Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s College Football slate…
9 p.m. ET: Utah at Oregon State (-4.5, 44.5)
Utah (4-0) is ranked 10th and just edged UCLA 14-7, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Oregon State (3-1) is ranked 19th and just fell to Washington State 38-35, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Oregon State listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Oregon State has the worse ranking and is coming off a loss, then why are they favored? Shouldn’t Utah be the one laying points here? The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with Utah. However, if it looks too good to be true, it usually is. Despite Utah receiving 71% of bets we’ve seen the line move further to Oregon State -2 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Beavers, with pros fading the trendy dog and instead backing the fishy contrarian home favorite. Oregon State is only receiving 29% of bets but 50% of money, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is 5-3 ATS (62%) this season and 176-142 ATS (55%) since 2016. Oregon State has a big edge on offense, averaging 460 yards per game compared to 323 for Utah. Oregon State is averaging 225 yards on the ground compared to 166 for Utah.
10:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati (-1, 49.5) at BYU
Cincinnati (2-2) started the season 2-0 but has since lost two straight, falling to Oklahoma 20-6 last week and failing to cover as 13.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, BYU (3-1) won their first three games but then lost to Kansas 38-27 last week, failing to cover as 9-point road dogs. This line opened with BYU listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is all over BYU laying a short chalk spread at home. However, despite BYU receiving 69% of bets, we’ve seen this line complete flip to Cincinnati -1. If BYU is at home, boasts a better record and is the popular bet, then why is the line moving so drastically to Cincinnati? This signal sharp "dog to favorite" line movement on the Bearcats. Cincinnati is only receiving 31% of bets but 49% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Cincinnati will lean on their offense, averaging 488 yards per game compared to 325 for BYU. The Bearcats have a huge advantage on the ground, averaging 215 rushing yards per game compared to just 61 for BYU. The Bearcats average 33:48 in time of possession per game, tops in the Big 12. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 49.5. This movement is notable because 70% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell, indicating sharp under money.
