Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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- NCAAF Expert Picks
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You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s College Football slate…
7 p.m. ET: Army at UTSA (-8.5, 44.5)
Army (1-1) lost their season opener to UL Monroe 17-13 but then rebounded in Week 2 with a massive 57-0 shutout win over Delaware State. Similarly, UTSA (1-1) dropped their opener to Houston 17-14 but bounced back with a 20-13 win last week over Texas State. This line opened with UTSA listed as high as an 11.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with UTSA. However, despite 58% of bets backing the home favorite, we’ve seen UTSA fall from -11.5 to -8.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog, with pros grabbing the points with Army. Sharps have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 47 to 44.5. The under is receiving 54% of bets and 78% of money, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" sharp bet discrepancy. Both teams lean on the running game, which chews up the clock and oftentimes benefits the under. Army is averaging 229.5 rushing yards per game while UTSA is averaging 183 rushing yards per game.
8 p.m. ET: Utah State at Air Force (-9.5, 46.5)
Utah State (1-1) fell to Iowa 24-14 in Week 1 but bounced back with a big 78-28 win over Idaho State last week. Meanwhile, Air Force (2-0) is undefeated to start the season, having beating Robert Morris 42-7 in the opener and then taking down Sam Houston State 13-3 last week. This line opened with Air Force listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this even split we’ve seen the line remain frozen at Air Force -9.5 or dip slightly to Air Force -9. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So, reading between the lines, it appears as though smart money is grabbing Utah State plus the points. Utah State is receiving 48% of bets but 63% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 47 to 46.5. The under is receiving 52% of bets but 64% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for mid 50s with 5-7 MPH winds at Falcon Stadium.
