Betting preview for Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo


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This is the preview for the Boca Raton Bowl

Liberty vs. Toledo (-5, 54.5)

Tuesday, Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)

Betting splits: 73% of handle, 45% of bets on Liberty +5

Danny Burke: Liberty allowed an average of 36 points per game in their final three games, which all resulted in losses. The Flames allowed at least 176 rushing yards in each of those games. That’s music to the ears of Toledo, a team that averages 40 handoffs for 178 rushing yards and 32 points per game. The Rockets ran their way to the MAC Championship with 236 rushing yards on 46 carries. If they can replicate that type of ground dominance in this bowl game against a recently weak run defense, that should open up the doors for Toledo to control the game.

Furthermore, the Flames last game of the season consisted of a 49-14 blowout loss versus New Mexico State—a carousel of quarterback usage as Liberty tested out three different QBs in that contest. Having to test out multiple quarterbacks in your final game of the season is never a strong indication of reliability for a team heading into bowl season, especially when you’re going against a Toledo pass defense that is allowing just 185.5 total yards of passing per game. One team is riding the high from a conference championship, and the other is discombobulated at the most important position. The betting market seems to favor the former, as the Rockets opened as a one-point favorite and have now climbed to as high as a five-point favorite. 

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