Miami vs. Indiana
Mitch Moss
Miami +8.5
I’ll step in front of the Indiana train and take +8.5 with Miami. I have heard “Miami has as much talent as any team in the country” over and over again since before they officially made the playoffs. I continued to hear it after the wins over Ohio State and Ole Miss. Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal was upbeat discussing the health of his team this week after some key guys got hurt against Mississippi. The key issue is this: starting CB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game due to a terrible targeting call in the semifinals.
Miami’s overall talent will essentially be a full go.
From a numbers perspective, Indiana may have been favored by this many points versus Miami in late October/early November. The Hoosiers went to Autzen and defeated the Ducks 30-20 on October 11th and followed it up by thumping Michigan State and UCLA. That coincided with Miami losing two of three games. Other than that this number would have been below 8.5 and probably below 7 the entire year. That includes the look ahead numbers before the semifinals. Indiana was favored by 5.5 over Miami before the Hoosiers throttled Oregon in their rematch.
Talent plus an inflated number.
I’ll hate myself when Indiana leads 31-7 at halftime, but give me the Canes plus the points.
Dave Ross
Miami +8.5
After being on Indiana -3.5 vs Oregon, I was expecting market correction. But from 5.5 to 8.5? Too much in my opinion.
Sure, it takes some courage to stand in front of that Cignetti train, and Miami better get ahead early because it can steamroll quickly (ask the Ducks) but I actually think the Hurricanes have more NFL players on their roster than the Hoosiers.
I think this is a battle in the trenches. And if Miami can at least hold their own there, I think they can make this a 4 quarter game and I’d much rather have the points than lay them in this spot.
Ben Stevens
Indiana -5.5 1st Half
The Hoosiers have been dominant and historic so far in the CFP. IU is the only team in the 12-year history of the College Football Playoff to win multiple games by 28+ points in the same year. And Indiana has accomplished that with impressive starts from the very jump. IU led Alabama 17-0 at halftime of the Rose Bowl, and was up 35-7 on Oregon in the Peach Bowl. If you think Indiana’s historic run continues, this is a way I would play it.
Fernando Mendoza Over 16.5 Rush Yards
The Heisman winner has gone over this number in 11 of 15 games this season, including posting 28 rush yards in the win over Oregon. Even being sacked three times against Alabama, Mendoza just missed this number by the hook. With Miami’s pass rush perhaps flushing Mendoza out of the pocket, I expect him to utilize his athleticism on Monday night.
Pauly Howard
Mark Fletcher Over 68.5 Rush Yards and ChaMar Brown Over 25.5 Rush Yards
For Miami to win and keep it close, I think they have to run the ball, chew clock, and keep Mendoza and that offense on the sidelines. Mark Fletcher is a beast, and I also like CharMar Brown. He was good against Ole Miss and added a TD late.
Vs. Ole Miss: Fletcher 22-133 and Brown 14-54 and a TD.
Fletcher vs. Ohio State: 19-90.
Dustin Swedelson
Over 47.5
As a biased Miami fan with 16/1 to win the title in pocket, I keep going back and forth on the side. An underdog hasn’t covered or won the title game since Clemson upset Alabama in 2017. But I have also been wrong about Miami actually getting here and bet against them each step of the playoff.
The total initially looked like an Under play to me. Then I looked at the recent run of National Championship scores we have had. The last 10 title games have averaged 62.9 points. Something tells me Indiana controls the pace and Miami will need to keep up. Let’s go Over 47.5.
Jensen Lewis
Under 47.5
House money for yours truly, cashing my +2630 future ticket on Miami & Indiana to meet in the National Championship from our VSiN CFP Betting Guide. Add in my remaining +3250 ticket on the Hurricanes to win the title and the only decision remains on “to hedge or not to hedge?” Fortune favors the bold, so I’m riding the horse that brought me and only playing the Under 47.5 pregame.
Mario Cristobal wants to turn this game into a street fight and I believe the speed and depth at each level of the Miami defense is something Indiana hasn’t dealt with all year. Both units come in allowing next to nothing offensively: the Hoosiers surrender 11.1 points per game, while the Canes are right at 14.5 points per contest. I’m focusing on Indiana’s red zone trips – can they convert those opportunities into touchdowns or be forced to settle for field goals? They’re an incredibly disciplined offense and the Miami secondary must limit Elijah Sarratt anywhere near the end zone. The Hoosiers want this game in the high-20s / low-30s and I anticipate Curt Cignetti will attempt to press the pace early.
The recipe for Miami is simple in my eyes: win the field position game, slow everything WAY down and lean on Mark Fletcher Jr. and Malachi Toney to move the chains on the ground. Carson Beck must make quality decisions in the pocket, including not forcing the ball into tight windows outside the numbers. Edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, not heard from much in the Fiesta Bowl against Ole Miss, are due for some highlight reel plays.
Long, drawn-out offensive drives, coupled with forcing Fernando Mendoza into uncomfortable downs and distances: that game script gets the Hurricanes to a very tight, pressure-packed fourth quarter and the opportunity to win it all on their home turf. Carter Davis buries a game-winner and Miami defeats Indiana, 24-21.
Scott Seidenberg
Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 16.5 Rush Attempts
Miami will stick to the run game and try to wear down this Indiana defense. They ran 51 times vs. Ole Miss and 37 vs. Ohio State. The key to beating Indiana will be a commitment to the run game. Even if they get shut down early, they won’t abandon it.
Miami WR Malachi Toney Over 73.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
Miami’s go to weapon. Toney is heavily involved in the screen game. Carson Beck’s ADOT this season was below eight yards so expect a lot of quick slants and screens to Toney. He is a home run threat so he can always bust a long one. The reason I went COMBO yards instead of just receiving is in case any of those screen passes get ruled as backwards passes and go into the box score as running plays rather than receiving plays.
Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
Miami CB Xavier Lucas is suspended for the first half after that ridiculous targeting call in the semifinal. Expect Mendoza to force feed his go to weapon early and challenge the other Miami defensive backs to defend the back shoulder throw which no one has really been able to this season.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Under 16.5 Rushing Yards
In CFB, the great equalizer is that sacks count against QB rushing yards. Miami not only leads the nation in sacks, but they lead in yards lost from the sack, averaging 7.5 negative yards per sack this season. They sacked Trinidad Chambliss just 1 time in the Semi Final, and despite a 19 yard run later in the game, Chambliss still went under his rushing prop thanks to the big negative play on the sack. If Miami gets to Mendoza twice, this is an easy Under.
Indiana WR Charlie Becker Over 2.5 Receptions
Overlooked in this Indiana offense, Becker has come through in big games for Mendoza. With attention being paid to Sarratt, Becker could be the beneficiary and with Lucas out for Miami in the first half, Indiana will look to exploit the Canes secondary early and often.
Over 2.5 FGs Made
Both teams lock it down in the red zone and both coaches will be conservative early and take the points in what could be a defensive battle.
Tim Murray
Miami +8.5 & First Half Under 23.5
The story of Indiana Football is truly remarkable. No program in college football has more losses than Indiana (715), but Curt Cignetti has turned this program into a powerhouse in less than two years. As a favorite under Cignetti, Indiana is 24-0 SU and 17-7 ATS while covering by a FBS-best 15.1 points per game. That said, the point spread tonight seems to be a bit inflated. In the Big Ten Championship on December 6, Indiana closed as a 3.5-point underdog vs. Ohio State in Indianapolis. The Hoosiers won, 13-10. On December 31 in the Cotton Bowl, Miami closed as a 7.5-point underdog against Ohio State. The Hurricanes won, 24-14. Yes, Indiana has outscored Alabama and Oregon by a combined 69 points during the College Football Playoff. However, the lookahead number for this game was Indiana -5.5.
Additionally, Miami heads into the National Championship with elite line play. The Hurricanes would be content running the football and trying to play keep away from Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana offense. Miami and Indiana are both two of the slower-paced teams in the country. According to Brett Ciancia of Pick Six Previews, the Hurricanes are 65th (out of 68 Power 4 programs) and the Hoosiers are 63rd in seconds/per play.
The biggest concern for going against Indiana on Monday night in Miami is mistakes. The Hoosiers are +21 in turnover margin, tops in college football. Miami also committed 10 penalties against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. If Miami can play a clean game, I expect the Hurricanes to keep this close and lower scoring in the first half.
Sean Green
Miami +7.5
Everyone is on Indiana and it’s easy to understand why. They’ve dominated everyone they’ve faced in the College Football Playoff. I’ll go contrarian here and take the Miami Hurricanes and the points at home in a National Championship game. Defense wins championships and this Miami defense is criminally underrated, additionally they’re not getting enough credit for how battle tested they’ve become. Road win at College Station, huge upset win against Ohio State and closing it out against a red hot Ole Miss team. The key as always is turnovers, Indiana had three fumbles and lost zero meanwhile Miami had four near INTs in the semifinal game. The turnover luck runs out for Indiana and this game is closer than expected.
Brad Taylor
Miami +7.5
I’m a Market Follower. And as the old adage goes, “The bigger the game, the more you want to fade the public.” Seeing the betting splits with a majority of money on Indiana is one thing. But the line dropping to Miami is another. A late Reverse Line Move to Miami. And how many times have we seen over the years a team celebrated as potentially being the “Greatest Team of All Time” turn out to be fraudulent in a Championship Game? The year USC lost to Vince Young and Texas is the first one that comes to mind for college football, but it’s happened many times in many sports. Indiana could win this game, but the point spread gives them way too much credit and shows a lot of recency bias. And are we forgetting the game is being played in Miami? Gimme the ‘Canes!
Under 46.5
A classic Reverse Line Move here, as well over two-thirds of public money is on the Over. If that’s the case, then how come this total has dropped from 48.5 to 46.5? And to add some actual stats, both these defenses were in the Top 5 in points allowed per game this season, while being in the bottom half of “Pace of Play” rate. Gimme the Under!
