Big 10
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
The SEC frequently promotes its tagline/motto “It Just Means More”. However, in terms of College Football National Championships, they have meant the most in the Big Ten, as this conference has produced the last two national champions (Michigan 2023, Ohio State 2024). The conference had four playoff teams and two in the semifinals last year, much to the consternation of the talking heads on ESPN.
The Big Ten has a chance of a three-peat with three of the top six choices on the odds board. Defending national champion Ohio State (5/1 national champions; 2/1 Big Ten) had 14 players chosen this past April in the 2025 NFL Draft and the attrition is not limited just to the player roster, but to the coaching staff as well as both coordinators depart.
James Franklin may have his best roster ever at Penn State (+750; +250) but is still seeking to win “the big one” despite two playoff victories last year.
Oregon (11/1; 3/1) won the Big Ten in its first season but ended up being crushed by the Buckeyes in the rematch at the Rose Bowl.
The surprise last season was Indiana (100/1; 35/1) making the CFP last season and having its best season (11-2) in program history with an entirely new coaching staff and roster.
If not Indiana again, many in the media believe Illinois (150/1; 30/1) can be this year’s dark horse with 19 returning starters from a 10-win club.
Michigan (25/1; +850) and USC (100/1; 25/1) were down in 2024 but the talent is there for rebounds in 2025.
Iowa, Nebraska, Washington, Minnesota, and Rutgers should all achieve bowl eligibility. Wisconsin, Michigan State, UCLA, Northwestern, and Purdue, with the only coaching change in the conference – Barry Odom (UNLV) – look like the bottom third.
Illinois Fighting Illini
With Indiana’s success last season, Illinois’ surprising 10-4 season, its first double-digit win season since 2001, flew largely under the radar.
The Illini, picked 13th in the conference preseason poll, finished No. 16 in the AP Poll and are not under the radar in 2025 as they return 19 starters and Bret Bielema, who guided Wisconsin to three Rose Bowl appearances, knows his way around the Big Ten and keeps his coaching staff intact.
Illinois avoids Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan on the schedule but does host Ohio State and USC along with taking trips to Duke and Indiana.
Offense
QB Luke Altmyer had an inconsistent 2023 season after transferring from Ole Miss but showed dramatic improvement last season with increases in passing yards (1883 to 2717), touchdown passes (13 to 22), and a reduction in turnovers with only six interceptions.
Altmyer also gets support from an offensive line that returns all five starters. That line will be blocking for a trio of running backs including Kaden Feagin (744 yards L2Y), who missed half of the season with a hip injury, Aidan Laughery (589 yards), and Ca’Lil Valentine (212 yards).
The receiving corps is the question mark though as Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin are gone to the NFL and Josh McCray transferred to Georgia. Almost 70 percent of the receiving production has departed, so Hudson Clement, West Virginia’s leading receiver last year (741 yards, 5 TD), must be the go-to guy immediately.
Defense
The Illini got a boost when OLB Gabe Jacas elected to forego the NFL Draft. Jacas led Illinois in sacks (8), tackles for loss (13), forced fumbles (3) and quarterback hurries (10). However, he is the only established threat off the edge. A pair of Wisconsin transfers – Curt Neal and James Thompson Jr. – come in to help a defensive line hit hard by graduation.
LB Dylan Rosiek was the team’s leading tackler before breaking his leg against Minnesota and missing the final four games of the season. He is expected to be back.
S Xavier Scott was first-team All-Big Ten last season and leads a talented veteran group that includes fellow safety Matthew Bailey, who led the team with 94 tackles.
Outlook
On paper, Illinois should have everything to once again surprise in the Big Ten. However, they did catch all the breaks last season and went 5-1 in one-score games and won five games as outright underdogs. The Illini are probably a bit overpriced in the market with all the returning starters. They will be a typical physically tough team under Bielema, but the passing game lacks playmakers. The schedule will be much more difficult than last year’s slate.
Pick: Under 8.5 Wins
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Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana was 9-27 and just 3-24 in Big Ten play before Curt Cignetti’s arrival in Bloomington. The daunting task of turning around a dormant program was no big deal to Cignetti and his crew from James Madison. “I win. Google me.”
No one could have fathomed, except for perhaps Cignetti, that Indiana, picked 17th in the Big Ten, would win 11 games and make the inaugural 12-team CFP. Granted, the schedule was highly favorable, but the Hoosiers took care of business to an average score of 41.3 to 15.6.
This year, the Hoosiers lose a great deal of production, but once again hit the portal hard and have 16 starters (including transfers) back and a schedule, while adding road games at Oregon and at Penn State, looks to be highly manageable for another successful season.
Offense
The Hoosiers set records last season for touchdowns and had eight 40+ point games. QB Kurtis Rourke has gone to the NFL and Tino Sunseri takes the OC job at UCLA, but Fernando Mendoza (3,004 yards, 69% completion last season) transfers in from Cal. He is an upgrade from an athleticism standpoint and is behind a much better OL than he had in Berkeley with three returning starters and transfers Pat Coogan (Notre Dame) and Kahlil Benson, who returns to Bloomington after a season at Colorado.
Three of Indiana’s four leading rushers are gone, but Maryland transfer Roman Hemby and UAB transfer Lee Beebe were both highly productive at their previous stops and Cignetti always says “production over potential.”
The Hoosiers’ top two receivers Elijah Sarratt (53-957-8), who came with Cignetti from James Madison, and Omar Cooper (28-594-7) also return.
Defense
Indiana returns three All-Big Ten players from this unit – edge rusher Mikail Kamara (10 sacks, 68 QB hurries LY), MLB Aiden Fisher (118 tackles LY), and CB D’Angelo Ponds (3 INT, 9 PBU) – and all three came with Cignetti from James Madison.
Those three helped lead the Hoosiers to rank second nationally in total defense (256.3 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (15.6 PPG).
The secondary looks to be the strength of the unit, but if the Hoosiers are to be as elite as they were last year defensively then its DL transfers will need to draw the attention that CJ West did to let Kamara run loose off the edge.
Outlook
The Hoosiers have an easy non-conference schedule again and begin the 2025 campaign with four home games concluding with Illinois.
Granted, it is a big ask for Indiana to reach the CFP in back-to-back seasons, but the Hoosiers are far from a one-hit wonder. The NIL commitment combined with Cignetti and his support staff, who all received pay raises, has this program at a different level than Hoosier fans could have ever dreamed of just a couple of years ago. The 8.5-win total looks right, but nine is certainly doable.
Pick: Over 8.5 wins
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Iowa Hawkeyes
While it is difficult to call an eight-win season disappointing and Iowa was not expected to be a Big Ten title contender, the Hawkeyes were favored in 11 of 13 games last season and avoided the two Big Ten Championship Game participants (Oregon and Penn State) and still won only eight courtesy of blowing double-digit second half leads against Iowa State and in the Music City Bowl against Missouri.
Although the offense showed some improvement under first-year OC Tim Lester, the Hawkeyes could never truly find their footing as three different quarterbacks ended up starting games.
Ohio State and Michigan disappear from the 2025 schedule but are replaced by Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana. The good news is that all three of those are at Kinnick Stadium.
Offense
It was thought that finally removing Brian Ferentz as OC and adding a QB with a higher ceiling (Cade McNamara from Michigan) would improve this unit and it did increase scoring from 15.4 to 27.7 PPG and gained nearly 100 yards more per game versus 2023. However, the ceiling was still too low and McNamara put up pedestrian numbers in his eight starts before injury.
This year, Iowa turns to the portal again with Mark Gronowski, a four-year starter and two-time FCS National Champion at South Dakota State, who gained 12,075 combined yards there, but missed spring due to shoulder surgery.
Kaleb Johnson ran for 1,537 and 21 touchdowns and departs, but Iowa has some depth at RB with Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson returning behind three OL returning starters including first-team All-Big Ten C Logan Jones. The passing game remains a question with Gronowski’s injury plus leading receiver Jacob Gill tallied only 411 yards and two touchdowns.
Defense
There is some attrition on this side of the ball losing six starters, including first-team All-Big Ten LB and leading tackler Jay Higgins (124 tackles), but DC Phil Parker, one of college football’s best defensive minds, always has a good unit here at Iowa and should have one again with three of four DL starters back.
The Hawkeyes did allow the most points and yards that they have in three seasons, but that still only amounted to 17.8 PPG and 318 YPG. The floor is still high for this group combined with the always nationally elite special teams.
Outlook
Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the Big Ten entering his 27th season in Iowa City.
It is hard to bet against a program that has eclipsed seven wins in 17 of the last 26 seasons, but there is a lot riding on an FCS QB coming back from injury and a rebuilt defense. While they get the best teams on the schedule at home, the Hawkeyes still must visit Wisconsin, USC, and Nebraska in league play and those will likely be coin flip games.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
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Maryland Terrapins
In its first season without Taulia Tagovailoa, the program’s all-time leading passer, Maryland certainly had its struggles last season, but did start 3-1 and were 4-3 after upsetting USC at home. Then, the Terps were blown out in each of their last five games and finished 4-8 overall and 1-8 in the Big Ten.
Maryland ranked 100th or lower nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Those numbers led Mike Locksley to make changes at both coordinator positions. On offense, Pep Hamilton, who has been a QB whisperer for the likes of Andrew Luck, Justin Herbert, Alex Smith, Brian Griese, etc, takes over as OC. Ted Monachino has both college and NFL coordinator experience and he takes over as DC.
While not much is expected, the good news for Maryland is that they avoid the top three consensus teams in the Big Ten – Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon.
Offense
Only three starters return for this unit. UCLA transfer Justyn Martin and four-star freshman Malik Washington, who Locksley got to stay home in the DMV, will compete for the starting QB job.
Maryland has talent at receiver with Octavian Smith Jr (30-315-2) plus Jahi Farooq (Oklahoma) and Kaleb Webb (Tennessee) transfer in to replace two NFL draft choices including first team All-Big Ten Kai Felton and his 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns.
The Terps struggled to run the ball, ranking 115th nationally in yards per game (3.6 YPC). Nolan Ray (374 yards) will lead a running back by committee group.
Defense
Monachino has plenty of experience developing pass rushers during his various NFL tenures in Baltimore, Indianapolis, Chicago, and Atlanta. He will need to do that here as Maryland only had 14 sacks last season. They also rated near the bottom of the conference for takeaways (17).
The group only returns one full-time starter, but last year’s defense allowed 30.4 PPG and 378.1 YPG, so it has nowhere to go but upwards.
Outlook
Locksley has recruited well at Maryland, and they had six players drafted this past April, the program’s most since 1986. However, 20 players left the program for the transfer portal, so there is a lot of turnover in College Park.
The schedule should have three victories to start the non-conference before they travel to Wisconsin to play former Terps QB Billy Edwards Jr. Then, they have two home games after a bye week.
Maryland had made three straight bowl games before last year’s poor season. It might be a bit ambitious to forecast a return to postseason play, but the schedule is heavily lightened avoiding the elite teams in the conference.
Pick: Over 4.5 Wins
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Michigan Wolverines
Two years ago, Michigan won the National Championship. Last year, they paid a price for their success as Jim Harbaugh left to go back to the NFL and they lost 13 players to the NFL Draft. The result was an 8-5 campaign that included blowout home losses to Texas and Oregon, but victories at Ohio State and vs. Alabama to conclude the season.
Sherrone Moore was thrown into the fire last year but looks to have more stability in his second season as head coach with a new offense led by new OC Chip Lindsey and a defense under DC Wink Martindale that dominated the Buckeyes and the Crimson Tide.
The Wolverines will conclude the regular season as usual against Ohio State, but they avoid Penn State and Oregon and there is a high probability for a bounce back season.
Offense
The Wolverines ranked 129th nationally in total offense (286.2 YPG) in 2024 and at times could barely complete a forward pass. Lindsey comes in from North Carolina as the new OC to give some life to the passing game and reunites with an old pupil Mikey Keene, who he coached at UCF. Keene transfers in from Fresno State to push the nation’s No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood for the starting QB job.
The receiving corps is largely unproven and Indiana transfer Donovan McCulley must produce immediately.
While there is a change in offensive philosophy, Michigan’s identity still primarily resides with a smash-mouth running game and should still be a focus with Alabama transfer Justice Haynes running behind a deep offensive line that also returns three starters.
Defense
This group was a top-10 unit last season under Martindale and has the potential to repeat that performance despite the loss of two first-round DTs (Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant). Tre Williams (Clemson) and Damon Payne (Alabama) will try to replace them while TJ Guy and Derrick Moore return at the edge positions.
Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barnham, Michigan’s two leading tacklers, return at LB in the 4-2-5 scheme.
Corner Will Johnson is off to the NFL, but former All Big-Ten safety Rod Moore returns from an ACL injury along with starting corners Zeke Berry and Jyaire Hill, who could be the next breakout star of this group.
Outlook
Michigan’s ceiling will be determined by its passing game. Underwood and/or Keene is a massive upgrade over last year’s starters (Davis Warren, Alex Orji, and Jack Tuttle), so the QB play should be there which should make the questionable receiving corps more productive.
Defensively, this group has a lot of talent and good coaching under former NFL DC Martindale.
Eight of Michigan’s nine Big Ten opponents this season had losing conference records last year. This should be a rebound year for the Wolverines and a CFP appearance is not out of the question.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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Michigan State Spartans
Jonathan Smith gradually re-built a program at his alma mater Oregon State and that’s the plan he is taking at Michigan State.
The Spartans started his first season in East Lansing at 4-3, but lost four of its last five games to miss out on bowl eligibility for the third straight season.
Sparty opens with three non-conference games at home, but has a difficult Big Ten road schedule with trips to USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa.
Offense
QB Aidan Chiles came with Smith from Oregon State and had an up-and-down season. In his first five games, he completed just 56 percent of his passes with a 5-8 TD-INT ratio. Those numbers improved in the final seven games to 61 percent with an 8-3 TD-INT ratio. He had to do too much last year and a reunion with Jon Boyer, his QB coach at Oregon State, could be what helps him take a leap this season.
WR Nick Marsh (41-649-3) and TE Jack Velling (36-411-1) return, but transfers Omari Kelly (first team All-CUSA at Middle Tennessee) and RB Elijah Tau-Tolliver (950 rushing yards; 38 receptions at FCS Sacramento State) will be called upon immediately.
The offensive line was the weakest link on the team last year as the Spartans ranked just 110th nationally in rushing offense. Three veteran transfers including C Matt Gulbin, a 22-game starter at Wake Forest, arrive to start for this group.
Defense
The Spartans were stout against the run (32nd nationally), but could not get to opposing passers and only tallied 19 total sacks last season. Jalen Thompson has made 16 straight starts at the end position, but the defensive line talent and depth are still major question marks for this group.
Depth at linebacker and in the secondary is more stable with Jordan Hall manning the middle at LB and third-year starter Malik Spencer at SS.
Outlook
Despite the inconsistent play last season, Michigan State was not all that far off from reaching a bowl game in Smith’s first season. Save for the Michigan and Penn State games, the Spartans will be favored to win their other five home games.
The question is whether they can steal a game somewhere on the road in conference play? That all rests on the shoulders of Chiles, who took his lumps last season, but should be improved this season. Nevertheless, the talent around him and throughout this roster is not there just yet.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Minnesota Golden Gophers
After a losing season in 2023, Minnesota rebounded to go 8-5 with another bowl game victory to move PJ Fleck’s bowl record to 6-0 in Minneapolis. Last year’s campaign included upsets of USC and Wisconsin.
Last year, the Gophers had five Big Ten road games, but this year they have five conference games at home.
Minnesota, like many teams, has a major roster turnover including looking for a replacement for QB Max Brosmer, who is still in Minnesota but now wearing a Vikings uniform instead of a Gophers one.
Offense
Redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey looks to be the starter that will replace Brosmer. It is reasonable to expect the Gophers to be even more run-heavy this season with a young quarterback. Darius Taylor ran for 986 yards and 10 touchdowns last season, plus had 54 catches for 350 yards and two touchdowns.
The OL must be rebuilt a bit after losing three starters including standout Phillip Daniels, who transfers to Ohio State.
It is not just the offensive line that needs restructuring but the receiving corps as well, as Daniel Jackson and Elijah Spencer accounted for over half of the Gophers passing production but have now graduated. Miami (OH) transfer Javon Tracy (57-818-7) could end up being the main target for a young, inexperienced QB.
Defense
DC Corey Hetherman helped lead this group to a No. 5 national ranking in total defense and now moves on to take the same defensive coordinator position at Miami (FL), so Danny Collins is promoted from safeties coach to the position.
First-team All-Big Ten safety Koi Perich (5 INT) leads a secondary that loses its top two corners, including third-rounder Justin Walley, and nickelback.
Leading tackler Cody Lindenberg is off to the NFL, but his backups at linebacker are experienced as are veterans Anthony Smith and Deven Eastern on the line.
Outlook
Fleck has built a consistently solid program at Minnesota. He has also consistently wanted to get out of Minnesota and move to a bigger job.
The defense will take a step back but should still be solid, but the offense looks like it will really struggle to move the ball through the air.
While the schedule is more manageable with five home games in conference play, road wins will be tough to find having to take trips to Ohio State, Oregon, and Iowa. The 6.5 total looks to be right in the market.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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Nebraska Cornhuskers
Much has been expected of Nebraska with the hire of Matt Rhule three years ago. While there is a process to get the Cornhuskers even close to past glory, 12-13 over the last two seasons is not good enough for the Nebraska faithful.
Last year, after a three-game losing streak, Rhule demoted OC Marcus Satterfield and installed former West Virginia and Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen in the role. QB Dylan Raiola was given shorter and quicker passes and played his best ball of the season over the final four games and Nebraska finished with a winning season for the first time in nine years.
Rhule got his Temple and Baylor teams into their respective conference championship games in their third years. How much of a leap can Nebraska take in his third year in Lincoln?
Offense
Raiola had an up-and-down freshman season, throwing for 2,819 yards and a 13-11 TD-INT ratio on 67 percent completions. After Holgorsen took over the play calling, Raiola bumped up his completion percentage to 72 percent and threw just one pick over his final four games.
While he will run a bit more this season, Raiola will rely heavily on RB Emmett Johnson, who tallied almost 900 combined rushing and receiving yards and was used more heavily with Holgorsen calling plays. Dane Key (Kentucky) and Nyziah Hunter (Cal) were also added out of the portal to go along with returning leading receiver Jacory Barney Jr 55-447).
The offensive line gets an infusion of talent with Rocco Spindler (Notre Dame) and Elijah Pritchett (Alabama) and should be a better unit for a better offense (94th nationally) than last year’s group.
Defense
Tony White left to take the DC job at Florida State, so safeties coach John Butler was promoted to the gig. Butler wants to attack more but has an entirely new starting defensive line to try and accomplish that task.
Four starters return, all in the secondary, led by DeShon Singleton (71 tackles). Dasan McCullough (Oklahoma) comes in to help off the edge. LB Marques Watson-Trent was the Sun Belt Defensive POY last year at Georgia Southern.
This was a top-20 group each of the last two years and should be around that level although there may be some growing pains early, especially up front.
Outlook
Nebraska crossed a hurdle last year with a winning season culminating with a Pinstripe Bowl victory over Boston College.
Rhule went 10-4 in his third season at Temple and 11-3 in his third season at Baylor. A double-digit win season this year in Lincoln might be a bit ambitious, but this should be the best team in Rhule’s tenure.
They avoid Ohio State and Oregon and have five home games with three of the four conference road games that are winnable (Maryland, Minnesota, UCLA). The Huskers will not need to backdoor into bowl eligibility this year.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Northwestern Wildcats
After the Wildcats shocked many in college football by going 8-5 under then interim coach David Braun, who took over late in the summer of 2023 after Pat Fitzgerald’s termination, it was back to reality for Northwestern with a 4-8 season.
There were seven double-digit losses as the Wildcats were anemic offensively (128th in Scoring – 17.8 PPG; 122nd in Rushing – 98.5 YPG, and 130th in Total Offense).
The two conference wins were against Maryland and Purdue, who were a combined 1-17 in Big Ten play. The schedule has five conference home games, but it has road trips to Penn State, Nebraska, USC, and Illinois, so it does not get much easier this season.
Offense
This unit cannot really get any worse than last year’s group. An upgrade at QB is a good place to start as the strong-armed Preston Stone transfers in from SMU. He put up big numbers (3,197 yards, 28 TD passes in 2023), but ended up losing his job early last season.
Receiver is certainly a question mark. South Dakota State transfer Griffin Wilde (70-1,147-12) reunites with his former OC Zach Lujan, but it is a bit of a bare cupboard behind him.
The offensive line finally seems to have some talent and depth to block for 1-2 punch Cam Porter and Joe Himon.
Defense
Northwestern’s group up front is arguably the team’s strongest unit with sack leader Aidan Hubbard (6), starting tackles Najee Story and Carmine Bastone and end Anto Saka returning.
Leading tackler Mac Uihlein (85 tackles) and Braydon Brus are back at linebacker and joined by Purdue transfer Yanni Karlaftis.
The secondary has some talent with CB Josh Fussell and S Robert Fitzgerald returning to go along with Jacksonville State transfer corner Fred Davis Jr. and S Damon Walters having the highest ceiling of the entire group.
Outlook
Expectations are obviously low in Evanston and the Wildcats are certainly behind the curve in terms of NIL but will not be in facilities as a new stadium will open next season. Meanwhile, the ‘Cats are playing at 12,000-seat Martin Stadium off Lake Michigan and have two November games at Wrigley Field.
With Stone at QB, this team at least has a glimmer of hope to move the football through the air that it did not have last season, and they should be able to run the ball more effectively with a more experienced OL.
The Wildcats have a tough non-conference game at Tulane and the road schedule is brutal in conference play. However, there are a few winnable games at home and this team should be slightly improved from last year.
Pick: Over 3.5 Wins
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Ohio State Buckeyes
Perhaps Ryan Day assuaged some of the concerns of the Buckeyes faithful after winning the National Championship last season. Nevertheless, the expectations for this program do not change as the fanbase expects to compete for said National Championship every year. They also do not expect to lose to Michigan four straight years.
Only eight of 22 starters are back, and 14 players were drafted into the NFL this past April, including eight on defense alone. The attrition is not only on the player roster, but on the coaching staff as well as both coordinators depart (Chip Kelly to the Raiders; Jim Knowles to Penn State). In their places are Brian Hartline on offense and former NFL head coach Matt Patricia on defense.
The two toughest games of the season are at the “Big Horseshoe” as Texas and Penn State come to town. Both of those teams are top four in the odds to win the National Championship, but the No. 1 team on the odds board? You guessed it, Ohio State.
Offense
Ohio State has lived up to its moniker of “Wide Receiver U” having a player drafted in the first round at the position in each of the last four years. Jeremiah Smith (76-1,315-15) may end up being the best of the bunch. This year he will not have Emeka Egbuka, one of those first-rounders, on the other side (although the talent at the position is off the charts) and has a new QB in sophomore Julian Sayin.
Purdue transfer Max Klare was one of the more productive tight ends (51-685-4) in the nation even in an anemic offense. Carnell Tate (52-733-4) replaces Egbuka at the other receiver position.
James Peeples and West Virginia transfer CJ Donaldson (2058 yards and 30 touchdowns in three years) will be the 1-2 punch in the backfield running behind three returning starters on the OL.
Defense
The offense has its fair share of turnover, but last year’s No. 1 defense in the nation has even more. However, Patricia has a defensive star to build around in All-American free safety Caleb Downs to go along with outstanding corner duo Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Matthews Jr.
The starting linebackers, Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese, are also high-level talents.
It is the defensive line that is the main question mark as all four starters depart. There is talent there, including North Carolina transfer Beau Atkinson, but not a great deal of depth.
Outlook
Talent is never a question at Ohio State, but Day is counting on a new QB and a re-tooled defensive front. The Buckeyes have replaced talent before, but replacing Kelly and Knowles is a very tall task.
The schedule is no easy slate either as the Buckeyes have two teams seeking big revenge opening with Texas, who was driving for the tie late in the CFP Semifinal before Jack Sawyer’s strip sack and score sealed it, and Penn State, who may have their best roster under James Franklin.
Pick: Under 10.5 Wins
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Oregon Ducks
Oregon was the only team in FBS college football last season to go unbeaten in the regular season. That 13-0 mark included victories over Ohio State and over Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game. However, that all ended with a thud in the CFP Quarterfinals as Ohio State went duck hunting in a dominant performance at the Rose Bowl.
The Ducks had 10 players drafted last April and a lot of production leaves the program, as only five total starters (2 offense, 3 defense) return. Nevertheless, Oregon has plenty of talent and Dan Lanning has added yet another top-five recruiting class.
A rematch with Penn State in Happy Valley looms at the end of September, but the Ducks will be favored in every other game this season.
Offense
QB Dante Moore, a former five-star recruit who started five games for UCLA in 2023, has had a year in the system behind the departed Dillon Gabriel.
Moore will have some help with Tulane transfer Makhi Hughes (1,401 yards, 15 TD), the top running back out of the portal, and Noah Whittington (1,465 rushing yards, 56 catches). TE Kenyon Sadiq is a potential star to go along with WR Evan Stewart (48-613-5) and Dakorien Moore, the top freshman receiver recruit in the nation.
The OL will remain the key though as just one starter – Rimington Award candidate C Iapani Laloiulu – anchors a transfer-heavy group.
Defense
LB Bryce Boettcher led the team in tackles (94) and edge Matayo Ulagalelei led in sacks (9.5). Both are back, along with edge Teitum Tuioti (5.5 sacks) and speedy LB Devon Jackson (10.54 100m).
This is a unit, though, that will rely heavily on newcomers like DT Bear Alexander (USC) and LB Jadon Canady (Ole Miss).
The prize transfers on defense though may be in the secondary as FS Dillon Thieneman, the Big Ten Freshman of the Year at Purdue in 2023, and CB Theran Johnson, second-team All-Big Ten at Northwestern last year, come in to complement a great deal of young talent in this group.
Outlook
Lanning is 35-6 in three years at Oregon and the former Georgia defensive coordinator recruits at an SEC-type level here. The Rose Bowl vs. Ohio State was really the first loss of his career in Eugene where his team got outplayed and his staff got out-schemed.
Despite the poor finish in that game, Oregon won the Big Ten as first-year members, and they are certainly motivated to atone for that season-ending defeat.
The talent is certainly still here, but a lot of it is young talent. Oregon is certainly a College Football Playoff contender once again, but the inexperience will be a lot to overcome.
Pick: Under 10.5 Wins
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Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State won two games – SMU and Boise State – in the College Football Playoff last year before bowing out on a late field goal to Notre Dame in the Semifinals at the Orange Bowl. Any win in the Playoff is big, but the question of whether James Franklin can really win “the big one” still lingers.
Franklin is a frequent changer of coordinators, perhaps to pass some of the heat off himself. This year, he has another new defensive coordinator, the third in three seasons, as Tom Allen leaves for Clemson. Enter Jim Knowles fresh off winning the National Championship and having the nation’s best defense at Ohio State last year.
Before Penn State can win “the big one”, as in a National Championship, the Nittany Lions must prove they can beat the elite (Ohio State, Oregon) in conference and they will face both this season.
Offense
QB Drew Allar threw for 3327 yards and 24 TDs and had a 73.7% completion rate in the regular season. However, he struggled in the big games particularly against Ohio State and Notre Dame. Some of that is on Allar, but some also must fall upon a receiving corps in which the top six only caught 102 passes while now departed TE Tyler Warren caught 104 by himself.
The receiver position has been made over with transfers, including Kyron Hudson (USC), Trebor Pena (Syracuse), and Devonte Ross (Troy), who had a combined 198 catches, 2,498 yards, and 23 touchdowns.
Regardless, the Penn State offense is carried by arguably the best running back duo in college football with Nicholas Singleton (1,099 yards, 12 TD) and Kaytron Allen (1,108 yards, 8 TD). This pair will run behind Penn State’s best OL in years that returns four starters.
Defense
The Nittany Lions lost four draft picks from their top-10 defense last season, but the cupboard is not bare, as six starters return for new coordinator Knowles and the group has the potential to be even better despite losing Big Ten Defensive POY and No. 3 overall draft choice Abdul Carter.
Penn State is stacked at defensive end with Dani Dennis-Sutton (8.5 sacks), Zuriah Fisher, and Max Granville. Zane Durant is a high-level run stopper. Tony Rojas and Dominic Deluca also return at linebacker.
Safety Zakee Wheatley and corner AJ Harris could be the next draft choices from the Penn State defense.
Outlook
This is arguably the best roster that Franklin has had in State College. It is a senior-laden group that is experienced, so the Nittany Lions are “all-in” for the National Championship this season.
Nevertheless, Franklin has been a bit gun-shy in the biggest of games and it has cost his team in the past like the Ohio State game last year.
It could be Penn State’s best chance at a national title since they last won one in 1986. If the Nittany Lions cannot reach the peak this year, then when will it happen?
Pick: Over 10.5 Wins
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Purdue Boilermakers
After suffering a 66-0 defeat, the worst in rivalry history, in the Old Oaken Bucket game at Indiana, Ryan Walters was shown the door after a combined 5-19 record in the last two seasons. Barry Odom comes in from two seasons of winning a combined 19 games at UNLV. While he just constructed a rebuild in Vegas, he has his work cut out for him here, as he must not only improve recruiting, but also build the lacking NIL structure in a major way.
It also does not help matters that archrival Indiana has seemingly never been in a stronger position as a program and the fix will not be near as quick in West Lafayette.
Purdue lost 35 players to the transfer portal and essentially has a brand-new team. They also have three playoff teams – Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Indiana – on the schedule.
Offense
QB Ryan Browne started two games for Purdue last year and then transferred to North Carolina in December before having a change of heart and returning to Purdue. He will battle Arkansas transfer Malachi Singleton.
Perhaps the only strength of this team is at running back as Devin Mockobee needs 1,170 yards to pass Mike Alstott as the school’s all-time rushing leader. Malachi Thomas (Virginia Tech) provides good depth. However, both will be running behind a completely rebuilt offensive line.
Eight receivers arrive from the portal, including Nitro Tuggle (Georgia), Charles Ross (USC), and Chauncey Maygood (UCF).
Defense
Zero starters return from a group that gave up just under 40 PPG to rank 130th nationally. That is probably a good thing, but Dillon Thienemann (Oregon) is a huge loss. Six portal DBs come into the secondary including corner Tony Grimes (UNLV) and safety Crew Wakley (BYU).
Sanders Ellis (FCS Tennessee State) mans the middle and looks to be the best of the bunch at linebacker.
CJ Madden is the holdover on the defensive line but was lost after three games due to an ankle injury last year. CJ Nunnally IV (Akron) and Breeon Ishmail (Michigan) will be the edge rushers. TJ Lindsey (Auburn) and Marcus Moore (Bowling Green) will anchor the interior.
Outlook
Purdue could get off to a solid start with home games vs. Ball State and FCS Southern Illinois, but nothing is a gimme when you begin a new season having lost 11 games in a row even with a mostly new roster.
Then, it gets harder as they are likely to be underdogs in every conference game. They get five home games, but only one (Rutgers) is winnable as the rest of the slate is USC, Illinois, Ohio State, and Indiana.
Odom was a good hire, but this is a multi-year rebuilding process even with the transfer portal carousel constantly turning.
Pick: Under 3.5 Wins
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Building the Rutgers program was easier for Greg Schiano in the 2000s when the Scarlet Knights were members of the Big East. It has not been as easy in the Big Ten as Rutgers is just 11-33 in conference games since Schiano returned to New Jersey.
However, the Scarlet Knights have been to consecutive bowl games for the first time since 2014.
The program culture is there, but the NIL provides a struggle for Rutgers to keep some higher-end talent and to provide good enough offers for incoming talent.
Offense
This group put together its best offensive numbers in the last decade for the program. Athan Kaliakmanis became the first Rutgers QB to throw for over 2,000 yards (2,696 yards, 18 TD) since 2015.
While Kyle Monangai is off to the NFL, Antwan Raymond (457 yards, 8 TD) proved to be a capable backup last year at running back and will combine with FAU transfer CJ Campbell (844 yards, 11 TD). They will run behind a line that returns four starters.
The receiving corps returns some production with Ian Strong (43-676-5) and KJ Duff (27-425-1). Also, DT Sheffield transferred in from North Texas and TE Kenny Fletcher, who had 20 catches in six games before injuries shut him down for the season, returns.
Defense
Robb Smith is back for his third stint as DC for the Scarlet Knights. He will need to replace seven of his top 10 tacklers.
Linebacker Daniel Djaborne led the team with 105 tackles, but Rutgers needs a better pass rush up front, so they bring in James Madison transfer Eric O’Neill (13 sacks) and Ohio transfer Bradley Weaver (8.5 sacks), plus Doug Blue-Eli (South Florida) to plug the middle.
Cam Miller (Penn State) and Jacobie Henderson (Marshall) come in to play corner along with returner Bo Mascoe. UNLV transfer Jett Elad joins returning starter Kaj Sanders at safety.
Outlook
While Rutgers’ Big Ten record has been poor, they did win four conference games for the first time last year since joining the league.
They could be a better team than last year, but with a worse record, as the Scarlet Knights must play all the top three projected teams in the conference, hosting Oregon and then traveling to Ohio State and hosting Penn State for the final two games of the season.
The first four games are at home including three against Group of 5 or FCS opponents and then an important swing game with Iowa. The schedule is a nightmare, but the culture may be strong enough to steal a victory.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
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UCLA Bruins
Former Bruin great DeShaun Foster was put behind the eight-ball getting hired in February when Chip Kelly departed to become the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. His introduction to UCLA’s new conference at Big Ten Media Day was perhaps an ominous sign as the Bruins got off to a 1-5 start. Then, they had a three-game winning streak before finishing 5-7.
Thirty-eight players transferred and the coaching staff received a massive makeover. Tino Sunseri arrives from Indiana to be the OC to help turn around an anemic offense (18.4 PPG).
Perhaps these changes end up working, but the schedule is not an easy slate by any means.
Offense
QB Nico Iamaleava had a highly publicized falling out with Tennessee over NIL money and came back to the L.A. area to try and make UCLA Football relevant again in the City of Angels. He will have a mostly new receiving corps with transfers Mikey Matthews (Cal) and Jaedon Wilson (Arkansas) joining holdovers Kwazi Gilmer (31-345-2) and Titus Mokiao-Atimalala (28-294-1).
Only two starters return up front, so the Bruins had to hit the portal and picked up Courtland Ford (Kentucky), Julian Armella (Florida State), and Eugene Brooks (Oregon).
UCLA could not run the ball at all, ranking 132nd in rushing last season. Jaivian Thomas arrives from Cal to go along with the well-traveled Jalen Berger.
Defense
Only one starter, DT Siale Taupaki, returns for a defense that ranked sixth nationally against the run.
All-American LB Carson Schwesinger is off to the NFL, but Isaiah Chisom arrives from Oregon State to man the linebacker group with Jalen Woods and JonJon Vaughns.
The secondary is essentially all new with Bryon Threats (UCF), Key Lawrence (Ole Miss), Ben Perry (Louisville), Andre Jordan Jr (Oregon State), and Robert Stafford (Miami FL).
Outlook
The offense gets an upgrade at QB with Iamaleava and at OC with Sunseri, who was the QB coach and co-OC for an Indiana offense that averaged 41.3 PPG (second nationally).
However, the talent is still not there offensively to put UCLA in the upper half of the Big Ten and the defense is essentially all from the portal.
It is premature to say that Foster cannot get it done in Westwood, but he is young and inexperienced as a head coach and there are more ways for this to fall apart than to keep it together. Plus, the schedule has very few spots where you can circle victories.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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USC Trojans
The Men of Troy have been trying to recapture the magic of the Pete Carroll years for two decades now. Lincoln Riley has not done it yet in his fourth season.
Although it was a transition in the first season as members of the Big Ten, USC has fallen below expectations for a while now. Those 7-6 seasons do not cut it here.
USC avoids Ohio State and Penn State, but does travel to Notre Dame and Oregon. With the more difficult schedule in the Big Ten, you are seeing USC do what they never did, which is to play non-power programs and directional schools in the non-conference. Wins have certainly been more difficult to come by lately.
Offense
When you have coached three Heisman Trophy quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams), you get the reputation as the QB whisperer. Is Jayden Maiava listening? He took over the reins as the starter with four games left in the season and went 3-1 and is the clear starter this season.
While transfers hit the receiving group hard, the Trojans return their top two pass catchers – Makai Lemon (52-764-3) and Ja’Kobi Lane (43-525-12).
Woody Marks and his 1,133 yards departed from the backfield, but Eli Sanders was a 1,000-yard rusher at New Mexico last year, while Waymond Jordan was the national JUCO POY last year and Bryan Jackson led them to the Las Vegas Bowl win.
Defense
USC always has “dudes” from a skill position standpoint, but they have not had them in recent years at the line of scrimmage on either the offensive or defensive lines. A veteran core including Devan Thompkins, Anthony Lucas, and Braylan Shelby returns along with North Carolina transfer Keeshawn Silver.
Eric Gentry returns at linebacker after taking a redshirt year due to concussions. He is needed to help with a pass rush that only garnered 21 sacks.
Kamari Ramsey is steady at free safety, but the secondary has some question marks. DJ Harvey (San Jose State) and Bishop Fitzgerald (NC State) aim to improve a group that allowed opponents to complete 68 percent of their passes last season.
Outlook
Aside from Maiava’s continued development, the main keys to this season for the Trojans are getting back to what they used to be on both sides of the line of scrimmage and finding ways to win close games. USC lost five games last season by a combined 19 points.
The Trojans also went 1-4 on the road in 2024 and have trips to Oregon, Notre Dame, Illinois, and Nebraska on this slate. They will be favored in every home game but stealing at least one on the road, while not getting them in Big Ten Championship contention, will get them back into the Top 25.
The line of 7.5 wins calls for a slight improvement and that seems to be what is in the store this year for USC.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Washington Huskies
Other than Oregon running the table during its inaugural season, there were plenty of ups and downs for the other Pac-12 expatriates and Washington was certainly no exception. The Huskies went 6-7 in Jedd Fisch’s first season in Seattle. The portal losses after a National Championship appearance and Kalen DeBoer’s departure to Alabama were too much to overcome.
Washington has new coordinators on both sides of the ball as Jimmie Dougherty was promoted from within at OC and former Purdue HC Ryan Walters takes over as DC.
The Huskies are ahead of the schedule Fisch had at Arizona because the floor is higher, but the schedule is tougher even with hosting both Oregon and Ohio State at home.
Offense
The offense never could really get going in Fisch’s first season because of the inexperienced line that allowed a Big Ten-worst 39 sacks. Kansas State transfer Carver Willis was one of the best tackles in the portal and guard Geirean Hatchett (Oklahoma) came back to UW to start next to his brother Landon.
Demond Williams Jr. had a breakout performance vs. Louisville in the Sun Bowl (26/32 for 374 yards, four TD plus a rushing TD). He has an outstanding running mate in the backfield with Jonah Coleman (193-1,053-10) returning.
There is talent in the receiving room as well with Denzel Boston (63-834-9) back, to go along with transfer Omari Evans (Penn State) and freshman All-America TE Decker DeGraaf.
Defense
Six-foot-four corner Tacario Davis was with Fisch for two seasons at Arizona and is now back with him and his former teammate and fellow corner Ephesians Prysock at Washington. The Huskies allowed just 166.5 YPG through the air, second-best in the nation last year.
FIU transfer CJ Christian and returner Makell Esteen, combined with the 6-foot-4 corners, should make the secondary the strength of the entire unit once again.
However, the rush defense did not hold up in the second half of the season, so Washington reinforced the front seven through the portal with linebackers Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), Jacob Manu (Arizona), Taariq Al-Uqdah (Washington State) entering the fray along with Ta’ita’I Uiagalelei (Arizona), Simote Pepa (Utah) and Anterio Thompson (Michigan) on the line.
Outlook
There is a distinct possibility that Washington may be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season without much difference being made in the overall record.
Williams is a much better fit for the offense than Will Rogers was, and the Huskies should be more explosive there, but the line is still a concern. Defensively, they should be solid as well with an infusion of talent.
However, they are not likely upsetting Ohio State or Oregon at home, so they must try and steal victories at Michigan and/or at Wisconsin. A mild improvement to 7-5 looks likely.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins (-130)
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Wisconsin Badgers
Luke Fickell was a much-ballyhooed hire to get the Wisconsin program back to the Barry Alvarez era. However, the Badgers are just 13-13 since his arrival. Wisconsin failed to make a bowl game last season breaking a 23-year long bowl streak.
The Badgers are going to attempt to go back to basics and return to the identity that made them successful with a power running game. Phil Longo’s “Air Raid” offense always seemed like a square peg in a round hole, so Jeff Grimes comes in as OC from Kansas to build a modern power-running offense.
That is a good first step, but it will be tough to implement against this schedule that includes road games at Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, and Indiana, plus a home game vs. Ohio State.
Offense
For the third consecutive season, a transfer QB is given the keys to the offense as Billy Edwards Jr. arrives from Maryland. Edwards threw for 15 TDs and ran for five and new OC Grimes wants to implement some zone reads and play action passes to go along with the power running game.
Darrion Dupree (317 yards), Cade Yacamelli (274 yards, 8.3 YPA), and Dilin Jones, a redshirt last year, lead a deep backfield behind a line that returns three starters.
Leading receiver Vinny Anthony II (39-672-4) returns and will receive some help on the other side with Ohio State transfer Jayden Ballard along with Trech Kekahuna, who caught 25 balls as a freshman.
Defense
Mike Tressel came with Fickell from Cincinnati upon arrival to Madison. Last year, his defense struggled against the run (165 YPG, 91st nationally), so he went searching for size up front. He may have found it with UT-Martin transfer Charles Perkins and Western Michigan’s Corey Walker (5.5 sacks).
The Badgers also only gained 12 takeaways last season, so linebackers Christian Allegro, Tackett Curtis, and Louisville transfer Mason Reiger will be asked to cause havoc in the middle.
Four starters return in the secondary including 2023 All-American Ricardo Hallman and Preston Zachman, but the group will miss do-everything safety and leading tackler Hunter Wohler.
Outlook
Wisconsin has the right idea of getting back to what made them successful in the first place. Edwards could inject energy into the offense, but he has a certain ceiling and is just kind of ok.
Changing offensive concepts is certainly in order, but it will take a while for the players to unlearn the “Air Raid”.
Plus, they must do that against an absolute nightmare schedule that includes three of last year’s playoff teams – Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana – plus Alabama, Michigan, Iowa, and Illinois. This looks like a transitional year reset for Wisconsin.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
