and Ole Miss. Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal was upbeat discussing the health of his team this week after some key guys got hurt against Mississippi. The key issue is this: starting CB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game due to a terrible targeting call in the semifinals.
Miami’s overall talent will essentially be a full go.
From a numbers perspective, Indiana may have been favored by this many points versus Miami in late October/early November. The Hoosiers went to Autzen and defeated the Ducks 30-20 on October 11th and followed it up by thumping Michigan State and UCLA. That coincided with Miami losing two of three games. Other than that this number would have been below 8.5 and probably below 7 the entire year. That includes the look ahead numbers before the semifinals. Indiana was favored by 5.5 over Miami before the Hoosiers throttled Oregon in their rematch.
Talent plus an inflated number.
I’ll hate myself when Indiana leads 31-7 at halftime, but give me the Canes plus the points.
Dave Ross
Miami +8.5
After being on Indiana -3.5 vs Oregon, I was expecting market correction. But from 5.5 to 8.5? Too much in my opinion.
Sure, it takes some courage to stand in front of that Cignetti train, and Miami better get ahead early because it can steamroll quickly (ask the Ducks) but I actually think the Hurricanes have more NFL players on their roster than the Hoosiers.
I think this is a battle in the trenches. And if Miami can at least hold their own there, I think they can make this a 4 quarter game and I’d much rather have the points than lay them in this spot.
Ben Stevens
Indiana -5.5 1st Half
The Hoosiers have been dominant and historic so far in the CFP. IU is the only team in the 12-year history of the College Football Playoff to win multiple games by 28+ points in the same year. And Indiana has accomplished that with impressive starts from the very jump. IU led Alabama 17-0 at halftime of the Rose Bowl, and was up 35-7 on Oregon in the Peach Bowl. If you think Indiana’s historic run continues, this is a way I would play it.
Fernando Mendoza Over 16.5 Rush Yards
The Heisman winner has gone over this number in 11 of 15 games this season, including posting 28 rush yards in the win over Oregon. Even being sacked three times against Alabama, Mendoza just missed this number by the hook. With Miami’s pass rush perhaps flushing Mendoza out of the pocket, I expect him to utilize his athleticism on Monday night.
Pauly Howard
Mark Fletcher Over 68.5 Rush Yards and ChaMar Brown Over 25.5 Rush Yards
For Miami to win and keep it close, I think they have to run the ball, chew clock, and keep Mendoza and that offense on the sidelines. Mark Fletcher is a beast, and I also like CharMar Brown. He was good against Ole Miss and added a TD late.
Vs. Ole Miss: Fletcher 22-133 and Brown 14-54 and a TD.
Fletcher vs. Ohio State: 19-90.
