Betting Splits and CFB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday December 16 Bowl Games

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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Saturday’s first round of College Football Bowl Games.

 

11 a.m. ET: Georgia Southern (-3.5, 48.5) vs Ohio

This is the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Georgia Southern (6-6) dropped four straight games to end the regular season, falling to Appalachian State 55-27 in the season finale. On the flip side, Ohio (9-3) won three straight to wrap up the regular season, beating Akron 25-14 in the finale. 

This line opened with Ohio listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. We’ve seen this line completely flip to Georgia Southern -3.5. Why? Because of a rash of opt-outs on the Ohio side. Ohio will miss starting QB Nathan Rourke, WR Miles Cross, RBs Sieh Bangura and O’Shaan Alisson along with LB Keye Thompson. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern is fully loaded without any opt outs.

Currently 55% of bets and 87% of money is backing Georgia Southern, signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action. Those looking to back Georgia Southern but wary of laying the points could instead target the Eagles on the moneyline -165. Georgia Southern is receiving 58% of bets but 76% of money on the moneyline, a sharp bet split.

The total has also fallen from 54.5 to 48.5. Currently 45% of bets but 56% of money is sweating the under, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy.

 

5:45 p.m. ET: New Mexico State (-3.5, 51) vs. Fresno State

This is the Isleta New Mexico Bowl. New Mexico State (10-4) just saw their eight-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Liberty 49-35 in the Conference USA championship game. On the other hand, Fresno State (8-4) has lost their last three games and just fell to San Diego State 33-18 in their season finale.

This line opened with New Mexico State listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Currently 62% of bets and 90% of money is laying the points with New Mexico State. This combination of slight public support but also heavy smart money has steamed New Mexico State up from -1.5 to -3.5. Fresno State starting QB Logan Fife has opted out of this game. Fresno State will also miss their head coach Jeff Tedford who is out for health reasons. New Mexico State will also enjoy "home field" advantage as the game will be played at University Stadium, home of the New Mexico Lobos. 

Those looking to back New Mexico State but wary of laying the points could instead target the Aggies on the moneyline at -170.